What if India is beginning to flatten the curve?

Here is a graph. But it doesn’t show the increase in number of Wuhan Coronavirus cases in India, US or anywhere.

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Instead what it shows is the amount of time that people have spent looking at exponential graphs over the last several months.

Okay, I stole that joke from somewhere on Facebook. My sense of humor is not nearly as good.

By now we know, it’s all about growth rates and not absolute numbers. Which is why even a horrifying statistic such as this qualifies as good news, sending global markets roaring upwards.

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For almost a month now, in terms of Coronavirus deaths, the US has been experiencing the equivalent of 9/11 every 2 days. But what counts is that the rate of increase has dropped from over 20% to 15%, then 10-15%, then below 10% and now in the 5% range. Devastated countries like Italy or France are now in the 2-3% range.

One of the merciful things I have noticed about the Coronavirus is that it tends to respond to government strictures. Even when you might feel that things are already out of control. Italy and France were gasping for breath before they woke up and did something. The US was approaching 1 lakh cases when they got serious. But even these delayed measures, coming ridiculously late in the day, showed real effects.

The US and Europe are now well on their road to recovery. Initially, the fear was that only China could enforce the kind of lockdown needed to stop the virus. Or you had to be a country with a superbly disciplined populace, such as Japan, Singapore or Korea. Luckily, that fear did not come true. Owing to the hopelessly federal structure of the United States, the lockdowns there were patchy at worst. But it still showed results.

We now have three big examples of places that were under siege from the virus, but managed to get out of trouble. China, the United States and Europe. There is hope for everyone.

India moved very early. One of the problems is the incubation period of the virus, which could be 14 days. That means, if you do a 21 day lockdown, you don’t even know until the 14th day whether it is working. We are finally about 10 days beyond the incubation period of the virus, counting since the day the lockdown began.

And luckily, the numbers definitely seem encouraging

Apr 1: 25.9%

Apr 2: 23.6%

Apr 3: 22%

Apr 4: 18.6%

Apr 5: 16.5%

Apr 6: 11.3%

Apr 7: 12%

Apr 8: 10.5%

Apr 9: 13.7%

Apr 10: 12.9%

Apr 11: 11.2%

Apr 12: 8.9%

Apr 13: 13.5%

Apr 14: 10%

Apr 15: 7.6%

Apr 16: 8.5%

YES! It’s working. The numbers jump up and down a little, but nobody can doubt that the overall trend is sharply downwards. We have gone from over 20% levels to under 10% levels.

The lockdown is working!

We have seen this in several countries by now. Once the curve begins to flatten, it really does go down. We are looking at over two weeks worth of data here.

Obviously, concerns remain. Mumbai has emerged as a hotspot. But you could take solace from the fact that Singapore has over 4000 cases of the virus, with 728 reported yesterday. Sure, maybe Mumbai’s number of 2000 is under reported. But by how much? What if the real number is 5 times that? Even such an outrageous assumption estimates the real number of cases in Mumbai at 10,000. Now bear in mind that Mumbai has four times the population of Singapore.

A month ago, the pandemic in India was still taking off. We were still talking in terms of around 100 cases per day. With the grim situation in Italy, we wondered how our health infrastructure would cope. We have problems, but we might be pulling off something exemplary here.

The fact that we are doing well shows in the desperation of our enemies. The other day, BBC sent a reporter to found one doctor in Mumbai to say that he might have come across 6 deaths that could have been due to Corona, but were not counted in the official toll. I should warn you … the so called doctor made his allegation anonymously. We have literally no reason to trust even a single word from the BBC. So for all you know, this so called doctor could be any random person located anywhere in the world.

But even then, think about BBC’s big expose on India’s so called underreporting…

6 cases?

That’s all?

Here’s the UK, meanwhile.

Untitled As many as 2000 old age homes in the UK are infected. We know just how lethal the virus is to old people. These hapless folks are now dying all over the place and the helpless third world country called the UK can’t even count them.

Even the official count in the UK has now touched 14,000 deaths. Explains why BBC could be resorting to desperate measures against India for the emotional security of the British public.

I bet Indian liberals promised their global elite friends that there would be thousands of dead bodies floating down the “Ganges.” But time is passing and the dead bodies aren’t showing up. For that matter, there is no river called Ganges either. If some liberal wants, they can leak to the global elite about Indians secretly referring to some “Ganga” in their own languages. Who knows, it might be a sinister plot. Who knows, the liberal that exposes this conspiracy might get a few pennies tossed their way from the XYZ Times.

The BBC is our enemy, but ordinary British people certainly are not. I suggest common Indians put out this message loudly on social media so that common folks in Britain can hear. My British friends, your elites are hiding from you the reality of the UK being a third world country. They don’t even want to count the thousands of people who are dying of Wuhan Coronavirus in your country right now. To distract you, they are giving you fanciful stories about people secretly dying horrible deaths in India. Sadly for you, the real third world slum like situation is in London, not Mumbai. Tell your elites to stop fooling you and stop poking around in India. Tell your elites to do something your country, instead of lying about ours.

