Good tidings for BJP from Uttar Pradesh

First things first. Where was I yesterday?

Well, obviously, I was wasting the whole day on Twitter “monitoring trends” from Uttar Pradesh, to the extent that is possible for someone on social media.

That is why I didn’t want to say anything yesterday, I was still trying to be sure what was the mood, what the usual sources were saying.

Well, I have made up my mind now … or perhaps I can’t wait any longer to talk about it. I am now quite convinced that BJP has made a tremendous beginning in Uttar Pradesh. The party has likely taken a minimum of 40 seats out of the 73 that polled yesterday … but the way things go these days… sweeps have become commonplace. So don’t be surprised if we go past 50.

What makes me think so? Well, for one, there is Praveen Patil who did a tremendous job yesterday putting out data live. I encourage everyone here to sign up on 5Forty3 “leaf”. It takes a second and the interface is simply amazing. It is something to see how a “social network” can be integrated so beautifully into a poll analysing platform. You can find me there as “Sujoy Ghosh” (both parts of that name are fake).

The “ground reports” from Patil (thanks to our undemocratic overlords at the EC, we do not enjoy the freedom of expression to call them exit polls) point to an amazing sweep by the BJP. There is no doubt that the vote share gaps are nowhere near 2014, but that is to be expected.

Then, there are “ground reports” coming in from IBTL, which have a great track record as well (with the important exception of Bihar). Then, there are certain twitter handles that have given us correct info from survey results in the past and they all agree : BJP has swept phase 1.

Here is my approach towards opinion/exit polls (oops…sorry…  “ground reports”). Never trust any single poll. Trust only when multiple polls agree on the same thing. And yesterday they did. 

The depression in the secular camp can be gauged from these tweets as well.

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Hmmm…that is quite different from the “done and dusted” mood of the secular brigade after the first phase of the Bihar poll. “Developing still” means that they haven’t got the results they wanted.

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Ah ha! Associate Editor of HT has just realized that parties try to get an advantage by creating “hawa” in their favor. Such wisdom never surfaced at the time of Bihar elections, when Team PK went to town with rumors of Modi running away from the battle after Phase 1! Seems that the rumors going around Uttar Pradesh are not in favor of the “idea of India”.

Some of the usual suspects gauged the collapsing mood in the secular camp and tried to lift their spirits.

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LOL! Observe how even in this rumor mongering, the secular camp doesn’t have the confidence to show Akhilesh ahead. In fact they show the alliance getting fewer seats than SP alone got in this area in 2012 🙂 This is a common theme I observed with secular reporters yesterday : they were seeking out the BSP and RLD as crutches, none of them had the confidence to show their beloved alliance ahead!

To which I ask the seculars: Hey, what happened to your Akhilesh wave?

The consensus therefore between left and right yesterday is that Akhilesh has performed miserably in Phase 1. Now, I know that Uttar Pradesh is a large state. But 73 seats out of 403 is a very substantial number of seats.  So as many as 73 seats go to polls and the guy who is riding a “wave” is struggling to even get the No. 2 position? Has such a thing happened in any wave election before? What happened to the “vikas purush” of Uttar Pradesh?

Instead, I saw seculars leaning on BSP and the “vote katwa party”, the RLD. Listen seculars, it simply does not work that way. The “vote katwa” approach hasn’t succeeded anywhere in over a decade and it is not going to work in Uttar Pradesh either.

Yes, the BJP has got a stroke of luck in the fact that Western UP went to polls first, where SP was weakest and BJP was strongest. Such luck always balances out … in Bihar… the first phase was firmly in pro-JDU/RJD territory. Which is why, when you get such luck, you must grab it with both hands! And I feel the BJP has done just that. I observed a sense of purpose and determination in BJP yesterday which was lacking in Bihar. As many as the first 3 of the 7 phase election will happen in BJP’s strongest territories. The psychological battle is very important here. The BJP has a chance to demolish the morale of the SP+Cong alliance workers. From what I have seen, the BJP is deeply aware of this and working to a plan.

The geography of Uttar Pradesh favors BJP. It will definitely hold a big lead after the first 3 phases. Then comes the difficult central region in Doab and Avadh. But SP workers, already disappointed by Western UP, will have to deal with the troubling fact that the last phases will also be in BJP friendly territories of Varanasi and Gorakhpur. It will put a lot of “performance pressure” on SP workers in Central UP and the BJP has to make the best of this. An election is won as much in the mind as on the ground. Full speed ahead please… 

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18 thoughts on “Good tidings for BJP from Uttar Pradesh

