Here is a graph. But it doesn’t show the increase in number of Wuhan Coronavirus cases in India, US or anywhere.
Instead what it shows is the amount of time that people have spent looking at exponential graphs over the last several months.
Okay, I stole that joke from somewhere on Facebook. My sense of humor is not nearly as good.
By now we know, it’s all about growth rates and not absolute numbers. Which is why even a horrifying statistic such as this qualifies as good news, sending global markets roaring upwards.
For almost a month now, in terms of Coronavirus deaths, the US has been experiencing the equivalent of 9/11 every 2 days. But what counts is that the rate of increase has dropped from over 20% to 15%, then 10-15%, then below 10% and now in the 5% range. Devastated countries like Italy or France are now in the 2-3% range.
One of the merciful things I have noticed about the Coronavirus is that it tends to respond to government strictures. Even when you might feel that things are already out of control. Italy and France were gasping for breath before they woke up and did something. The US was approaching 1 lakh cases when they got serious. But even these delayed measures, coming ridiculously late in the day, showed real effects.
The US and Europe are now well on their road to recovery. Initially, the fear was that only China could enforce the kind of lockdown needed to stop the virus. Or you had to be a country with a superbly disciplined populace, such as Japan, Singapore or Korea. Luckily, that fear did not come true. Owing to the hopelessly federal structure of the United States, the lockdowns there were patchy at worst. But it still showed results.
We now have three big examples of places that were under siege from the virus, but managed to get out of trouble. China, the United States and Europe. There is hope for everyone.
India moved very early. One of the problems is the incubation period of the virus, which could be 14 days. That means, if you do a 21 day lockdown, you don’t even know until the 14th day whether it is working. We are finally about 10 days beyond the incubation period of the virus, counting since the day the lockdown began.
And luckily, the numbers definitely seem encouraging
Apr 1: 25.9%
Apr 2: 23.6%
Apr 3: 22%
Apr 4: 18.6%
Apr 5: 16.5%
Apr 6: 11.3%
Apr 7: 12%
Apr 8: 10.5%
Apr 9: 13.7%
Apr 10: 12.9%
Apr 11: 11.2%
Apr 12: 8.9%
Apr 13: 13.5%
Apr 14: 10%
Apr 15: 7.6%
Apr 16: 8.5%
YES! It’s working. The numbers jump up and down a little, but nobody can doubt that the overall trend is sharply downwards. We have gone from over 20% levels to under 10% levels.
The lockdown is working!
We have seen this in several countries by now. Once the curve begins to flatten, it really does go down. We are looking at over two weeks worth of data here.
Obviously, concerns remain. Mumbai has emerged as a hotspot. But you could take solace from the fact that Singapore has over 4000 cases of the virus, with 728 reported yesterday. Sure, maybe Mumbai’s number of 2000 is under reported. But by how much? What if the real number is 5 times that? Even such an outrageous assumption estimates the real number of cases in Mumbai at 10,000. Now bear in mind that Mumbai has four times the population of Singapore.
A month ago, the pandemic in India was still taking off. We were still talking in terms of around 100 cases per day. With the grim situation in Italy, we wondered how our health infrastructure would cope. We have problems, but we might be pulling off something exemplary here.
The fact that we are doing well shows in the desperation of our enemies. The other day, BBC sent a reporter to found one doctor in Mumbai to say that he might have come across 6 deaths that could have been due to Corona, but were not counted in the official toll. I should warn you … the so called doctor made his allegation anonymously. We have literally no reason to trust even a single word from the BBC. So for all you know, this so called doctor could be any random person located anywhere in the world.
But even then, think about BBC’s big expose on India’s so called underreporting…
Here’s the UK, meanwhile.
As many as 2000 old age homes in the UK are infected. We know just how lethal the virus is to old people. These hapless folks are now dying all over the place and the helpless third world country called the UK can’t even count them.
Even the official count in the UK has now touched 14,000 deaths. Explains why BBC could be resorting to desperate measures against India for the emotional security of the British public.
I bet Indian liberals promised their global elite friends that there would be thousands of dead bodies floating down the “Ganges.” But time is passing and the dead bodies aren’t showing up. For that matter, there is no river called Ganges either. If some liberal wants, they can leak to the global elite about Indians secretly referring to some “Ganga” in their own languages. Who knows, it might be a sinister plot. Who knows, the liberal that exposes this conspiracy might get a few pennies tossed their way from the XYZ Times.
The BBC is our enemy, but ordinary British people certainly are not. I suggest common Indians put out this message loudly on social media so that common folks in Britain can hear. My British friends, your elites are hiding from you the reality of the UK being a third world country. They don’t even want to count the thousands of people who are dying of Wuhan Coronavirus in your country right now. To distract you, they are giving you fanciful stories about people secretly dying horrible deaths in India. Sadly for you, the real third world slum like situation is in London, not Mumbai. Tell your elites to stop fooling you and stop poking around in India. Tell your elites to do something your country, instead of lying about ours.