Kairana result is surprisingly strong for BJP

I will comment on the rest of the states and bypolls tomorrow, but today is all about Kairana.

I was waiting all day for the final numbers to emerge.

Final result #Kairana

Alliance: 481182 (44618 से विजय)

BJP : 436564

Total vote caste : 938742

— Brajesh Misra (@brajeshlive) May 31, 2018

A win is a win and a defeat is a defeat. But I always say that in every victory are the seeds of defeat and in every defeat the seeds of victory. When the BJP swept Uttar Pradesh in March 2017, I was quite somber indeed, seeing as how hard the arithmetic would get as SP+BSP+Cong+RLD would form a Grand Alliance.

Today I am quite the opposite, really upbeat seeing as how the BJP … believe it or not … is beginning to turn around the ‘impossible’ arithmetic of the Grand Alliance.

Let’s quickly run down the vote shares:

2018: BJP 46.5%  United Opposition : 51.1%

2017: BJP 38.2%  United Opposition : 57.2%

The BJP was up against an ‘impossible’ wall to climb : a gap of 19% in vote shares. So how did the BJP do in this task?

The lead of 19% that the United Opposition had over the BJP has shrunk to just 4.6%. This shows that mutual transfer of votes between opposition parties has simply failed to take off on the ground in Uttar Pradesh.

At this point you might be tempted to say: Look, maybe the Opposition didn’t get as massive a lead as they expected. But a 4.6% lead is not small and is more than enough for a fairly big victory. Spread out uniformly across Uttar Pradesh, it could be enough even to sweep the state. Are you looking to claim a ‘moral victory’?

To that I say: not at all. Because we have not yet adjusted for the biggest factor while understanding bypolls.

The turnout.

Since these bypolls do not really play any role in deciding the Central/State government, a substantial population would stay at home. Only the most motivated voters would come out. So, how many voters stayed back home in Kairana? Let’s find out.

In 2018, Kairana LS saw a voter turnout of just 54%, which is a *huge* drop of 18% from the turnout in 2014.

And here are the turnout figures of 2017 for the five assembly seats that make up the Kairana LS seat:

 

2 – Nakur : 77.56%

7 – Gangoh : 72.01%

8 – Kairana : 69.57%

9 – Thana Bhawan : 68.31%

10 – Shamli : 65.48%

This is much more than the mere 54% turnout recorded in Kairana bypoll.

No reasonable projection for the real election in 2019 can be made without thinking about these “missing” 15% of voters. The gap between BJP and the United Opposition was 4.6% in this bypoll.

It is not hard to imagine whose voters did not come out for this bypoll. Could Muslims, who are highly motivated to strike a blow against the BJP, possibly have stayed home, that too when they were given the opportunity to elect Tabassum Begum to be the only Muslim representing UP in this Lok Sabha?

Come on…

Will the United Opposition’s 4.6% margin still hold when the remaining 15% come out of their homes to vote in 2019?

This seems highly doubtful.

Now let us consider the demographics of Kairana Lok Sabha constituency. The Muslims account for around 35%, but accounting for a higher turnout among them, it may be safely assumed that Muslims make up around 40% of the votes counted today.

This means that roughly 60% of the vote came from Hindus, of which 46.5% went to the BJP.

That is a staggering 77%. More than the three fourths of Hindus who voted chose the BJP.

This is really bad news for over eager anchors who are desperate to write the BJP’s obituary. Forget alienating Dalits, Jats, Jatavs … etc from the BJP, we have just witnessed a massively polarized, united Hindu vote for the BJP in Western Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP’s performance among Hindu voters across ALL sections of society today in Kairana now rivals the performance of SP among Yadav voters and performance of Mayawati among Jatav voters!

If this level of Hindu unity repeats across Uttar Pradesh, the United Opposition is in a world of trouble.

Especially as the opposition and its media cheerleaders go into overdrive celebrating this bypoll win in Kairana. The only thing they are likely to achieve is raising the level of Hindu consolidation in favor of BJP.

Remember that it is already 77%. There is hardly a Hindu family in Kairana today where people are not smarting in anger at the defeat at the hands of Tabassum Begum. Wonder how they will react to the celebrations  of the United Opposition.

One final comment. I am not trying to take anything away from the Opposition, nor advocating for a ‘moral victory’. They won fair and square and deserve to enjoy their win. I just want to illustrate with an example.

Back when I was a little child, India would lose almost every cricket match to Pakistan. And towards the end, I would begin to cry.  My father would then intervene maturely and say: “They played better. They had better commitment. They deserved to win.”

I will say the same to BJP supporters today who must be distraught. They had better commitment. They stood in lines in the blistering heat without a morsel of food nor a drop of water. They deserved to win.

It’s official : AAP govt run schools are the worst in the country

It’s not me. It’s the CBSE saying this:

The overall pass percentage in CBSE affiliated schools across the nation was 86.7%. That’s not so bad. But this is cold comfort to the kids and their parents  whose future is at the mercy of Delhi government run schools, where the pass percentage was just 69.32%!

Because the AAP always likes to be compared to the Central Government, I should point out that pass percentage in Jawahar Navodaya Vidyalayas was 98.63%, while Kendriya Vidyalayas had a pass percentage of 97.03%.

Too bad that kids in Delhi government schools could learn neither math nor economics from the fantastic calculations of Arvind Kejriwal on the subject of bullet trains, black money and scams. Nor could they learn geography from following education minister Manish Sisodia on his travels across Europe.