  1. I’m glad that the areas in phase 1 were put in phase 1 because BJP has done well in these areas in the past and the 1st phase is extremely important because a good performance can lift the spirits of the party workers while a bad performance could have had the potential to wreck the campaign.5Forty3 thinks that even 300 is possible.I hope it’s true.This is our chance to grab a lot of RS seats and we must not let it go.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I’ve also heard that BJP will sweep Uttarakhand despite not having a CM face.I thought that BJP had the edge but I was not 100% sure because:1)they had no CM face,2)the possibility of Rawat having enjoyed sympathy after that fiasco,3)Rawat is a wily character who must not be underestimated and 4)BJP leaders in Uttarakhand(and HP too) are almost as corrupt as their Congress counterparts.But some people are saying that BJP will sweep Uttarakhand so I’m starting to become confident(was not 100% sure that BJP was ahead before).Also,since Uttarakhand sends many people to the military,the surgical strikes must have had a positive impact.Let’s hope for the best.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Regarding Goa,5Forty3 didn’t do a full survey but he did apparently have people there and I think he mentioned that BJP will win so I guess Goa will remain with NDA.Punjab seems to be a fight between Cong and AAP but all is not lost for SAD-BJP according to 5Forty3.I would be happy with a hung assembly there.Regarding Manipur,I am quite confident that BJP will increase it’s seats but I am not sure whether they will win.Punjab might be the only disappointment after the results are out but on second thought,it’s a win-win situation.If SAD-BJP win,it will obviously be great because the state will remain with NDA.If Congress wins,pro-Khalistan AAP will be kept out of power and if AAP wins,we will be one step closer to a Congress-mukt Bharat.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. And finally,regarding TN,I really hope that OPS emerges as the victor.That woman is a witch and should not be allowed anywhere close to power.I know that BMC elections are going on as well and I hope BJP thrashes Shiv Sena because they have become quite irritating of late and a loss will hopefully knock some sense into their heads.Cong doesn’t even seem to be in the picture there.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Does anyone know why Subramanian Swamy is threatening to file a writ petition against my namesake (the Tamil Nadu Governnor), because he is not inviting Sasikala? There are reports, naturally denied by the Governor’s office because they are under no obligation to confirm or deny, that he has written to the Centre saying that, in view of the fact that Sasikala is not an MLA and may not be able to contest an election (a reference to the disproportionate assets case on which the judgement is supposedly coming next week), it would not be prudent to appoint her.

      I am sorry to say that of late Swamy is acting like a joker. Does anyone else feel the same way?

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      1. Prof. Vidyasagar…..Exactly!….I too found this support by Dr.SS to Shashikala as strange…..in fact he sounds desperate !

        I thought only I noticed this…..then when checked I found lots of people Questioning this strange attitude!!

        ‘of late Swamy is acting like a joker.’…..agree totally!

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      2. Agree one hundred percent. Now I am convinced why Narendra Modi is not crazy about Dr. Swamy. What is his interest in Shashikala? Since our courts rely on “Beyond Reasonable Doubt” justice philosophy, what are the chances that Dr. Swamy will be successful in NH case? If the court gives verdict in favor of Sonia Gandhi etc., will their popularity shoot up? They will, with the help of Presstitute media, shout from the roof-top claiming vendetta.

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      3. Sorry, I beg to disagree. Swamy is saying that as per constitution, Sashikala, who has the support of Majority of AIADMK MLA’s, must be invited. We may like or dislike Sashikala. But that does not mean we should condone injustice to her.

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        1. Sasikalla is NOT an MLA. Therefore the Governor is not under any obligation to invite her. Things would have been different had she been an MLA.

          I read a joke tweet the other day: “Owner of Golden Spa resort stakes claim to be CM — says he has 130 MLAs with him.” Though this is a joke, how is Sasikala any different from this resort owner?

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  5. i appreciate your articles. What you write is a very good analysis and you are a soldier of right wing. But you are not the part of solution. You are a part of the problem. You do not have the courage to share your real name. That is typical bengali i have known. Fearful. Saraswati puja is banned in kolkata and i have seen fearful bengalis in total denial. You are doing good work. Grow some balls too.

    Nitin sharma

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  6. Hopefully BJP shall win. Because there is no ‘mahagatbandhan’. Just Akhilesh Yadav giving 100seats to Congress to lose.

    Please note – If Jats vote as Hindus and not as Hats its not because of the development nautanki of the Teresa bhakt.
    ModiSlaves will start chanting Modi because their toilet flush worked.

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      1. You are right , Mr..Joshi. This AS fellow has been ranting non stop. At least he should tell us who better than Modi to lead the country. ‘Modi did not do this.. Modi did not do that’ is all fine. But at least tell us who did what good before Modi and who can do what better than Modi in the future….

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      2. Agreed.The most stupid thing is that on most of the issues that he has a beef with Modi: RTE,Hindu Temple control etc previous BJP Govt’s didn’t do anything either.In fact, BJP voted in favour of RTE!

        So him supporting BJP but not Modi is hypocritical as hell

        anyway,i think it’s best to ignore people like these.I tried engaging with him many times,but always he would make stupid arguments and start insulting me.Now wait for him to call you “muhammed slave”

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  7. Gr CW. Lets hope BJP gets more than 200 seats easily. As enigma said, it will help BJP to increase RS tally. I was watching India TV yesterday and it was a program about who will get votes of peaceful community in UP. The reported was asking questions to ms . Every m was telling that, they were not satisfied with SP and BSP and still, for stopping BJP they will vote for either BSP and SP. Every hindu in UP should know that, ms are using their vote very carefully. The funny thing was that, not a single m told that, development was core issue for them. The moment triple talaq issue came, they were already angry. Whole crowd said that, they will never obey judgement on triple talaq. Its their personal matter and Constitution does not matter for them. I hope BJP keeps in mind that, ms are never going to vote for them. Let them go to hell. They will never understand language of development. That is not in their DNA.

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