Is BJP contesting to lose in Tamil Nadu?

At the outset, the obvious disclaimer. Because of the high language barrier and my extreme unfamiliarity with the state, it is difficult for me to say anything meaningful about Tamil Nadu. I doubt most BJP supporters are paying very much attention to TN, what with Assam and Bengal being on everyone’s mind. But, hear me out. Because I believe the BJP is working to a plan in Tamil Nadu.

On the odd occasion, losing an election can work out quite well for a party. The BJP was not going to win Tamil Nadu anyway. To win elections, one has to lose first. Till date, the BJP was a non-contender in the state. Their aim is to gather vote share and become an actual player.

Normally, it can take decades to build vote share in such a large state. But I am sure Modi and Shah have noticed the massive opportunity in Tamil Nadu. The ruling AIADMK is about to collapse. Someone has to be there to mop up their votes.

I cannot say how many seats ADMK will get in Tamil Nadu. Except for 2016, Tamil Nadu likes to give sweeping majorities and the DMK-Cong alliance is likely to get one. The DMK has also made up for its only weak link – Congress – by allotting them only a handful of seats. The DMK would have won in 2016 itself. The reason ADMK held on to power is because they won the seats where DMK had put up Congress candidates. I have often wondered why the DMK gives the Congress so many seats to contest in Tamil Nadu – this time they are not making the mistake.

So in terms of seats, I doubt that BJP supporters have anything to look forward to. The whole point is that ADMK might collapse after this defeat. While the ADMK may be going away, remember that their voters are here to stay.

At a bare minimum, the ADMK would get 30% of the vote. This voteshare has to go somewhere. And the BJP would want it to come to them. The difference between ADMK and BJP is that BJP will not collapse after near certain defeat in Tamil Nadu. The BJP will barely suffer a scratch. The BJP needs these 30% ADMK voters to know that Modi/BJP is their friend. And when the ADMK boat capsizes, these voters will move across to BJP. And so will its leaders, eventually.

In some ways therefore, it is better for BJP if the NDA loses the election rather than winning it. If the “NDA” won, it would be ADMK’s victory. Power would naturally keep their party structure and votes intact. The BJP would remain on the margins. Maybe it could wrangle one ministerial berth, but what is what worth?

This is why it is good for BJP that Congress dominated in the recent local polls in Punjab. The SAD is practically wiped out at least in those elections. If the trend continues into state polls, the SAD might collapse. The BJP will lose too, but how much did they have to lose in the state anyway? They were a bit player. For them to become a real player in Punjab, they would need one of the big players to bow out of the contest. There is always going to be an opposition vote, which has to go somewhere. Same in Andhra Pradesh, where TDP’s decimation in local polls is good for BJP. Once upon a time, the BJP was a real force in Andhra, but they lost their way once they went with TDP (one of BJP’s costliest mistakes). If it has to emerge again, it needs TDP to collapse.

One very interesting addendum to Tamil Nadu polls is what is happening in little TN, aka Puducherry. The BJP’s alliance with AINRC and ADMK is expected to win an easy victory. In spite of that, PM Modi has already visited the state. He will do another rally and Shah will do a road show. Seems like disproportionate effort to win a tiny area: BJP is contesting barely 6-7 seats in its 30 member assembly. But there is a point they are making here. The BJP wants to be very much seen as part of the victory in Puducherry. They need Tamil speaking people to feel closer and closer to BJP. And Puducherry is a near perfect launchpad for this. Just like after Tripura, the slogan was “Ebar Bangla.” It wasn’t about 2 Lok Sabha seats in Tripura, although every seat matters. It was about the much bigger state which shares the culture and language of Tripura.