China will deeply regret its misadventure in Galwan Valley

I know that the Chinese are supposed to go by something called Sun Tzu’s “Art of War.” I read the book myself and found it quite unimpressive, full of fairly obvious stuff. But decently codified in very few words, which appeals to my taste for brevity. But one thing I can say is that there is nothing in the book about how to lash out like a fool and get completely surrounded from all sides.

When the India-China tension began, I had made one simple observation. If you look at the list of the top 10 economies in the world, China does not have a single country it can count on as an ally. In fact, of the top 10 economies, India might be the only country from which China might have some hope for neutrality in event of armed conflict. Everyone else would openly side with the United States. That is how bad China’s situation is. China may be a superpower on its own, but it does not have a single ally.

And what does China do? It charges at us like a raging bull and turns an entire generation of Indians into hardcore enemies.

Let’s see what China has achieved here. Sooner or later they will have to do a complete disengagement from whatever positions they might have encroached here and there. India is totally uncompromising on that.

Meanwhile, they have turbocharged all countries into forming a military alliance against China.

As if needling India was not enough, the Chinese state even carried out a cyber attack on Australia. The Aussie PM did not name China, but said a “state actor” had carried out the attack. The next day he went and purchased a huge cache of long range missiles, the first ever for Australia.

Who are these missiles going to point at? Everyone knows.

Meanwhile, the Indian Navy has invited Australia to join the “Malabar” exercise in the Indian Ocean. Previously, it used to be India, Japan and the United States. Now the quad is complete.

Meanwhile, India spoke up and dismissed Chinese claims on the South China sea.

Coming from India, a statement like this is practically unprecedented. India almost *never* gets involved in international matters so far away from our borders. This is a 70 year orthodoxy of the Indian diplomatic establishment. We always mind our own business. And while this policy may have its shortcomings, it hasn’t been so bad overall.

But China forced our hand. They poked us for absolutely no reason in Galwan Valley. Now India has gone into an open and tight embrace of the United States and its allies.

This is the nightmare China wanted to avoid. If you look at the Twitter timeline of the Chief Editor of the Global Times, his entire mandate seems to be to run down two countries: India and the United States. That’s quite prestigious for India, I would say. And specifically on India, Global Times has done like a dozen editorials saying the same thing over and over again: India should not be “fooled” by the US into alliance.

Because even China knows that they simply cannot take on the quad: militarily, strategically, economically. It is not even a contest. They can’t seriously hope to kill 20 Indian soldiers in Galwan Valley and then convince India to stay out of the quad by bombarding us with editorials in the Global Times.

They’ve got exactly what they bargained for and deserve every bit of it.

Sure, China has pulled some levers against India too. From Nepal for example. But, seriously? Nepal as an answer to India’s alliance with Japan and the US? That too, I really doubt how much longer Oli will remain as PM of Nepal. From what I am reading, his govt is shaking like a leaf due to internal squabbles.

The military side to this might even be secondary. On the economic front, Chinese tech companies are taking a beating everywhere. The immediate victim appears to be ByteDance, the company that owns Tik Tok. Now, ByteDance hasn’t had an IPO and so we don’t know what the company is really worth. But there was quite some reporting that private equity investors had valued the company at well over $100 billion. Even Chinese media reported that India’s ban would cost them $6 billion. Worse, India’s ban has set off a cascading effect and everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon of banning Chinese tech companies. The US is trying to ban them too. Bear in mind that America doesn’t really have the legal framework for implementing bans like we do. They have iron clad protections for personal liberty found nowhere else in the world. But the US is going to figure out a way to ban them in a matter of weeks. You’ll see.

In short, China tripped off a global alarm about its intentions. They got everyone together to form a military and economic alliance against them. The world always suspected the worst about China. Galwan Valley became the flashpoint where all suspicions were confirmed. Big mistake.

