Maharashtra : Will a sensible Shiv Sena settle for 100 seats?

Posted on by Chaiwallah

How times change.

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Anyone remember this?

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But then, we have all learned never to take the Shiv Sena too seriously. Before the BMC elections of 2017, BJP released a series of video ads featuring a cartoon tiger and cub (but not naming any specific party). The cartoon tiger and cub are walking down a long hallway with a series of framed pictures showing fierce tigers. Both daddy tiger and cub tiger beam with pride as they imagine themselves as kings of the jungle. At the end of the hallway, however, is a mirror. When the two look in the mirror, there’s just two cats staring back at them.  Reality vs imagination.

Even now the Sena tries to needle the BJP here and there. Their decision to support a senseless campaign to “save” Aarey Forest from Mumbai Metro is only the most recent example. No, they aren’t cutting down the freaking forest, just a little patch of it so that they can build a metro that will help commuters move from polluting two & three wheelers to the most environment friendly mode of transport : the electric powered metro.

But the Sena has now had over five years to digest the Modi wave and make their peace with the new realities.

If I remember correctly, before the 2019 election, the BJP-Sena decided to go 50:50 for Assembly polls. Of course, this simply does not make sense.

All sorts of numbers are floating around now. Some say BJP has offered 106 seats to the Sena, some say Sena is willing to settle for 135 seats (less than half of the 289 member Assembly). The caveat is that BJP must accommodate the micro allies from its own share (the BJP has a lot of micro allies in Maharashtra whose names you may not have heard: I could remember just one, the Shiv Sangram Party, but there are many others). Keep in mind that these numbers are all speculation by media which may not know anything about the actual negotiations. Or these numbers may even have been floated deliberately by one side or another to test waters.

As for the CM post, I am sure that Sena has already given up on it. Devendra Fadnavis has been an exemplary CM for Maharashtra, ending some of the most endemic agricultural crises in the state. There is no doubt that he will continue as CM. I had said it a long time ago: that man is going a very very long way.

In case you were wondering what the old seat sharing between BJP & Sena used to be, here it is : 172 for Sena and 117 for the BJP. This was the distribution in every election since the times of Balasaheb until it was snapped in 2014. The alliance, or “Yuti” as it is called in Maharashtra, was formed in 1989.

My guess is that a realistic BJP would still want the Sena by its side. The BJP probably could win Maharashtra single-handedly if it tried, but only just. Dumping the Sena altogether would look bad to the electorate. And it would raise the specter of a giant Congress+NCP+Sena alliance. Yes, all three parties are in terrible shape, but never forget Bihar and the might of a combined opposition.

At the moment, it looks like the BJP will be out of power for full five years in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh (Congress recently added 6 BSP MLAs to its kitty in Rajasthan, now fully stabilizing its government). I don’t think the BJP would like to risk Maharashtra.

As such, the BJP’s baseline number for seat distribution would probably be 172-117, an exact reversal of the old Sena-BJP distribution from the Vajpayee years. But, knowing how Motabhai thinks, he would likely ask Sena to settle for 100.

My guess is that as Aditya’s star rises in his fully dynastic party, the Sena will get more and more sensible. Aditya is young. He likely has no memory of the 1995-99 rule, no memory of Sena talking down to BJP as it used to, no memory of Sena being anywhere close to power except as junior partner to BJP. He would settle for a cozy life as a respectable junior partner of BJP much more easily than Uddhav ever could.

It’s BJP all over the place in Maharashtra. NCP & Congress are almost over. Sena has few options.

Believe it or not, the most interesting entity in Maharashtra right now is Prakash Ambedkar and his Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). They came from nowhere and put up a pretty decent show in Lok Sabha polls, adjusting for being such a small party that too in a big picture Lok Sabha election and standing against the Modi wave.

Getting ever closer to MIM, the VBA is trying to put together the alliance that every liberal has always dreamed of : the minority + Dalit alliance. The formula has never worked on the ground so far. The reasons are simple enough to understand : on the ground it is mostly the Dalit who faces the maximum brunt of the aggression from the ‘peaceful’ minority.

But the VBA has reasons to be upbeat. The mood in Congress/NCP camp can only be described as one of total doom and gloom. Literally every leader is looking to escape the sinking (sunken) ship. This might leave a significant chunk of voters in quandary. Not wanting to vote BJP/Sena, they might just go to VBA.  They know BJP/Sena is winning anyway and their vote will be for a losing cause. So when they are losing anyway, why not go with the opposition that is at least trying to win? Because Cong/NCP certainly isn’t. Even Pawar Sahib appears to be sleepwalking in the election : his comments on Pakistan the other day were only the latest of his blunders.

So, if you want some excitement in the very predictable Maharashtra election, keep your eyes on VBA. There’s no question of them winning a lot of seats. But in vote share, you may be in for an (unpleasant) surprise.

 

 

 

15 thoughts on “Maharashtra : Will a sensible Shiv Sena settle for 100 seats?”