I do not revel in reporting Delhi’s educational disaster. Yes, I am a BJP supporter and I would like to see AAP exposed. But I did not want it to be in this way. Not at the cost of innocent kids. Not at the cost of our nation’s future.

Folks who follow the news closely will remember that in recent years, riding on a lucky streak of modest improvements that were probably not statistically significant, the AAP had invested significant political capital in claiming some kind of education revolution in Delhi. This is what led to puff pieces like this old one from Ravish Kumar, which were dutifully shared by AAP trolls as you can see here:

MUST WATCH N SHARE MAX

Ravish Kumar – Prime Time praises Delhi Govt's Revolutionary work in the field of Education in Govt Schools.

A @sharadsharma1 Report

Thx @ArvindKejriwal @msisodia @AtishiMarlena pic.twitter.com/KPFNj7rSSn

— AAP Ka Mehta 🇮🇳 (@DaaruBaazMehta) May 28, 2018

Ravish Kumar’s droning about how education can be radically improved in “just one or two years” now feels like bitter humor. So does the cheerleading of the NDTV reporter who is raving about how the inside of a Delhi government school looks like an expensive private school.

One wonders what propaganda, what excuse what conspiracy theory will now be invented by AAP, by Ravish Kumar and other apologists to explain why Delhi government schools are the worst in the country. That CBSE examinations are rigged along with EVMs or how the question papers were printed at a press in Gujarat. Perhaps a sting operation on CBSE showing how marks of Delhi government school students are sent to students in BJP ruled states?

Expect the media to seize on such conspiracy theories and fan them to the fullest. But none of this will help the students in Delhi.

In a structural matter such as education, there is always a time lag before the impact of government efforts (or lack thereof) becomes visible. It has taken just three academic years for the disaster called AAP to trigger a collapse of the education system in Delhi.

As a corollary, it follows that as and when a new government (hopefully) takes power in Delhi, it could take another three years after that to dig the capital’s schools out of the hole. In between, five batches of bright eyed-young kids could see their futures ruined by AAP’s misgovernance. What a price to pay!

This brings to mind the lines, ‘Lamhon ne khata ki thi, sadiyon ne sazaa payi‘ (the mistake was made in an instant, but the punishment it brought endured for ages). When you are in the voting booth, it only takes a few seconds to press that button. But at that moment, the future of the nation is at your fingertips.

On big words, liberal hypocrites and silly Nehru bhakti

This is Nitin Pai, the Director of Takshashila institution. Presumably an educated Indian of the 21st century, with no real reason to carry an inferiority complex.

For the record, I have absolutely no freaking idea what ‘palimpsest’ means. However, I can use it appropriately in a sentence. Here’s how. Let me show you.

Anybody who judges Prime Ministers by their ability to use the word ‘palimpsest’ is very likely an idiot.

Now Nitin Pai’s elitism, festering along with his colonial inferiority complex, is so obvious in the tweet that we barely need to mention it separately. But, Nitin Pai is not important here. What is important is to note that there *still* exists a constituency, even among well educated and presumably well travelled urban Indians to bow in reverence before those who use big English words.

Three observations are in order.

(1) First, what does this say about our country 70 years after independence? How much bigger is this constituency among lesser privileged people in India who make the vast majority? Is that not a frightening thought?

(2) Second, if this is the impact of Nehru’s big English words in India of 2018, can you imagine the impact it had on people in the 1950s and 60s? Does this explain the generations of historians who have venerated the Nehru-Gandhis?

(3) The third is a question I have always wanted to ask of historians, hagiographers and other intellectuals. What is it about English proficiency that it is venerated as a marker of intellectual ability? Why not proficiency in some other subject, say Math?

I know that big words is the subject of this article, but I could not bring myself to move on without showing you Nitin Pai’s next tweet.

What? Scrounged around for bits of paper? Written entirely from memory? The level of gullibility in this tweet would give competition to disciples of Baba Ram Rahim.

A simple google search would reveal that the British even built Nehru and his friends a special badminton court in jail premises. How foolish would you have to be to think that he would “scrounge” around for paper …  and that he would actually find 1000 pages of paper while “scrounging” around, or that he would write 1000 pages on history from memory?

Believe it or not, I am not mocking Nehru here. I am glad the British treated him well in prison. I am mocking his gullible followers who think he was capable of superhuman feats. What is next? The great Nehru, like dear leader Kim Jong Un, learned to fly an aeroplane by scanning the manual for a few seconds?

Back to the topic of big words. If you ask me, language is about communication. Language is a living breathing thing. If my words fly over your head, then I am not speaking to you, I am talking at you. That might be ok for devotees like Nehru used to have/still has, but it is a misfit for the young, irreverent and aspiring India of the 21st century.

At the same time, language is also a marker of status and culture, a way to indicate place in society, and a way for societies to record their history. Preserving the beauty and subtlety of a language becomes a way to preserve culture.

Here is where I have noticed an obvious double standard of Indian liberals. You will notice their desire to “cheapen” Hindi (and most other Indian languages) whereas they advocate for the highest standards for the Queen’s English … and Urdu.

When it comes to English and Urdu, you will see Indian liberals discard all their interest in the “language as a means of communication,” along with all their preference for simpler words that everyone can understand. Nowhere is this more apparent than the absolute bullying that Chetan Bhagat receives from the literary community. Why? Because Bhagat’s English is peppered with Hindi words and often shows scant respect for the Queen’s grammar.