Now, Japan has thrown away its 70 year policy of “self-defense” and ordered over 100 F-35 aircraft from the US. The US has sent 3 aircraft carriers into the South China Sea for the first time ever. India is no longer minding only its neighborhood and wants to get involved in the South China sea. Australia has put up long range missiles for the first time ever.

Everyone out there has thrown away 60-70 year old security doctrines and united against China. Sun Tzu would be embarrassed at this performance by China.

4 thoughts on “China will deeply regret its misadventure in Galwan Valley

  1. Of all the enemies China picked recently, India is the most dangerous one from a long term perspective. The day the military and economic capabilities of India catch up with the sheer bravery of its soldiers, India will rip China and Pakistan apart. Even today, China will loose the war against India if push comes to shove. Both Indian weaponry and the morale of its soldiers is superior to the PLA.

    The paradrop video shared on social media yesterday suggests that in the event of war, India will also probably choke the supply lines of the Chinese forces which extend 3000 kilometers to the mainland. After that most of the Chinese troops might die of starvation and not fighting.India carried out a naval exercise at the mouth of the Malacca straits. This is a signal of its willingness to blockade the straits and China’s oil and economy.

    Indian politicians have finally shown backbone and Modi and Rajnaths visits to Ladakh is the signal that they will not roll over like Chacha did in 1962. The ferocious reprisal at Galwan has sent the signal to China that they will get their share of body bags and more if they turn aggressive. Here is another video of Rajnath with the forces, he is doing a super job

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  2. China for whatever reason has become an Equal Opportunity Offender. Forget about offending countries away from its border like European countries, Japan America, etc. The foolish Chinese premier after offending India, China also claimed territory from Russia.

    Somehow I smell something big in this foolhardy move by China. Either the political life of Premier Xi is in danger or Xi believes that when the entire world is against him, he will earn Chinese people’s sympathy or the Chinese people will see bravery in Xi which any other Chinese leader does not possess.

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  3. Chinese motivations for their misadventure are any or all of the following:
    1. The world is distracted fighting the Wuhan virus China has exported around the world and therefore is a good time to launch limited military campaigns to quickly achieve key territorial gains.
    2. To prevent the emergence of India as an alternative to China for industries that intend to shift their manufacturing from china, by waging limited conflict and creating turbulence.
    3. Deterring India from aligning too closely with USA militarily.
    4. With the help of their proxies in Indian media and political sphere paint a story of weak government in India to help the chinese stooges in the Indian political sphere to benefit from it. One can see the how Shook Laws, RahFool, Fanag, UndyTV, etc, are waging the pre-designed campaigns by spreading fake news about loss of territory and what not.
    5. Sending a message to other SE Asian littoral states in the Indo-China Sea by targeting India at the border.
    6. Winne the Pooh aka Emperor Xitler wanting to distract domestic troubles in the CCP and Chinese population on account of massive mishandling of Wuhan virus that has brought much trouble to the chinese economy with loss of jobs in millions.

    Why the megalomaniac emperor Xitler’s scheme failed to achieve its objectives.
    1. Indian Army response to chinese at the border was so devastating and hard hitting that it has destroyed all chinese calculations and preconceived notions of a limited conflict resulting in quick chinese win. Now they know they will pay a heavy price.
    2. The full backing of a strong government at the centre in India with political leadership that has set clear objectives and full freedom to operate as required to the Armed forces. This has resulted in the Armed forces mobilising in sufficient numbers and having clear goals to accomplish.
    3. The cooperation that India received from international community for its stand. Some elements of cooperation were for obvious reasons covert in nature especially intelligence sharing and will remain so.
    4. If china escalates it has a lot to lose and so at least for the present there is an attempt to sort of disengagement happening. However, the chinese intentions cannot be trusted and hence the Army is still operationally fully geared for war. It will be a long while from now before any semblance of normality is restored at the border.

