I have been saying this from Day 1. Personality based parties are inherently limited by the following algorithm:
Let’s say individual A opens a party. Because A is the sole owner of the party and his party exists only to glorify A, we will use “A” both to refer to the party and the person who runs it.
Now, A wants to be PM. The following series of steps will explain his problem.
I) Can A win the LS elections right away? No, that seems impossible.
II) A picks a state to contest him. Maybe A gets lucky and his party becomes a major force there. Perhaps A becomes a Chief Minister.
III) A realizes that India has more than one state.
IV) A goes to another state and tries to spread the party there.
V) But a new state would need a new CM. That would make the new CM equal in rank to A.
VI) A can’t tolerate someone of the same rank.
VII) Even worse: what if A loses the elections in his state. Then, the other leader could be the only CM in his party!
VIII) A has to dissolve the party in the new state.
It’s almost like a mathematical contradiction. There is no way to win a new state without installing a new Chief Minister. And there is no way Kejriwal can tolerate another Chief Minister in AAP.
This doesn’t just apply to Kejriwal. It applies equally to Mayawati or Mulayam Singh or Mamata Banerjee or Lalu Yadav or Nitish Kumar.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP won 4 seats from Punjab. As of now, 2 of those 4 MPs have already been kicked out of the party. Kejriwal is mortally scared that someone might overtake him.
If Kejriwal couldn’t handle a meek loser like Dharamvir Gandhi, how could he have handled a boisterous Navjot Singh Sidhu? I feel for Sidhu, I really do. Yes, BJP didn’t treat Sidhu well. But, Sidhu ji, how is life treating you outside BJP? Ha ha…poor Sidhu…he left BJP because he thought his voice wasn’t being heard… lol. And he tried to go to AAP. Little did he realize that in other parties, even breathing too loudly without the explicit permission of the party supremo is crushed with an iron hand.
So, after kicking out 2 MPs from Punjab and spurning Sidhu, what does Kejriwal do? No, the Gestapo within AAP keeps eating its own tail, scouring the party for people who could be challenges to Kejriwal. The one facing the axe is Sucha Singh Chotepur, the hapless AAP state president (convenor) in Punjab.
Amazingly, his own party did some kind of sting on him showing him taking money for party tickets. The sting video was never made public. He was tried internally. Kejriwal declared him dishonest and kicked him out. ROFL!
And so it will go on as the elections approach. Each time an AAP leader shows some promise or draws a crowd or makes a name for himself, the orders will come from the top: get rid of this guy.
Punjab will tear AAP apart. Even if Kejriwal wins it.
Kejriwal cannot tolerate Sucha Singh Chotepur. How will he tolerate a sitting CM from AAP in Punjab? Maybe he could make an arrangement where every AAP MLA becomes Chief Minister of Punjab exactly for one month…that’s the only way he can keep his personal insecurity under control 🙂 🙂 Or perhaps he could get the Punjab Assembly to actually pass legislation giving all the powers of the Chief Minister to Arvind Kejriwal himself…how would Punjabis like that…I wonder?
Okay…you could say that Kejriwal will move to Punjab himself and become Chief Minister. But what happens to Delhi then? Whichever sycophant he chooses to become Delhi CM will become a threat within weeks. Most of this happens within Kejriwal’s twisted mind, so it doesn’t even matter if the new Delhi CM actually asserts himself…Kejriwal will see a ghost of revolt no matter what.
This leaves behind one last option. Kejriwal could move to Punjab and place his wife on the throne in Delhi. In that case, I just hope Kejriwal doesn’t end up becoming jealous and filing for divorce… that would be a tragedy…
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dynastycrooks 
does that not violate the law of one ticket from one family? Was that not quote to reject Sidhu’s wife candidacy in Punjab?
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He he he….in AAP whatever Kejriwal says is the rule.
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The way you put it, this sicko with a with a squeaky voice wants to be like the waitress ‘super PM’ with NAC power controlling everything from the back seat…who like a dictator will never concede power to anyone else!
What a self centered egoistic corrupt a$$ h@#% this guy turned out to be…..whom I once upon a time thought to be a simpleton!!
‘his personal insecurity under control’….lol lol…. well said!
The guy is like the school kid with ‘cricket kit’….he always wants be the captain!
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He is also more insecure than the Queen. The Queen actually trusted her sycophants. Kejriwal does not trust anyone.
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Here is what Dr. Praveen Patil says:
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Not surprising at all.One reason is what CW said,another reason is the broom saga and the other is that they peaked too early.
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And Akalis have been hitting them hard, wherever they are weak. I thought AAP would win and THEN fall apart. But Kejriwal is so deeply insecure it seems that he prefers to lose rather than tolerate a challenge within his party.
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Must give credit to 543. I knew AAP would ultimately fall apart in Punjab…but I didn’t know it would happen BEFORE polls. I had expected them to win and then fall apart.
Turns out Kejriwal is much more greedy and insecure than I suspected. Clearly he prefers to lose Punjab than have an equal in the party.
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May be that Kejriwal has realized that if he is a CM of Punjab and does not do any work, he won’t be able to blame Modi as he is doing now. So it is better to lose.
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5forty3’s tweets on UP yesterday: 1)It is now becoming increasingly clear that Muslim voters are unwilling to decisively shift towards Maya. BSP is in a statistical stagnation!,2)Under these circumstances, if BJP does not sweep UP it would virtually tantamount to an electoral crime!,3)Maya warns her core Dalit voters “through Tiranga yatra, BJP is nurturing patriotism, don’t fall for it!!” #SecularDalitLogic,and 4)Maya “BSP should no longer protest if another Dayashankar makes a similar comment against me”; Swati Singh has left a deep scar on Behenji!Highly encouraging inputs from 5Forty3.