But when the same arguments for high grammar and purist choice of words are applied to say Hindi, the literary liberal performs a U-turn. The proponents of say “Shudh Hindi” are then painted as regressive, closed-minded and deserving of ridicule.

Let me give you an example from this India Today discussion on Hindi language with the ultimate man of words: Javed Akhtar saab.

Here you will see (watch from 12:50) as Javed Akhtar frowns and then bashes the poor anchor for using a simple Hindi word “ushma (ऊष्मा)” (warmth), demanding a “simpler” word in its place. According to him, any effort to use “pure” words like ‘ushma’ will choke our Indian languages to death.

If you ask me, ‘ushma’ is a fairly simple word and most Hindi speakers would know its meaning. But this is not about the word, this is about the attitude. Where are the liberals who insist on the ability to use the English word ‘palimpsest’ in a sentence? How many Indians know the meaning of ‘palimpsest’. I’ll bet many many more Indians understand ‘ushma’.

But ‘ushma’ is a Hindi word. ‘Palimpsest’ comes from the Queen’s language. That’s the big difference.

There’s author Anuja Chauhan on the panel as well, who jumps in (watch from 15:10) to explain just how terrified she is of being judged by people who speak ‘Brahmanical Hindi’. First of all, how out of touch does an English speaking liberal have to be to give a sob story about the fear of being looked down upon for poor Hindi speaking skills? Does she know how many crores of young Indians across the heartland are scared to share their ideas because they fear being mocked for their halting English?

Secondly, what’s with Hindi being called ‘Brahmanical’? Does language have a caste? How would liberals react if somebody were to say that Urdu is Islamic?

It again boils down to the double standards. Shudh Hindi (or any Indian language except Urdu) is to be bashed and despised, it’s vocabulary is to be shunned and it is to be vilified with religious and caste tags. But high brow words in English and Urdu are desirable status markers and don’t you dare connect Urdu to the Muslim community.

Here are some lyrics penned by Javed Akhtar for the mass market Bollywood movie Jodha Akbar:

“In Lamhon Ke Daaman Mein
Pakiza Se Rishte Hain
Koi Kalma Mohabat Ka
Dohrate Farishte Hain

Khamosh Si Hai Zameen Hairaan Sa Falak Hai
Ek Noor Hi Noor Sa Ab Aasman Talak Hai
Nagmein Hi Nagmein Hai Jagti Soti Fizaon Mein”

And to think he threw a fit over the use of the Hindi word ‘ushma’! Presumably all of us common folk use phrases like “Pakiza se rishte” in our daily lives. How many people know what ‘pakiza’ means Javed Saab? How many people use words like ‘falak’ and ‘talak’ and ‘noor’ and ‘daaman’ and ‘nagmein’ in our daily lives? How come you would use such words in a Bollywood song?

The liberal double standard is not about making language more open or closed. It is about creating two different castes among languages. English and Urdu are to be the high status languages. Hindi, Bangla, Gujarati, Punjabi, Tamil, Telugu, etc are supposed to occupy the low rung.

Expressways, vikas and the disaster of unholy alliances

Today Prime Minister Narendra Modi, now in the fifth year of his term, inaugurated two mega expressways. The first of these is a phase of the 14 lane Delhi-Meerut Expressway that connects the capital to the UP border. That’s right. Fourteen lanes.

The second is 135 kilometers of the Eastern Peripheral Expressway, stretching the length of the National Capital Region, bypassing Delhi, connecting Ghaziabad and Greater Noida on the UP side to Faridabad and Palwal on the Haryana side.

Some of you might remember July 2016, when a traffic jam in the Delhi-Gurgaon area came to dominate the ‘national’ news. Remember how Modi’s usual detractors in media, Congress and AAP jumped into the act and made a national spectacle out of a jam on the road? Remember?

Indeed, under BJP governments, even traffic snarls can become national news. From parts of the country administered by ‘secular’ governments, goons of the ruling party going on a murder and gangrape spree rarely makes news.

So today’s two new gleaming expressways in the Delhi-NCR region are the answer to the question the opposition was asking in July 2016. By the way, Mr. Sisodia, how is that free Wifi in Delhi coming along?

In fact, Narendra Modi and Nitin Gadkari today are following in the footsteps of the previous NDA government of Atal Behari Vajpayee. Lest we forget, here is what Manmohan Singh’s government admitted before the Supreme Court in 2013:

From the ToI report:

“In an interesting affidavit filed before the apex court, the Centre said the length of national highways in the country was 29,023 km in 1980, which expanded to 76,818 km by the end of 2012. This means 47,795 km of national highways was added by successive governments in 32 years.

However, the affidavit revealed that during 1997-2002 (ninth five-year plan), when the NDA was in power, 23,814 km of national highways was added to the existing NH network, or nearly 50% of the total length of national highways constructed in three decades. This remains the largest construction of national highways during any five-year period since independence.

In fact, during the nearly 10-year rule of the UPA government, the total length of national highways laid was much less – nearly 16,000 km, the affidavit said.”

There is a lesson for the Indian voter here. What would you rather have? A BJP government that can be taken to task over a traffic jam? Or a government under which ruling party goons regularly gangrape and murder dissenters while the crimes go unnoticed and unpunished?

A relentless, hate filled media and establishment keeps the BJP government on its toes. That is how you get BJP to build the Eastern Peripheral Expressway. That is why it so happens that half of all the highways constructed in India between 1980 and 2012 were built during the BJP’s 5-6 year term.

What can the Congress offer you? A pliant media and establishment given to covering up their corruption and inefficiency? Along with a cap with the words “I am <Insert Caste>” ?

