Four reasons we can be sure China suffered heavier losses than India

A week later, we are still coming to grips with the shocking events that unfolded on the night of June 15 between Indian and Chinese armies at Galwan Valley. The contours of what happened are amply clear : Indian troops on a patrol were ambushed by the Chinese. There was furious hand to hand fighting, in which both sides suffered casualties.

There are two things we know for sure. One, the Indian Army has tragically lost 20 soldiers. Second, there have been casualties on the Chinese side. The question is how many. The grim reality of war forces us to compare.

Given the authoritarian nature of the Chinese state, they may never officially disclose the losses on their side. This forces to put the pieces together using source based reports about Indian and US intelligence, observing China’s reactions and some basic common sense.

So here are four reasons we can be sure that China suffered heavier losses than we did in the June 15 conflict.

(1) Countries hide casualties only to avoid embarrassment.

It is noteworthy that China admitted openly that they have suffered casualties. They confirmed this on Day 1, but since then they have stubbornly refused to disclose how many. Since then, they have also been hiding behind the term “casualties,” which is a weasel word in itself. It could refer to the dead or to the injured, or both.

In the history of warfare, there is ever only one reason a country hides its losses. To save face and keep up morale of their civilians and their military.

Ironically, China claims that they are not disclosing casualties to protect the sentiments on the Indian side. This is weak sauce. And if the matter were not so serious, it would be laughable. In other words, they are willing to sacrifice morale of their own people in order to protect our sentiments? Come on. We are all grown ups here.

(2) US intel sources appear to say the same thing

US News carried a report the very next day, saying that US intelligence indicates that the Chinese side suffered 35 casualties. They have repeated the figure today from US intel sources and provided more details about who ordered the ambush on the Chinese side.

These reports have since gone viral on the internet and have been widely quoted by Indian media. Even with China’s strict censorship, it is near impossible that the reports haven’t reached the Chinese public. If nothing else, there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese students and professionals working abroad, who will see these reports and mention them to folks back home.

China has not tried to contradict or even discredit these reports, officially or unofficially. They have not offered even the slightest assurance to the Chinese public against them.

(3) China has a recent history of hiding deaths due to Coronavirus

Officially, China claims to have suffered only 4,634 deaths due to the Wuhan Coronavirus. It would be hard to find any rational person who takes this number seriously.

There are studies that estimate over 35000 people could have died in Wuhan city alone, when the official death toll for the whole of China is not even 5000.

If China can hide literally tens of thousands, possibly even lakhs of deaths with such ease, it is really not difficult for them to conceal a few dozen deaths on the LAC.

(4) China’s childish efforts to keep morale high on their side

It’s not like China has done nothing to keep morale high on their side. They could have been adults about it and revealed their casualty figures. Instead, we have seen propaganda that can only be considered childish.

As if this poster of live fire from Chinese batteries is supposed to scare us. In fact, on the day after the conflict, Chinese mouthpiece Global Times and its editors and reporters said an astonishing number of times that China is “not scared” of India. The kind of desperate self-assurance that you would hardly expect from a winner.

They literally said that again yesterday, along with another high resolution picture of a soldier.

It’s not clear whether China is trying to intimidate us or showing off their photo editing skills. And here is China showing that its soldiers can perform circus tricks.

I think they had another one today, of Chinese soldiers grabbing their guns while waking up from sleep. One guy wakes up quickly and spins his cap around with a flourish. It is possible this video was taken during a school trip, intended to make third graders start clapping their adorable little hands.

Again, if the matter were not so serious, we could just laugh. We don’t have time for that. Instead, the Indian public must ask itself two questions.

(1) Who is helping China wage psychological war and why?

Having fared badly in the ground conflict, China is only left with psychological warfare. The posters and videos from Global Times won’t scare the Indian public. But since the morning of June 16, there have been certain cartels on the Indian side who have been trying to run down our morale. Trying to create visions of China pulling off some huge military victory and humiliating us.

Who are these people and what is their motivation? Could these be frustrated people who want the BJP to lose power at any cost? Could these be frustrated weapons dalals who have been put out of business by the Modi government?

(2) Who prepared the ground for the Chinese propaganda offensive and why?

China is not a democracy and will not become one in the foreseeable future. For China, the only hope of turning global opinion against India was to project India as an authoritarian, fascist state. In particular, they would like the world to think of the Indian government as run by Nazi sympathizers and the Indian Army as brutal occupiers. Above all, they want the world to think India “annexed” Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh in Aug 2019.

Now, who on the Indian side has been saying exactly these things defaming India for the last 6-9 months? How come their rhetoric matches so perfectly with what China wants everyone to hear? What were the real motivations and real incentives of those who were defaming India.

At the LAC, the Indian Army has given a befitting response to the Chinese on the night of June 15. But China may have a shadow army operating very deep within our borders. Are we prepared for that?

7 thoughts on “Four reasons we can be sure China suffered heavier losses than India

  1. The Chinese shadow army is led by ex army officers Ajai Shukla and Praveen Sawhney. This is the sad part. Ajai Shukla was egging the army to fight by spreading false news. Sawhney was saying that when China waves its Artificial Intelligence wand, the Indian army will collapse.

    As it turned out, the Galwan Balwans hammered the Chinese into submission even when heavily outnumbered. What is more, the Chinese had sent their special forces, their best trained warriors to this fight. Ordinary troopers from India bested the best of the Chinese forces. Even under an ambush.

    Sadly we lost 20 of the bravest. Each of them deserve a Param Vir Chakra. Because it is incidents like these that create fear in the hearts of the enemy.Not some propaganda images that seem to be from World War 2 movies.

    The Chinese soldiers are not made out of iron but of far inferior material than Indian soldiers are. Our hero soldiers have showed that the dragon may actually be a mickey mouse. Maybe the next Bruce Lee movie should be titled “Enter the Mickey Mouse”

    Liked by 2 people

      1. Yes Panag is in the same bucket. Former Admiral Ramdas is another one.

        It is shocking that Indian army recruited these types in the officer cadre. I bet we wont find a single one like these in the jawans

        Liked by 1 person

  2. What we know is at the time of the conflict, the Chinese position was advantageous. They were on the hill while Indian Jawans down under. This would definitely give a substantially advantageous to Chinese troops if the guns were used but in hand-to-hand combat, that advantage goes away.

    Another important point CW you missed is the news about a substantial increase in activities of the Chinese helicopters after the conflict was over, presumably for ferrying out dead and injured Chinese soldiers.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. War looks inevitable as China is saying one thing and doing another thing. These so called talks are only for buying time

    India should find some pressure point on the border and pressure China there. It could be the Tibet border. India must also prepare for a naval blockade of Chinese ships.


  4. The insidious elements in media, retired army men, political parties, bureaucracy, India CCP, etc. inside India cultivated and funded by chinese act as the extended arm of CCP china by waging information warfare on behalf of china. They act as propaganda outlets of chinese CCP.

    The GOI should closely track the money trail from CCP China to these propaganda elements in India and take action to destroy the nexus by targeting the money source. Some of such money is channeled to offshore accounts abroad. A closer scrutiny of “investments” from china / Hong Kong into obscure ‘startups’ and other companies is needed. It will throw up some interesting results! I best some of these companies would have already been wound up having served the purpose!!

    Liked by 1 person

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