I wasn’t particularly worried when TDP left NDA. I was more worried when the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) threatened to leave NDA. Fortunately, it seems Amit Shah had a talk with them and got them back on board.
Because SBSP, a party you may never have heard of, is a “micro ally.” And to me, micro allies are special. For several reasons. First, they are fully aware of their limitations vis-a-vis a huge party like BJP. This means that their demands are usually small. The second thing is that micro allies help set the narrative at the hyperlocal level and win “marginal seats.”
The BJP learned a sharp lesson in Gorakhpur. Besides voter turnout, what turned the tide against the BJP is the fact that the SP candidate was from the little known “Nishad Party.” I doubt that anyone outside Uttar Pradesh would even have heard of this little organization. But with 2-3 lakh Nishads in Gorakhpur, it probably made all the difference.
This is one of the reasons I think Modi should make a direct invitation to the winning SP candidate from Gorakhpur to join BJP, along with merging the Nishad Party. For this unknown MP from a near unknown party, this would be the moment of his lifetime : An invitation from Modi ji himself. It would also create a very favorable buzz for the BJP among the backward classes in Uttar Pradesh.
The big parties, like TDP and possibly the BJD and AIADMK or some other group from Tamil Nadu, can always be wooed post elections. The thing with micro allies is that they have nothing to offer post elections, because they generally haven’t won any seats. But if the BJP allies with them pre-election, it can corner a few thousand extra votes per constituency which could make all the difference in the headline numbers post 2019.
Let me give you a quick run down of who the micro allies are. I have already mentioned SBSP in Uttar Pradesh. There is also Apna Dal, with which the BJP seems to have acquired some level of comfort, including a rapport with its leader Anupriya Patel.
In Bihar, there are LJP and RLSP, although I suspect they would likely bristle at that description, especially Paswan’s LJP. But they bring important segments of votes to the table and the BJP must do what it can to hold on to them. The big issue in Bihar will be to convince Nitish Kumar to accommodate these micro allies from the JDU’s seat share rather than the BJP’s.
In Jharkhand, the BJP has a micro ally you may never have heard of : AJSU or All Jharkhand Students Union. As much as I dislike them and their opportunism, the BJP cannot afford to let go of AJSU, especially considering that JMM, Cong and JVM-P are preparing a Mahagathbandhan.
I won’t call the AGP in Assam a micro ally, but they know what they are.
In Haryana, there is another party : the HJC(BL) that the BJP did have on board during 2014. To ring fence the seats in Haryana, the BJP will probably have to woo them back. One can always dump them later, before Assembly Elections.
We now come to Maharashtra, where the BJP has incurred a serious loss in the form of Swabhimani Paksha. That’s Raju Shetty’s party. They may have only one MP, but their influence among farmers is much more. At the moment, Raju Shetty has gone back to UPA. This is one man the BJP needs to get back.
Maharashtra, in particular, because of the hyperlocal nature of politics in the state, is full of such parties. There is the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, which the BJP has wooed to its side. You will see the utility of the BVA when the BJP wins the Lok Sabha bypoll from Palghar later this year. There is, of course, also the RPI(A). The good thing about these parties is that you can often ally with them without having to offer actual Lok Sabha seats. Often, the entire party is the fiefdom of one local chieftain and his/her few friends. You give that person a Rajya Sabha seat and all his/her votes are yours for the taking.
I have come to the most controversial part of this article. There is one more micro ally the BJP needs, a micro-ally who could seal 2019 for Modi. If only she will agree to be seen as a micro-ally. If not, a medium micro ally, in a class of her own.
Mayawati.
She has 0 seats in the Lok Sabha. Her Assembly strength is down to 15 or so (after a couple of defections) and her party coffers are bone dry. In Uttar Pradesh, the idea should always have been to squeeze BSP to nothing … and then make Mayawati an offer she can’t refuse.
Let’s see : every small “Dalit Party” across India now has a deal with BJP. Udit Raj and his Justice Party have merged into BJP. The LJP and RPI(A) are partners. Why not Mayawati?
If I were Amit Shah, I would be bargaining with Mayawati right now. The thing that stands in between is Mayawati’s massive ego. But if she can bow to SP, why not BJP? Politics is the art of the possible. There are a lot of ways to appease her ego. If she wants, the BJP can offer to create a NEDA like platform for Dalit leadership within NDA and give Mayawati the lead.
Let’s see. Mayawati has NEVER done well in Lok Sabha elections. Her best ever score is 19 seats. Why can’t the BJP give her ten Lok Sabha seats, a Rajya Sabha seat for Mayawati herself and some kind of special Dalit leadership platform for her to lead? If that is not enough, surely Amit Shah knows that the BSP leadership accepts several other forms of incentives. The BJP has plenty of that and the BSP has very little.