Is that all you want? A cap with your caste written on it?

There is one more story here that must be told. Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone of the Eastern Peripheral Expressway on November 5, 2015.

If you remember correctly, three days later, Narendra Modi suffered the biggest setback of his Prime Ministership: a massive defeat at the hands of the “Mahagathbandhan” in Bihar.

The Prime Minister was able to keep his promise : in just 30 months, he has dedicated the Expressway to the service of the nation.

What became of the ragtag Mahagathbandhan that was forged in Bihar to stop Modi? It crumbled to dust under the weight of its own contradictions.

Today the nation is witnessing the formation of a much larger, much more unholy alliance. Anything to keep Modi out of power. A challenge has been thrown to the intelligence of the voter. The example of Bihar is before our eyes. In Karnataka, the circus has only just begun. The real loser in each case are the people. Will the voter rise to the occasion in 2019?

How Karnataka has hit Rahul’s prospects for 2019

The Congress has long ceased to be a real political party. It has no real cadres and not even supporters. It gets votes by promising this and that to various caste groups, while it feeds a vast ecosystem of media and academics to spew its propaganda. The Congress is really better understood as a private limited company owned by a family.

That would be the answer to the question lots of well meaning people ask: why doesn’t the Congress get rid of Rahul for its own good?

If the Congress was a political party, it would have. But the Congress is a family run business. How exactly are employees supposed to “revolt” against the CEO (Rahul) and the Board of Directors (Rahul-Sonia-Vadra-Priyanka) who together own 100% of the company’s stock?

As such, the Congress Party’s only real objective is to install Rahul Gandhi as PM, for which they are ready to ride roughshod over the ambitions of any state unit. For example, the sheer unhappiness in the Karnataka state unit is for everyone to see. The Deputy CM G Parameshwara says with much disappointment that no decision has been taken yet on a full five year term for H D Kumaraswamy. Meanwhile, D K Shivkumar says he has had to swallow the bitterness of an alliance with JDS, a party he sees as a strong opponent.

Clearly, these veteran Congressmen are unhappy. And fairly enough. But their views don’t matter. The employee’s desire for a promotion cannot come in the way of the company’s profits.

But here’s the thing. The Karnataka compromise has bitterly hit Rahul’s chances of heading an anti-Modi coalition government.

While the regional parties were happy to unite against Modi, they always assumed that the Congress would take the lead, i.e., assume the post of Prime Minister. KCR did show some intent towards advancing his own candidature for PM post, but it didn’t go anywhere. On this count, Mamata Banerjee was the most assertive of all, making it a point to show her disdain for Rahul Gandhi every single time. This was clear when she went to Delhi recently to meet Sonia, instead of Rahul.

But all this time, these were really just noises, mere kite flying if you ask me. The regional leaders were floating this stuff because …. why not? They had nothing to lose … and who knows they might get lucky?

All this changed completely the day  H D Kumaraswamy was sworn in. It was a huge honking sign telling regional leaders that the Congress is open to *any* compromise to keep Modi out of power.

This pours cold water over Rahul Gandhi’s earlier gameplan. Remember that a few days before the Karnataka election, Pappu declared that he was ready to be PM. As usual, dynasty chamchas saw in it another “masterstroke” by the maturing 48 year young boy genius. Poor Rajdeep went on another cheerleading rant about how Rahul was boldly putting himself out there as an alternative to Modi.

Now that Rajdeep has been proven wrong on every single political point he made over the last two months, let me tell you what was really happening. Rahul’s statement was directed at regional parties, telling them to back off… It was directed at folks like Mamata and KCR, telling them that Congress was not going to back off from the PM post.

But actions speak louder than words. And in Karnataka, the Congress has made its surrender loud and clear.

Surrendering in Bihar or Uttar Pradesh was one thing. The Congress has been defunct in those states for years. Surrendering the CM post in Karnataka was quite another thing. The Congress still got the highest vote share in Karnataka. It had over twice as many seats as JDS. And come on … most people would think that the Congress could actually have negotiated the JDS down to a Deputy CM post for H D Kumaraswamy.

But they didn’t.

But the Congress showed neither the risk appetite, nor the bargaining skills, nor the will to fight.

In other words, the Congress showed weakness. A level of weakness it really didn’t need to, actually.

And the regional parties have read the writing on the wall. If Congress will not fight for a lead position even in Karnataka where it is still the biggest player … surely the PM candidature is up for grabs. In the best case, the Congress can hope to score 130 seats or so in 2019. That’s not even half of the way to 272. In fact, the Congress will probably end up somewhere around 110.

Media cheerleaders who are making more and more noise about Rahul’s rising greatness would like to compare him to Modi’s “arrival” in the late summer of 2013. The fact is the two phenomena couldn’t be more different.

In 2013, the BJP actually dumped the cautious approach of the last 15 years, took a “devil may care” attitude. Valuable allies like Nitish Kumar were let go. Top leaders like Advani and Joshi were let go. If anyone else wanted to come aboard, they were welcome. Those who didn’t were free to leave. Instead of worrying about the Muslim veto and the chattering classes, the party took a plunge into the unknown with Modi.

Who remembers the heady moments of September 2013? Friday Sept 13, 2013 when Modi was announced as PM candidate. I remember beaming Vasundhara Raje telling the media : “There is a lot of happiness inside the party.” That was the key. Happiness inside the party.

Rajiv Pratap Rudy captured the BJP’s hope perfectly. “We have fulfilled the wishes of the nation,” he said.