    What this misadventure has cost China:
    1. It has lost all trust of Indian government and Indian Armed forces.
    2. It has cost them and will continue to coast a lot on trade front as the government quickly moved to ban 58 chinese Apps and cancelled various tenders and contracts for Chinese firms. With more action coming in the next few weeks. China enjoyed a trade surplus of around USD 60 billion and it will lose much of that trade surplus as the public opinion in India has turned against chinese products.
    3. A lot more close US India alliance is and will take place in a lot more spheres including more closer military ties.
    4. India is now more responsive to Quad initiatives in the Indo-China Sea. In the coming years this quad alliance will definitely turn into a formal military alliance not immediately but in the next 5 – 10 years time frame it will. It will happen when Indian economy reaches beyond the USD 5 trillion at prevailing exchange rates.
    5. It has also made India realise not to ignore defence capital budget which for long has been ignored in favour of other needs. This will force more fund allocations to defence in the budget. In my opinion India should at least spend 5% – 8% of its GDP on defence capital budget for the next 5 – 10 years. There should be a separate defence allocation for Opex and Capex. Capex budget should be separately and adequately funded. Much of the announced defence budget goes in meeting the salaries, pensions and other Opex.
    6. China has lost the good will of the millennial generation in India who will now grow up with a good understanding of the reality of china under CCP as a nation never to be trusted.

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  4. There is also an urgent need in India to change institutionally long held views about china within the government of India, more particularly in the National Security, MEA corps, and Armed Forces.

    China has proven time and again to be thoroughly untrustworthy and dishonest when it comes to honouring its side of the commitments under various agreements. China is not a friend of India and never will be in the foreseeable future. A clear undiluted message should go across all government institutions in India that China is an an enemy nation of India.

    China has not hidden its enmity with India and is very open about it. It has proliferated nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan, it has provided offensive missile technology to pakistan, it has been aiding NE insurgents indirectly or directly, it has been opposing India’s entry in NSG, it had repeatedly prevented UN from declaring Masood Azhar as a global terrorist, it has financed NGOs in India to put hurdles in development of key industries, it has used salami slicing techniques to encroach illegally on India land over the years, ….. many many instances can be cited.

    The fault entirely lies with India that it has not developed institutional awareness and mechanisms to treat china as an enemy nation. It is a serious national security threat that should be remedied which has not been done in the last 70+ years. This should be done by enshrining this fundamental fact across all government departments across India by having suitable policies and procedures and legislation if necessary which will ensure its implementation.

    One can see that the previous generations who held senior positions in GOI and some who still are in advisory positions in GOI are still existing a make believe world that talks with chinese will solve issues. All this talk of chinese Sun Tzu art of war is all BS bandied about by idle minds who want to sound like some expert on chinese way of thinking. This disease of over analysing the chinese fart has been rampant in the western analysts and now Indian analysts are getting infected by it! People have built their careers on such trivia.

    What the few young lads of 16 Bihar, 3 Sikh and Punjab regiment taught the chinese at Galwan about the bravery, zeal, ability of the Indian Army, is the only real take away the chinese will take from the border clash. These brave hearts have by their actions deterred the chinese from taking any rash steps further to escalate. Peace is the outcome of war. If you want peace, you have to be ready to go to war. the more the enemy knows you are prepared to give them hell the less the chances of war.

    At the point of being repetitive, I will again state that there should be a separate capital purchase budget for Armed Forces. It would be a good if an organisation is created for procurement of capital items for Armed Forces. This should be like the PSUs but however will be funded by way of grant in aid or equity contribution that will be transferred to the entity upon budget approval. Such funds will then be available with the entity to procure items when they require it. Currently, budgeted amount will lapse if not used within the year. But a psu like entity with accretions to the capital reserve annually by budgetary allocations can accumulate funds required to meet capital purchase requirements.

    As capital purchase process is time consuming, by creating a such specialised psu like entity it will standardise procurement procedures and will help in generating specialists in negotiations and contracting. Complex defence contracts require specialists in negotiation and contracting which is currently not available in the ministries. It will also have an independent board that can take quick decisions instead of routing the files through DM babudom that keeps shuttling the files interminably between various desks.

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