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Dear Enigma,
You beat me to it. I was planning to link these too.
Just read someone referring to Sidhu as “Navjoke” — quite appropriate. He miscalculated badly. If Capt. Amrinder Singh wins his own Assembly Seat (he need not form the government), he would have had to vacate his Lok Sabha seat, and the BJP would in all likelihood have nominated Navjoke. Now he is a nowhere man.
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I feel bad for Sidhu really. Let this be a lesson to leaders who think BJP is not treating them well. In other parties, people are treated worse than shit.
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Indeed and 543 becomes active at exactly the right time, to prevent any panic in RW ranks due to Mayawati rallies. He has promised he will always give us the correct picture, whatever it is.
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They may just have lost a lot of Jain votes in a last couple of days and this could hurt them in Gujarat(not that they are strong there in the first place anyway but still).I hope they also contest Chhattisgarh 2018 election and split the anti-BJP votes.
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I don’t think they had any votes in Gujarat to begin with.
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I am from Gujarat and could not agree more. Gujarat is highly urbanized and economically prosperous, thanks to an agenda of inclusiveness and development that NaMo championed for 12 years. There will come a time when anti-incumbency will catch up (it is the law of averages) but it won’t be in 2017, especially with Rupani leading Gujarat.
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5 rounds of elections left before the big one in 2019.1)First half of 2017-Uttarakhand,UP,Manipur,Goa and Punjab,2)Second half of 2017-Gujarat and HP,3)First half of 2018-Tripura,Meghalaya,Nagaland and Karnataka,4)Second half of 2018-Rajasthan,MP,Chhattisgarh and Mizoram and 5)First half of 2019-Andhra,Arunachal Pradesh,Telangana and Odisha.Expecting BJP to dominate rounds 1,2 and 4.
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For 2017, BJP is assured of Uttarakhand, Himachal and Gujarat. BJP needs to be careful to prevent any mishap in Goa, but ultimately they will prevail, with a little help from MGP if needed. UP is the big challenge.
Karnataka is waiting to fall into BJP’s lap.
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In the last post, Ravinar has pointed out “Bhagedu” mental state of Kejriwal all through out his adult life. He achieves something and immediately gets bored from that achievement and tries something bigger (or different), achieves that and gets bored. Hope the ‘sucker borne every second’ will stop rewarding such Bahgedu person.
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These inherent character flaws will deeply hurt Kejriwal. Ultimately politics is a massive test of endurance and patience. Kejriwal doesn’t have a shred of these. He only has ambition, impatience and laziness. AAP is bound to fall apart.
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Excellent Analysis CW. Though I do not comment often, I am a regular reader of your blog. Earlier, you mentioned that its better to have AAP win in Punjab than Congress. Do you still feel the same? I don’t feels so after reading Ravinar’s latest post.
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Absolutely. Whenever I think about AAP vs Cong, it is a battle of mind vs heart for me. My heart wants AAP to lose, because I despise them so much. But my mind always point out that the ultimate enemy is always Congress. Congress comes to us in many forms: as Communists, as Lalu, as Nitish, as Maya and as Kejriwal…but these are just branches. The trunk of the tree is always the Congress itself.
Just think : if we want AAP to lose at any cost, who is the real gainer? Congress only, no? In that case, the shoot called AAP has done its job and managed to divert our efforts while the Dynasty celebrates.
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Typo there…I meant – “I don’t feel so after reading Ravinar’s latest post.”
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This Kejriwal is the most unpredictable creature Indian politics ever saw. He started as Anna Hazare’s tail and parted ways in midway, was hyped by Media as savior of India under the hidden agenda to save Congress from BJP’s onslaught, but despised since he started biting them too. He however later on realized that trying to tarnish image of Modiji was like spitting on mid-day Sun. The joker will be a goner soon.
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Kejriwal hates the 3 things that are most important to succeed long term in politics: endurance, patience and hard work. His laziness and insecurity will really impede him.
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No problems if Navjoke is cast aside like Robinsoe Crusoe. Kejri will declare himself as the “elected” chief ministerial candidate of Punjab. Delhi taxpayers money will flow like water (or maybe a more tipsy liquid) to appease the tipsy media to start declaring Kejri as the messiah Punjab was waiting for since the dawn of time.
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Maybe Kejru will want to create a “Delhi Punjab advisory council” which he will run and both CMs can report to that single authority.
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CW,Ha Ha too good about Kejri and his wife being divorced.
I feel your insights and take on the political situation/events are absolutely original and although readership ofyour blog on the site as well FB is increasing day by day and will continue to do so,but still it is preaching to the converted ie most of the readers would be RW.
I respect the effectiveness,logic and convincing power of your blogs and feel that it is highly selfish to not to share it with wider public.
My suggestion is that if possible please explore the chance of getting it syndicated thru either MSM or sites like First Post,Swarajyamag,DailyO so that you can influence the fence sitters and those holding opposite views to convert their support for BJP.
This is a mere suggestion you must have thought about it too.
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Dear Ramesh,
Your question is indeed the most important of all. I don’t really have any idea what more I can do to raise the readership of this blog. Even with Swarajya, I don’t know how to reach the people who matter. And I doubt Firstpost or DailyO would want to syndicate with my blog. As it is, nowadays I see that DailyO has stopped its open call for articles. My best idea currently is to hope that the Opindia guys would be willing to take me on as a contributor. I have six articles published on Myvoice.opindia and I think I will submit more regularly. Perhaps I can convince Rahul Raj to take me on as a “columnist” of sorts.
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