The cadres were celebrating. The supporters were celebrating. Nobody knew what was going to happen next. They were all swept up in the moment.

Over the next several months, it was this sheer energy and optimism that took the nation along with it.

Rahul’s “ascent” has been qualitatively different, like a giant rusted spring doll being unwound slowly by a crew of galley slaves. But it’s just that, a doll. And regional leaders, survivors in the dog-eat-dog world of Indian politics, realize that. And with the Karnataka surrender, those who know how to seize the moment are more likely to prevail.

How voiceless Hindus pay the price for multiculturalism

So the so called holy month of the so called religion of peace is upon us. And, to mark the occasion, our so called pro-Hindu government has even announced a unilateral ceasefire against pious terrorists in the Kashmir valley. Good.

Meanwhile, here is what good folks have been up to during Ramzan.

From Kashmir to Kerala and to the Netherlands, Hindus continue to pay the price. Does anyone expect global condemnation for this? Of course not.

On the contrary, this Ramzan, expect global leaders to cry copious tears about “Islamophobia.” The so called irrational fear that Islamic majorities somewhere will behave like Islamic majorities everywhere. Meanwhile, Hindu society will continue to be roasted and raked over the coals about how it treats Dalits, women and minorities. Never mind that millions of refugees around the world are fleeing persecution in Islamic societies right now. How many refugees have landed on American and European shores seeking to run from the excesses of Hindu society?

Why does this happen? Because Islam has the best PR team on earth.

But this is not just about PR teams. This is also about the average Hindu who does not care about making common cause with fellow Hindus. And that is why Hinduism today is getting crushed under the chariot wheels of “multiculturalism.” 

The vandalism of the Hindu temple in The Hague will be yet another, forgotten, tiny news item. Because Hindus do not know nor care about organizing and making their voices heard.

The Dutch have one of the most free societies on the entire planet. Yet, Hindus are not able to secure their obvious rights. Why?

It’s because we Hindus just don’t care enough.

I’ll give you another example that might stun you. A couple of years ago, some Hindus in Belgium got together and demanded that a “Hindu prayer room” be spared at Brussels airport, considering that every other religion gets one.

Guess what happened? Brussels Airport rejected the demand. Why? Because Hinduism is not one of the “recognized religions” under Belgian law, unlike Catholics, Protestants, Anglicans, Muslims, Jews and Eastern Orthodox. This even means that a priest belonging to one of the six recognized religions in Belgium gets a salary funded by the taxpayer, but a Hindu priest cannot. Because our religion is not “recognized.”

Again, does anyone seriously believe that the Hindu community in Belgium/Europe lacks the resources to file a simple legal case and get our religion recognized? I am pretty sure Belgian courts will not uphold overt discrimination by the state on religious grounds.

But we don’t. Because we don’t care enough.

For better or for worse, the Hindus who are in Europe or America are obsessed with making the most of the opportunity and building a better life for themselves. While India is now the world’s 5th largest economy, it goes without saying that the average person in America or Europe still has way more opportunities than an average person in India. So Indians abroad keep their heads down and work their fingers to the bone, trying to build businesses, getting the next big promotion, trying to become doctors, engineers and scientists, trying to get into Harvard and MIT.

Where is the time for asserting themselves as Hindus?

On a fundamental level, this says something good about the Hindu community. Each individual striving for excellence, working hard and working honestly to achieve a dream. Why get into a battle of one-upmanship with other religious communities? What constructive purpose is achieved by this? Instead, live and let live.

The problem is that when other communities refuse to take this enlightened approach, you risk getting squeezed out of history altogether.

Let me illustrate this with the storyline from the 2006 science fiction comedy movie “Idiocracy” (a must watch!). An average Joe is selected for a top secret military experiment and put into hibernation but they forget all about him. Joe goes to sleep … and wakes up 500 years later.

When he wakes up, in the year 2505, he finds himself in a bizarre world run by total idiots. Indeed, the IQ of the average adult in 2505 is so low that he/she cannot even figure out the difference between a square and a circle by looking at them.

Our average Joe suddenly finds himself to be literally the smartest human being on the planet.

How did this happen? Haven’t we always thought of future humans as super advanced? The beginning of the movie explains a very profound and very under-appreciated truth:

“As the 21st century began, human evolution was at a turning point. Natural selection, the process by which the strongest, the smartest, the fastest reproduced in greater numbers than the rest … a process that had once favored the noblest traits of man … now began to favor different traits.

Most science fiction of the day predicted a future that was more civilized … and more intelligent. But as time went on, things seemed to be heading in the opposite direction.

A dumbing down. How did this happen?

Evolution does not necessarily reward intelligence. With no natural predators to thin the herd, it began to simply reward those who reproduced the most… and left the intelligent to become an endangered species.”

Remember this.

Evolution does not necessarily reward intelligence. The same way, democracy does not necessarily reward good citizenship. Instead, democracy tends to prefer the better organized. 

When it comes to the narrative, the one who makes the most noise dominates. When it comes to voting, it is the single issue voter who wins. 

Here is a simple example. Almost everyone of us here is aware of the horrifying school shootings in the United States. Polls show that a vast majority (68%) of Americans now support strong gun control laws.

Then, why is it so hard to get gun control passed in the United States? Only 25% of Americans are against stricter gun laws. In a democracy, doesn’t the 68% easily defeat the 25%?

No it does not. Here’s why.