  1. A few off-topic but interesting items today.

    1. Modi’s “Howdy Modi” event in Houston on the 22st is not only sold out, but Donald Trump has decided to make an appearance. President Trump understands the importance of Indian-American, or should I say Hindu-American, voters. even if they themselves don’t.

    2. Rana Ayyub, who is now the unrivalled “go to woman” for spewing anti-Modi and anti-India venom, tweeted that Rep. Tulsi Gabbard was also invited to the Houston event but declined. (Tweet is at the end.)

    Rep. Gabbard promptly corrected Ayyub and said that she had a schedule conflict, and added:

    “However I’m hoping to meet PM Modi on his visit to discuss the importance of maintaining the strong partnership of the world’s oldest & largest democracies.”

    So, after being told off by the Indian Supreme Court, Ayyub can now add one more “laurel” to her collection.

    3. In contrast, “Ro” Khanna, an alleged Hindu-American Congressman from California says it is his duty to reject Hindutva. Please see here:

    http://www.ofmi.org/hindu-american-congressman-ro-khanna-duty-to-reject-hindutva/

    I do not know whether the Hindu-Americans of California are like the rest of the Californians and reflexively vote Democrat, or whether they are admirers of Modi (whom the Democrats hate with a passion exceeded only by their hatred of Trump). If it is the latter, the Hindu-Americans need to vote out people like “Ro” Khanna and Pramila Jayapal. Just contrast these people’s behavior in trying to score brownie points (pun intended) in their new country, with the unapologetic espousal of Islamism by people like Ilhas Omar. (“Some people came and did something [on 9/11] and after that, as a Muslim I am under suspicion” is what she said.)

    Incidentally, I had never heard of ORFI (Organization for Minorities of India), which claims:

    “Organization for Minorities of India was founded in 2006 to advance individual liberties of Christians, Buddhists, Dalits, Muslims, Sikhs, and all Mulnivasi people of South Asia by encouraging secularism, progressive human rights, liberation of oppressed peoples, and universal human dignity. OFMI believes in cultivating an appreciation for personal liberty, individual sovereignty, and the truth as counter-measures to corruption, discrimination, and persecution.”

    So basically it’s your garden-variety Islamists and Khalistanis with a few others thrown in for diversionary tactics. In short, a perfect home for the likes of Ayyub and “Ro” Khanna.

    Here is Ayyub’s tweet. Go to Rep. Gabbard’s tweet and read the replies there. They are simply hilarious!

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  2. One more off-topic item. Boeing continues its efforts to put lipstick on a pig by strong-arming international regulators into accepting the Boeing 737-800 MAX.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-airplane-faa/faa-to-brief-international-regulators-on-status-of-boeing-737-max-idUSKBN1W22H7

    Here is the key passage:

    “Boeing plans to revise the 737 MAX software to take input from both angle-of-attack sensors in the MCAS anti-stall system linked to the two deadly crashes.”

    In other words, Boeing stubbornly refuses to add a third angle of attack (AoA) sensor to provide triplex redundancy. To explain why that is crucial, under normal conditions, the two sensors would show the same value. Now suppose that suddenly they start showing different values. The flight control system would know that ONE of the values is incorrect, but has no way of knowing which one. With a triplex redundancy in sensors, this problem would disappear.

    Based on my experience with our LCA/Tejas, if Boeing had accepted that it HAD to add a third AoA sensor, it would have been halfway through the job by now. The entire process should take no more than eighteen months. Instead it continues to bluff its way through.

    So long as there are only two AoA sensors, the plane is a disaster waiting to happen. I certainly hope that the Indian authorities will NEVER permit this configuration to operate in India.

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  3. I don’t want Fadnavis anywhere near the BJP’s top leadership team. We don’t want another takeover of the BJP by sickular forces. Sorry to say, but when it comes to civilizational issues, Mr. and Mrs. Fadnavis have demonstrated clearly that they can be swayed by the sickulars, and worse, by the Church.

    I DON’T WANT FADNAVIS TO CLIMB UP THE LEADERSHIP LADDER IN THE BJP.

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    3. Agree with everybody. Also, the recent embarrassment that Mrs Fadnavis caused with her song performance calling Modi ji “Father of the Nation” or something.

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  4. In most electoral alliances in India, there is one strong party and the other party rides on the popularity of the stronger party. A good example is Congress in Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha elections where DMK gave it 10 free seats (no free really, DMK hoped for dropping of corruption cases if Congress came to power). In UP, Buaji tricked Akhilesh and then went on to win more seats. Similarly in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena is riding on the BJP strength. So it would make sense for them to accept BJP’s terms.

    That said, BJP should not treat Shiv Sena as just another alliance partner. In many ways, Shiv Sena was the Hindutva pioneer (even if a dynastic party). Ideologically, BJP and Shiv Sena are not distinguishable. Hence Shiv Sena has to find silly issues like the Metro construction to show some difference. Because of the shared ideology, BJP should treat it with more respect than say JDU.This will motivate other parties towards this ideology (or maybe give rise to new parties with this ideology).

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    1. “BJP should treat it with more respect than say JDU.”

