‘Unemployment at 45 year high’ is fake liberal fantasy based on obviously wrong data

There is an old saying that if you have a favorite food, never find out how it’s made. You may no longer be able to eat it.

Today we will apply the same principle to liberals’ favorite ‘fact’ about the Indian economy: the ‘leaked NSSO data’ that shows that unemployment has reached a 45 year high.

Today we will find out how this number was calculated (cooked?). What are the components that went into this number?

So let me tell you some ‘facts’ about India.

Do you know who was the greatest beneficiary of demonetization? It was the casual workers, the ones who work in the informal sector and have to live on daily wages that are mostly paid in cash.

And do you know who suffered the most? It was salaried workers, usually the ones who get their pay credited directly to their bank accounts every month by their employer.

When demonetization hit, the formal economy apparently ran out of internet connections. Instead, the informal economy did very well, apparently because demonetization increased the availability of ready cash they do business in.

Don’t believe me? I’m not kidding. The NSSO ‘data’ actually found this. Real wages (i.e, inflation adjusted wages) of casual workers are up by 22% between 2011 and 2017. On the other hand, the real wages of salaried workers are down by nearly 20% since 2011 and 2017.

Thank you demonetization for ushering in economic justice on a scale unprecedented in world history. And thank you Surjit Bhalla for uncovering all the good news in the ‘leaked NSSO data’.

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You’ve all heard about the ‘leaked NSSO data’. The one that Modi sarkar is apparently trying to suppress. You know : the one that supposedly shows unemployment in India has reached a 45 year high. The liberal media just can’t stop talking about it.

But what the liberal media won’t tell you is how much good news is there in the same ‘leaked NSSO data’.

For instance, did you know just how well the rural economy is doing? It’s going so good that people are leaving the cities and going back to villages to enjoy the boom in the rural economy. According to NSSO ‘data’, India’s urbanization has dipped from 31% in 2011 to 29% now!

Rural distress? What rural distress?

And to think that all our media have left behind their comfortable homes in Lutyens Delhi to understand the ‘rural distress’ in the countryside. Come back! Stop wasting your time. Come back to the big city, which is now less crowded according to NSSO ‘data’! Leave the crowded villages behind and come back to our empty cities!

As if that was not good news enough, did you know that India’s population has declined too? The NSSO ‘data’ also finds that India’s population is just 107 crore people and not 130 crore people.

There is only one explanation for this : 23 crore Indians must be currently on vacation abroad, enjoying the sights of New York and Paris. And liberals say the economy isn’t doing well! Come on!

Defines belief? Yes! But these are the numbers that went into calculating (cooking?) the number of ‘unemployment at 45 year high’. You can’t choose to believe the headline number and refuse the components that went into it.

What is shocking is that until now, nobody in media or intelligentsia seems to have put in the bare minimum effort to carry out a sanity check on the ‘leaked NSSO data’. The media simply ran with it and the secular establishment was only too happy to weaponize the headline into a stick to beat the government with.

You might remember that recently an ‘auspicious’ number of economists wrote an open letter attacking the government over these supposed figures. These were supposed to be scholars, people with research credentials, people who have been trained to read beyond the headlines and cross check facts. Could they not have caught these obvious mistakes in the ‘leaked NSSO data’ with five to ten minutes of effort? But they didn’t. They jumped on the propaganda bandwagon. No surprise that most of these ’eminent economists’ were members of the left liberal complex, some had signed up with their entire families and academic descendants and some were even associated with the Congress campaign.

This is a betrayal of the trust of the Indian people in media and intelligentsia on a scale never seen before.

Propaganda newspapers, propaganda news channels and propagandist intellectuals created a storm of outrage around a piece of ‘unemployment data’ that was obviously wrong.

There is only one question left to ask. How did NSSO make such massive and glaring mistakes? Surjit Bhalla attributes this to a bizarre change in sampling and survey methods. Very well, that’s one possibility. But considering the scale on which the ‘leaked data’ was publicized and used as a propaganda weapon, we common people have to consider other possibilities. Was their deliberate malpractice involved? Did deep assets in the bureaucracy try to help a certain political party by rigging the data or the methods of data collection? We don’t know. But we do have a right to ask.