Because the 25% who oppose strict gun laws are committed single issue voters. Their vote is determined purely by the view of the candidate on guns. On the other hand, the 68% who support stricter gun laws are likely to have many other priorities. They may be thinking about the economy, foreign affairs, jobs, employment, agriculture, immigration…anything.

What matters is not 68% vs 25%. What matters is how many of those 68% will vote purely based on the desire to see stricter gun control. Maybe 5%. This is where the 68% falter miserably.

Therefore, the real arithmetic that matters on election day is not 68% vs 25%, but 5% vs 25%. Now you see why it’s so hard to get gun control passed in the US.

Now let us think about India. Who are the single issue voters here? You know it well.

It is not about 80% vs 20%, it is about how many in the 80% are single issue voters. Probably not even 5%.

5% vs 20%

 

Liberal parasites explained — with help from nature

Remember the time Yakub Memon was executed? Did you ever get the feeling that a certain class of editors, journalists, academics and intellectuals seemed to care more for the life of the terrorist than the innocent people who were blown to bits? Do you ever get the feeling that the lives of stone pelters and Maoists and jihadists are valued more in our country than the martyrdom of our soldiers?

Remember how much of the political class had tears in its eyes when Lashkar operative Ishrat Jahan was killed? Or when terrorists were killed in the Batla House encounter? Have you ever noticed that these people heap scorn and ridicule on those who say “Bharat Mata ki Jai,”  but those who say “Bharat Tere Tukde Honge” are invited to lavish thinkfests?

This might have made you wonder : why do these people live in India at all, feeding off our land? These people don’t like Indian soldiers, the Indian nation, the majority Hindu community. These people see greatness in Aurangazeb, but they revile Swami Vivekananda. They hate India so much that they publish source based stories supporting the enemy’s propaganda line on Kulbhushan Jadhav, perhaps because they would gladly see him hanged in a Pakistani prison.

Then why do these people stay Indian?

Let me explain, with the help of a story. It’s from a Youtube video about the natural world from National Geographic. See if you can find any parallels with the fate of Hindus in India. And, by the way, if you have watched any horror movies recently, this is going to top that.

This may appear to you like a perfectly healthy caterpillar. Like you know, a healthy democracy, with mostly free and fair elections held every five years at each level (with distinguished exceptions for Panchayat polls in some secular states). The caterpillar has eaten a lot of leaves and begun to grow fat. Like India, the fastest growing major economy in the world.

But there is something else going on underneath its skin.

A parasitic wasp has laid its eggs inside the caterpillar and the larvae have hatched. Each single larva is small, no more than the size of a grain of rice. Each individual larva is no match for the caterpillar. But there are so many of them and they have infected every part of the body of the caterpillar.

The larvae are still growing and need to keep the host alive. They drink the caterpillar’s blood, but don’t touch its vital organs…yet. Meanwhile, the larvae have grown sharp teeth to cut through the caterpillar’s thick skin.

These teeth begin to saw open the body of the caterpillar. Here is the ‘Tukde Tukde moment‘ as the parasites burst into the open.

The caterpillar, meanwhile, still doesn’t have a clue. Its body is paralyzed and its brain is muddled due to chemicals released by the parasitic wasp larvae.

But the parasites are not yet done with the caterpillar. The poor creature must live on, for the wasp larvae still need it to serve an important purpose.

In fact, once they are outside, the wasp larvae are exposed and at much more risk.

Now the brutal magic trick begins. Remember how the caterpillar is supposed to weave a silk cocoon around itself and go into the pupa stage?

The caterpillar goes ahead and weaves that cocoon. But, instead of weaving the cocoon around itself, it weaves the protective cocoon around the parasitic wasps.

This happened because the chemicals released by the parasites have hijacked the caterpillar’s brain. Do you now see why the left places such emphasis on capture of the intelligentsia?

Incredibly, the caterpillar believes that it is protecting itself, rather than its enemy.

The caterpillar even sits on guard, aggressively warding off all intruders, while the parasitic wasp larvae are safe inside the silken blanket.

Ultimately, of course, the caterpillar starves to death.

There are many lessons here that we must imbibe in order to avoid becoming like the caterpillar.

The intellectual ecosystem, like the ecosystem in our natural world, is also amoral. The wasps did not have ‘double standards,’ nor did they want to discriminate against the caterpillar. They simply saw a way to thrive by fooling the caterpillar out of existence. If we let our brains be infected, the same could happen to us.

After Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh, tribals of Bengal turn to BJP

This may actually be the most under-reported story of the last two decades. No, I am not talking about just one story or one election. I am talking about a political process that has easily stretched for the last two decades, with hardly any media or academic willing to acknowledge the obvious.

This is the constant movement of India’s tribals towards the BJP. The Sangh has worked on the ground for years to establish a base among tribals. It is difficult to identify a precise “jump off point” at which the drift of tribals towards the BJP strengthened into a wave.

But if I had to, I would pick 2000-2002 as the big inflection point in tribal politics in India, when the sands shifted decisively towards BJP. There were two big things that happened in this period.

The first was the creation of the two tribal dominated states of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh in 2000. It was the realization of the legitimate aspiration of tribal people across the nation to have states they could consider their own. These aspirations were addressed and accommodated within the national mainstream without letting sub-national identities become a threat to the unity of the country. As time passed, residual feelings of alienation among tribals mostly evaporated… to the point that one could say they almost do not exist today. Mind you that all this was achieved against the best efforts of a marauding missionary mafia.