      I agree with this. In fact the BJP top brass should dump not just JDU but also Sushil Modi who seems totally lacking in any ambition, and to be quite comfortable being a doormat to Nitish Kumar.

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      1. Remember the bad PR that Sushil Modi generated by watching Super 30 film twice while children were dying by the hordes in Bihar.

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    2. Under Bal Thackeray Shiv Sena was a real tiger in the cause of Hindutva. Uddhav tries hard but he is no where as committed as Bal Thackeray. I agree BJP should give some space for Shiv Sena but should finish JDU. Nitish Kumar is pure poison and Sushil Modi is happy being a Deputy CM of Nitish. There is a need for new leadership for BJP in BIhar. Sushil Modi is living in the past. He has not moved with the times.

      While Fadnavis is capable of winning elections, he is another of the Congressman in BJP uniform like Piyush GOyal, Javadekar, etc., Most of the Maharashtra politicians suffer from this Pseudo Secular complex which includes BJP as well. That is why Bal Thackeray is such an icon for Hindutva in Maharashtra. In a state where BJP politicians themselves walk and talk like Congress party members, he created Shiv Sena.

      Unfortunately, BJP lost Pramod Mahajan at so young an age. He was instrumental in forming alliance with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. He had a good rapport with the real tiger Bal Thackeray. All senior BJP leaders from Advani, MMJoshi, ABV, had great rapport with Bal Thackeray. One must understand why Uddhav sometimes needles BJP. He grew up in an era when BJP was a junior partner to SS in the Hindutva cause. Now he has to adjust to the new reality. It takes time to digest the new reality. BJP and SS together should totally finish off the congress and NCP in Maharashtra.

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      1. Well pointed out above by Raj ji . David Fernandez is the worst kind of appeaser and anti-Hindu by heart and action. He has retained the Home Ministry portfolio with himself for his entire term , which is being misused to play dirty anti Hindu games. The scenario in M dominated towns like Aurangabad , where Hindus are facing the brunt of anti Hindu policies of David. Going the memory lane to explain the scenario.

        Till 1985 the situation of all Hindus was very pathetic , as they were under constant attack from the peacefuls. Every festival of Hindu, Jain , Sikh & Buddhist community was celebrated under curfew, as the powerful goonda elements from the peacefuls were always hyper active. In some of the businesses like bakery, garages , the Hindus could not enter as they could face wrath of the Ms and might have cost their lives.

        In the year 1985 business people across all communities locals, Sidhis, Marwaris, Sikhs , Jains , North Indians met the tiger Balasaheb Thackeray and requested him to support them . After that meeting with Shiv Sena Supremo, the Mumbai based Shivsainiks visited Aurangabad and organised local Hindus (across all communities ) under the banner of Shiv Sena . With the charisma of Balasaheb and internal tacit support of CMs of the ruling Congress Party , the Shiv Sena flourished and the local peacefuls were at the receiving end. The local Police and administration also felt the clout of Hindus and acted in non-partisan manner, sometimes ignoring the criminal acts of local youths, who were fighting under the banner of Shiv Sena.

        Hindu youths in the age of 24-30 were getting active under the Shiv Sena local shakhas. With there muscle power , few of them got good hold over local politics and became local body members, MLAs and MPs. During this period till 2014, the local public never bothered about the peacefuls, as the Ms were fully marginalised.

        The State level Congress (and its splinter NCP) never bothered to gain ground in Aurangabad.Even the Home Minister Shri R R Patil, who was a no- non sense non corrupt politician never interfered dealings of the local Police, which was slightly baised in favour of Hindus and Shiv Sena. Hindus actually needed the support of Police as well as Shiv Sena, considering the nature of onslaught they could have faced otherwise.

        This all ended in 2014, when David became CM and Home Minister. In his thirst for power, David worked towards marginalising SS . The ground level organsiation of SS was attacked vehemently by framing charges against Hindu youths, however the M are scot free.

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  5. It is understandable that some people in this forum are not very happy with Mr. Fadnavis, but any CM which gives the state to the BJP on a Silver Platter could not have done that without pleasing the Hindutva voters. Remember Ms. Raje and Mr. Shivraj Singh Chauhan could not do that. And as with everybody else, we tend to ignore the shortcoming of person we like and exaggerate shortcoming of the person we don’t like. I have read about at least two or three cases in UP when the UP police did not register a complaint and/or FIR for many many days when a Hindu was murdered or a Hindu girl was raped. I don’t remember reading about such stories from Maharashtra.

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    1. Agreed 100%. But they won’t understand. These same people in this forum used to call someone jai italy. Many of them are here just to confuse.

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      1. I have a feeling that in the days, months and maybe years to come, the loss of Mr “Jai Itly” is going to be felt very, very keenly by the top leadership of the BJP, the BJP organisational party and the NDA; not to mention the bureaucrats and industry leaders who genuinely want to govern and make progress. Hope Modi and Shah have worked out some way to compensate for that loss.

        Also applicable – with different reasons – for Sushma-ji and others, of course.But particularly keenly felt with Jaitley.

        Still find it hard to make any sense of those losses – feels like a whole piece of history has been ripped out of the fabric of time.

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