8 thoughts on “‘Unemployment at 45 year high’ is fake liberal fantasy based on obviously wrong data

  1. Sorry…… reposting a comment. I guess I was a bit too late to the NRC conversation.
    NRC may look good on paper…..but the ground reality is slightly different. The NRC in Assam was erroneous if not a monumental failure. In the districts where the demography has changed completely there were hardly any people who didn’t make it into the list. A few reasons have been put forward for this. In areas with a high percentage of peaceful people….. communal officials are not keen to work and the entire exercise was left to fellow peacefuls. Communal people also have certain restrictions when it comes to legacy…..for eg the son of Mr S Paul ….will also be a Mr Paul. However there is no such restriction among peacefuls. Mr A Ali may have a son with any surname. Apparently there have been instances where the same legacy data has been claimed by so many people that a single father had close to a thousand sons. So unless these issues can be ironed out…..a nation wide roll out of NRC will have little value.

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  2. The reason no body studies such “leaked” data is because it is not worth the time and effort. The goal of these leaks is never to improve things but to pull down those who are trying to do some good for the country. The liberal media as you say tries to weaponize everything and put out fake headlines damning the government. This pattern has got so established that by now no one believes these reports even it they are true. The credibility of media is zero and hence they might as well stop putting out garbage of all kinds (news reports, scoops, intern studies)

    Both the media and opposition now needs to shift from “Modi is so bad” mode to “How do we increase growth and wealth in this country” mode. Because when they curse Modi the first question that comes is – Why are you as the opposition still dynastic and what have you done for the country ? Do you even have a vision other than promising doles and free money ? The answers to these questions turn out to be extremely disappointing. Hence until the opposition parties stop being dynastic and stop believing that doles are all that are needed, no one will take them or their reports seriously.

    The only statistic we really need to know is that India has not done well whenever dynasties have ruled. The only ones who have done well under dynasty rule is the dynasty coterie including the liberal media. The only real progress and growth we have had is under PV Narsimha Rao, Vajpayee and now Modi. Even in the states this is true. Yogi Adityanath has brought law and order and economic growth to UP after the Akal-less debacle of the Akhilesh family.

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  3. Why these people think that voters will not use their common sense? When nobody is doubting the figures that under this government there is a substantial increase in numbers of roads, bridges, airports, railway rails, toilets construction, how can the employment go down? Nobody is doubting the figures that loans to start your own small business has gone up substantially, how can the employment go down? With such a high GDP, how can the unemployment be higher than the last forty-five years?

    BJP should announce that if you tried to find employment in the last two years, yet you have remained unemployed, you are free to vote for the opposition, but if you found employment in last five years, vote for BJP.

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  4. The problem with data in India is that they concentrate on formal sector only. It is a well known fact that the informal sector creates 60% to 70% of jobs. During the last five years millions of people have become self employed with help from micro finance through the Mudra Yojana. Just one statistic of Mudra as per the annual report of Mudra during the year 2017-18, total disbursements stood at Rs. 2.46 lakh crore!! Out of this approx. 40% was disbursed to women. More than 4.81 crore micro borrowers have benefitted from the scheme in the year 2017-18 alone!!! Mudra cards for micro enterprises has issued cards to 8.53 lakh borrowers since inception in FY 2015-16.

    Obviously, these 4.81 crore micro borrowers are self employed who do not figure in any data captured by the elitist system that was designed to only consider mainly PSU jobs which was extended to organised private sector.

    Another statistics to prove the lies being spread by the Cabal about lack of jobs, is the 1.2 crore new Employees Provident Fund subscribers enrolled during the period September 2018 to July 2018. That is 1.2 crore jobs just in 10 months!! This is the Organised sector growth.

    The actual on the ground story in cities is the increasing difficulty in finding people for doing unskilled jobs. Why would there be shortage of labour if millions are unemployed? This is a real statistic that proves that the there are babus in various ministries who are obviously cooking up figures to portray a incorrect picture.

    Millions of young people have a bright future to look forward to thanks to Modi government focus on development with responsible fiscal policies.

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  5. A few more data points to nail the lies of the Cabal spreading fake news about lack of jobs:

    448 million jobs as of middle of June 2018 based on EPFO, NPS and PPF data.
    6 crore jobs in MMSE based on CII data.
    10 crore jobs self employed sector through mudra and other schemes.
    80% increase in tax payers and 51% increase in gross tax revenue.

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