The second was more of a symptom rather than a cause. The Gujarat riots of 2002 were unique in India in the sense that they swept through the tribal heartland of the state. It showed that a sense of Hindu unity flowed through Gujarat, uniting the city dwellers of Amdavad with the tribals inhabitants of Dang district. In fact, Modi would never have gotten his famous 2002 mandate without the tribal belt of Central Gujarat rallying behind him. In that election, the BJP actually lost seats in every other corner of the state.

(Aside: Without the tribals of Gujarat, the BJP would have lost the just concluded 2017 Gujarat election as well.)

I think I have pointed out numerous times on this blog that BJP has always dominated Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. I don’t know if I have ever emphasized how widespread this phenomenon is and how it applies to tribals across India.

What about Bhil youth of Madhya Pradesh? Last year, Bhil youth sent requests to the Prime Minister asking for permission to volunteer in Jammu and Kashmir; to fight with our Army against stone pelters.

Such stories will cause tremendous acidity to the academics at JNU and other Break India forces, who have always seen tribal identities as a faultline to be exploited. You just have to show them the pride on the faces of the graduating boys and girls of the “Bastariya Brigade,” formed to fight the Communists in their last bastions.

One of the key underpinnings of the BJP’s famous win in Tripura was its tie up with the Indigeneous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), which the ruling CPI(M) (ironically) called anti-national. What the BJP did supremely well was ride Bengali support AND tribal support with elan. The party managed to soothe their mutual anxieties and create a common resistance against the Communists, the *real* enemies of India.

When the BJP made a valiant effort to enter Kerala in 2016, remember that the first doors it knocked on were in the dirt poor tribal area of Kerala. This is the part of Kerala that lives like Somalia, while the rest of the state is fattened on money from Missionaries and the Gulf.

Remember Madhu? The poor man who was tied up like an animal and lynched by tolerant Commies and Islamists? He left behind nothing except a few pots and pans in his hut. And an Indian liberaldom that was complicit in ignoring his death. Madhu belonged to this deprived tribal part of Kerala.

No wonder then that as the BJP floods into Odisha, it does so from the tribal areas of Odisha bordering Chhattisgarh. Coastal Odisha is still very much Navin Patnaik territory.

And there is a reason BJP workers like Ajit Murmu are being slaughtered in Bengal. Notice the name : Murmu. A tribal. There is a reason TMC supporting professors working at top Indian institutions are going on news channels and spouting racist hatred against “outsiders.”

Because in the struggle against Islamist forces, the Bengali tribal has taken the lead versus the Bengali ‘Bhadralok.’

Yes, the fight on the ground has begun from Purulia and Jhargram districts. The tribals are fed up of complaining about the TMC’s fascism. When the people unite, no dictator can stop them. That’s why, even in an election as rigged as Bengal Panchayat polls, the BJP has exceeded 1/3rd of the seats in Purulia and Jhargram. How far is that from a majority, anyway? And what’s going to happen when the TMC cannot use the might of the State Election Commission in the General Election?

The local BJP has also grabbed the moment with both hands. Ever since the day results were announced, the party has been touring tribal areas like there is no tomorrow, holding victory rallies, gathering its supporters, preparing them and keeping them charged up for the elections to come.

Now you know why this story goes under-reported. Because reporting it would force Break India reporters to come face to face with the shallowness of the Brahmin-Baniya tag they do desperately want to stick to BJP.

 

Why the Congress is finished in Karnataka

Congress has made a huge mistake. They are going to pay dearly for this. They might actually never recover from this.

The scenario is very simple to understand. Nobody seriously believes that Congress (78 seats) is going to support JDS (37 seats) for a full five year term. At some point or the other, the Congress’ greed will get the better of its judgement and it will pull down the government.

Guess what happens then? The Congress will face a backlash from the Vokkaligas for pulling down Kumaraswamy’s government. The Lingayats are already furious with the Congress. Between the Lingayat belt in the north of Karnataka and the Vokkaliga belt in the south, the Congress will be crushed.

In effect, Congress is riding a tiger that it cannot get off. But it will have to jump at some point and then the  tiger is going to eat them.

The Congress actually started the Karnataka election well, with a decent plan of action. The JDS had been out of power for 10 years and being a small regional party with very limited resources, it seemed like their days were numbered. The Congress plan was to destroy the JDS completely in its home base and take control of the Old Mysore region. An expeditionary measure was also undertaken in Northern Karnataka to try and divide the Lingayat vote.

Both plans flopped and miserably so.  The Lingayats polarized against the attempt to divide Hindus. And in the Old Mysore region, the Congress has now revived the JDS. The image of Kumaraswamy has now been bolstered to become the face of the state. The Congress is divided between Siddaramaiah, Parameswara and Kharge. Even if they wanted to project a Congress face to keep Kumaraswamy from monopolozing the stage, they wont be able to agree on one.

Here is a basic rule of politics. Never give up your pole position. You may never get it back.

Long years ago, the BJP made this mistake in Uttar Pradesh, after the elections of 2002. That year, the Samajwadis emerged as the largest party, winning 143 seats. The BSP won 98 seats and the BJP 88 seats.

Desperate to hold on to (the appearance of) power in Uttar Pradesh at any cost, the BJP offered the CM post to Mayawati.

By the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had melted down in Uttar Pradesh. By 2007 Assembly elections, the BJP had practically ceased to matter in Uttar Pradesh elections, which became a BSP vs SP affair. First Mayawati won a majority in 2007 and then Mulayam won a majority in 2012. The BJP was reduced to a mere onlooker.

