In Assam, Cong doesn’t even look like it is trying

Five years ago, during this round of elections, BJP supporters were buzzing with just one question: how are things going in Assam? This time, they are quiet, almost as if they have forgotten. It’s all about Bengal this time. There itself we have a story about BJP’s relentless expansion.

The other factor, of course, is quiet confidence. BJP supporters think Assam is in the bag already. While I do plead guilty to a similar confidence, it can be a bit unnerving. Is BJP looking enough in the rearview mirror? What if there is a silent anti-incumbent surge at some level in Assam?

I have to say it doesn’t seem likely. The reasons to be assured about Assam are many. First, there is the indefatigable Himanta Biswa Sarma. He has been micromanaging every little aspect of the election, finding the right allies, doing all the calculations, dissuading rebels from contesting–everything. His calculations for the recent Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) and Tiwa Autonomous Council (TAC) polls were exactly right. Just like his calculations in every round of elections in Assam for the last 15 years or so. In the BTC case, they were so on the dot that it was like artwork. Distancing strategically from the BPF and going with the UPPL.

The BPF has now joined the UPA, but I am sure this possibility was taken into account a long time ago.

The top BJP leadership has also been very aware of the elections, with Shah doing a number of rallies already, leaving nothing to chance.

The only niggling worry comes from the arithmetic of the UPA alliance. With the Congress allying with Ajmal’s AUDF and now BPF, the UPA is assured of a pretty solid vote share. Their problems come from two sources. Their votes are concentrated : for instance, Ajmal brings with him huge margins in lower Assam where BJP did not have the slightest chance anyway. So the bloated UPA vote share becomes a bit of an academic exercise. On the contrary, the Congress will have to pay a price among Hindu voters for its alliance with the overtly Muslim AUDF. And BJP leaders have been hammering this point endlessly. This is why the late Tarun Gogoi would never hear of an alliance between Cong and AUDF. This is a different Congress, so desperate that it no longer thinks about anything.

But still, vote share is vote share. For the BJP, the biggest consolation is that the Congress is practically not even trying. The other day, Pawar sahib let slip that BJP is going to win Assam.

But for me, the biggest indicator is the way the Congress is (not) deploying Rahul Gandhi. No, not because Rahul is some powerful vote catcher the Congress could throw into the electoral battle. But because the Congress would have plastered Rahul’s face all over Assam if they thought they could win. They would make sure Rahul gets some (all) of the credit. See what they did in Tamil Nadu, where Congress is a junior partner of DMK. If there was a chance for Cong to climb on the winner’s podium somehow, the party would have made triple sure that Rahul’s name is written all over the campaign.

In Kerala and Bengal as well, Rahul is not showing his face. In Assam, the Congress is being led by Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel (lol). And I feel bad for the media chamchas who have been assigned the task of saying that Baghel is doing a good job leading the party there.

This kind of giving up is new, even by Rahul Gandhi’s standards. And truth be told, it is not particularly good for democracy either.