9 thoughts on “What if India is beginning to flatten the curve?

  1. CW is in form like a Tendulkar in his prime. Yes, the BBC is desperate to show India in poor light when right under their nose in their own country thousands of people are dying and hospitals being overwhelmed with patients who they are unable to attend to. To go back in time a few weeks, Britain and its PM were talking of herd immunity and were not taking this pandemic seriously. Now Britain is facing its moment of truth because of its inaction. Their own PM was affected by the virus, many thousands infected and unable to access medical facilities, and the government belatedly scrambling to announce a lockdown. If BBC wants a story, they have plenty to report in UK and yet they want to report lies about India in their programmes.

    UK citizens should question the concocted lies that BBC is reporting on India and ask BBC why they are not covering about the dire situation in UK.

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  2. The CDC in the USA has taken a decision that if a person dies WITH the CVD, it will be counted as a CVD death, even if the person did not die OF CVD. The CDC reasoned that if the CVD inflamed comorbidities that led to death, then it is only fair to count it as a CVD death. It inflates the numbers. but it is a price that US planners are ready to pay. This is exactly the opposite of what the UK is doing, which is to ignore CVD deaths in old-folks homes etc.

    Even before CVD, it was painfully obvious to anyone who visited that the UK is pretty much a third-world country in many ways. This just brought it out into the open.

    I don’t agree with this however: “The BBC is our enemy, but ordinary British people certainly are not.” When India shipped paracetamol to the UK, this was reported in various UK newspapers. The comments in response to the stories were HORRIBLY racist, I am sorry to say. So we need not go out of our way to be sympathetic.

    And finally, yes, there is no river called “Ganges” and there never was. Even that racist story had a protagonist called “Gunga-din”, not “Ganges-Din”, right? 🙂

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    1. You are right about the US. I am told that in Atlanta GA, one Indian’s house caught fire. He inhaled a lot of fumes. He died of that inhalation, but he was tested positive for CVD and declared dead by CVD.

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  3. Look what buffoon UT has reduced Shiv Sena to, Bal Thackeray must be very unhappy looking down on what UT has morphed into and he is turning Shiv Sena into a party that professes ideals that are exact opposite of what Bal Thackeray had shaped it into:

    https://www.opindia.com/2020/04/shiv-sena-leader-twitter-users-tablighi-jamaat-uddhav-thackeray-bandra-gathering-coronavirus/

    If there is any doubt that SS under UT has morphed into a pucca Pseudo-Secular, Leftlib, commie, out fit the above removes it. Now SS is another dynastic opportunistic party who want to cling to power. Its not different from NCP and Congress.

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    1. UT always struck me as a total nincompoop, every bit as much as RaGa. It is the bad luck of the MH people that they are experiencing his misadministration at first hand.

      What do people think of Raj Thackeray? Knowing very little about MH politics, I have the impression that is he too is a chameleon like UT, but with more ability. Views?

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  4. The Indian and the world’s Liberals are hell-bent on showing India in poor light. Initially, they constantly harped on fact (which was the case for every country) that India is not testing enough that is why such a small number. When that reason fell apart, they declared it must be because of BCG injection. But the unbelievably low number for CVD and resulting deaths is bothering them to no end.

    When there is a worldwide problem, the performance of any country and its leader should be compared with other countries and their leaders’ performance. On that count, India and Mr. Modi come out on the top. A mere 0.3 percent problem may not even generate a headline on eighth page of a newspaper ordinarily. We may have road accident fatalities greater than CVD deaths. If we separate the CVD positives between those who do not want to be positive versus those who want to be (at least don’t mind) positive, we would have flattened the curve fifteen days ago.

    We may complain that the Modi government is too tolerant of Muzzy criminals including stone pelters. But what can you do? If you arrest them where would you put them? We don’t have even half the number of prisons compared with the thinly populated USA, not to mention the petty criminals are being let go from the jail for the fear of CVD infection.

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  5. The Leftists of the world expected a lot of dead bodies in India. But what China virus will do is to kill a lot of useless Leftist jobs around the world. Beginning with WHO and hopefully all the UN* (where * stands for ESCO and all other useless organizations).

    As the world economy shrinks, so will opportunities for the Leftists. Already many newspapers in India are being dealt the death blow by China virus. Hope this will extend to universities and other leftist dens which leach taxpayer money and bite the society that feeds them.

    Hope the virus kills Indian secularism too though this is a much stronger beast that has burrowed into the vitals of our society. But atleast it has forged a greater Hindu unity. While the Tablighi nonsense made the headlines, there have been stories on social media of generosity in the face of crisis as well as garlanding the heroes who fought for us.

    Indian society will be very different after China virus – Bharat may be the least affected and may gain the most.

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  6. A little off-topic but now many states in India are cooking their numbers, including MH, Delhi and probably RJ. Kerala did this earlier and WB never did report accurate numbers. MP totals are high because of community spread in Indore due to you know who. The rest of MP seems to be OK. But unlike the jokers in MH, the MP administration seems to be testing everyone and reporting the results.

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  7. Off topic but interesting thread

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