Today the BJP is back in Uttar Pradesh, thanks to the turnaround scripted by Modi-Shah. But for 12 years, the BJP was nowhere in the state. The pole position that it surrendered in 2002 would never have come back, except for Modi-Shah.

Does the Congress dynasty really have it in its genes to perform that kind of an electoral miracle in Karnataka?

In another large southern state, the Congress has now agreed to play second fiddle to a regional party. It is only a matter of time before the Congress becomes a small supporting party in Karnataka to Kumaraswamy’s JDS. The Congress has been down this path before, becoming a support party for Samajwadis in Uttar Pradesh, Lalu Yadav in Bihar and Hemant Soren in Jharkhand.

I would call on BJP supporters to understand the real meaning of “Congress Mukt Bharat.” There is a difference between defeating the Congress in a state and making a state “Congress mukt.”

“Congress mukt” does not mean Congress living on as the main opposition. For instance, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh have seen the Congress lose repeatedly to the  BJP. But these states can hardly be considered “Congress mukt.”

Indeed, “Congress mukt” means that the Congress is neither in a position to form the government nor become the opposition. And from this point of view, what happened yesterday is actually a step forward towards Congress mukt Bharat. A JDS government with BJP as the main opposition is more “Congress mukt” than a BJP government with Congress as main opposition.

And Mamata Banerjee was the first to recognize this reality. Her tweet on this has been absolutely vicious:

Congress was third in line (technically even 4th) to be congratulated. She made it a point not to mention Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy by name AND not to mention Rahul by name. And just in case somebody still didn’t catch the drift, she spelled out that it’s a victory for the “regional front.”

In the days to come, such humiliation for the Congress will mount. The Congress for its part seems to be willing to swallow it. And when somebody is willing to offer concessions, in the relentlessly competitive sphere of Indian politics, they can expect to be taken to the cleaners.

Karnataka : No full stops in politics

This afternoon B S Yeddyurappa spoke on the floor of Karnataka’s Vidhana Soudha with tears in his eyes. As those who had been defeated in the people’s court looked on, hungrily waiting to devour the mandate. They couldn’t beat him one on one. He shook their foundations, reducing the erstwhile ruling party to a whimpering support dog.

The Congress doesn’t mind eating last, eating the scraps and leftovers, as long it has something to eat.

There is a reason the BJP wanted the proceedings of the floor test telecast live. Perhaps, both by design and by accident, the grand old man of the Karnataka BJP is delivering the all too familiar Vajpayee moment for BJP in the state.

“Hum sankhyabal ke saamne sir jhukate hain aur aapko vishwas dilate hain ki jo karya humne apne haath mein liya hai, wo jab tak rashtra ke uddyeshya mein poora nahin kar lenge, tab tak vishram se nahin baithenge…”

Which BJP supporter can forget these words?

Who can forget the delight of the Congress when these words were uttered? But the Congress would do well to remind themselves of all the water that has flowed down the Ganga since that day and ask: who has really grown in strength since that day?

Just a reminder in the immediate context of Karnataka. At that time, the BJP was by far the third force in Karnataka, with just 17% of the vote in the state. Today, Congress is hoping to play second fiddle to JDS to keep BJP out of power in the same Assembly.

When Atalji handed in that resignation, would you believe that the Congress had its own majority and its own Chief Minister in Odisha? Seems surreal….even unreal today, does it not? There was a day when Congress could actually have a Chief Minister in Odisha; today it would be lucky to save deposits.

In those days, the Congress used to be the main opposition in West Bengal. Today the Congress teams up with the CPI(M) not for power in Bengal, but hoping that their combined strength can prevent BJP from becoming the main opposition. From trying to form the government to forming a coalition to have a chance of forming the opposition…

Believe it or not, the Congress used to win seats even in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in those days. In fact, it would even aim for a majority. Others who fell short of a majority would woo the Congress MLAs and get them to defect. Today, the Congress trails the Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP meanwhile has grown from strength to strength. It has broken down nearly every demographic barrier that political pundits imagined would stop its relentless march. They tried to get a Brahmin-Baniya tag to stick to the BJP. The BJP kept its Brahmin-Baniya votes and went out and got itself OBC and Dalit votes.

And for good measure, the BJP now dominates the two tribal states of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.

They said BJP was a North Indian party, today the BJP has secured the North East and is the largest party in Karnataka and Maharashtra. In the East, Mamata Banerjee is running scared of the BJP’s rising tide. So is Naveen Patnaik in Odisha.

The day Atalji handed in that resignation in 1996, the Congress Party which had forever won power on its own, also gave up all hope of ever winning its own majority again. That day Atalji couldn’t find enough allies. Today Modi does not need allies to control the Lok Sabha. Today it is the Congress that scrounges for allies, while the BJP hunts on its own.

With today’s floor test, the Congress has consigned itself to second fiddle in one more state. It is now a footmat for a regional party.  It will never win a majority in Karnataka again.

In the months and years to come, this is a scene that you may see repeated. Perhaps you will see the BJP fall 10 seats short in Bengal, or 5 seats short in Odisha or Kerala. Some BJP leader in Bengal or Odisha will be standing where Yeddyurappa is standing today.

You will see all manner of alliances … a CPIM+Cong+TMC Mahagathbandhan in Bengal, a CPIM+Cong Mahagathbandhan in Kerala and a BJD+Cong Mahagathbandhan in Odisha.

The show will go on, with no full stops anywhere. But the forward march of the BJP shall continue. No force in the world can stop an idea whose moment has come.