Why every Indian must know about Round 23 in Mustafabad seat in Delhi

Here is a question. If you stood at New Delhi Railway Station and spoke to 7000 randomly chosen people, how many BJP supporters would you meet? Going by the BJP’s 38.5% vote share in the just concluded election, a decent estimate would be around 2700 people. The real number, of course, could be a bit higher or a bit lower.

How much higher or lower could it get? Could it be that 6000 of them were BJP supporters? Could it be that just 1000 of them were BJP supporters? Both would be surprising.

How about this? What if there were just 5 BJP supporters among 7000 people you meet in Delhi. That sounds near impossible, right?

Well, it did happen. During the counting of votes on Tuesday.

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These are the party positions after 14 rounds of counting at Mustafabad seat in Delhi. You can see that BJP candidate and sitting MLA Jagdish Pradhan has raced to a near 30,000 vote lead over his AAP rival. In an Assembly election, a lead of 30,000 would be considered fairly decisive. It would seem that Mr. Pradhan was on his way to retaining his seat comfortably.

And then something incredible happens between Round 14 and Round 23. Here is Round 19 for instance.

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In this round, AAP’s Haji Yunus has received 7904 votes to just 36 for the BJP! WHAT? How?

This trend continues all the way between Round 14 and Round 23. Each time AAP’s Haji Yunus piles on thousands of votes, while BJP struggles to hit even triple digits.

By Round 23 it is all over.

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AAP  received 6878 votes in this round and the BJP just 5! AAP’s Haji Yunus has now taken a comfortable lead of around 20,000 votes over the BJP and he cruises to victory.

Is this a technical glitch? A fraud? Manipulation in counting of votes? Was the election stolen? If you showed this sudden and extreme change of fortunes to anyone, they would suggest rushing to the Election Commission to file a complaint.

But, of course, the BJP, which is the losing party here, did not complain. They weren’t even surprised. Surely that is because they understood the demographics of the area and expected nothing else.

After the BJP’s defeat yesterday, we have been exposed to endless gyaan about how AAP worked miracles in education and health. What was this 6878 to 5 result about? Can you say seriously that it was about education and health? Remember that the BJP candidate was leading by around 30,000 votes until Round 14. How much disparity in education and health could there possibly be within a single seat in Delhi that we get a North Korea style landslide of 6878 to 5 in favor of AAP candidate Haji Yunus?

Every Indian needs to know what happened in Round 23 in Mustafabad in Delhi. Because it tells us what really lurks under the surface of Indian secularism.

In principle, voting allows us to decide who governs us. But a closer look shows that the electoral process forces us to make all sorts of difficult choices. The most basic of these is there while we may care about many issues, we get just one vote. When you break it down by candidate and by issue, you realize that it’s a very complicated optimization problem. Also, there is the system. Do you vote for an MLA or a Chief Minister?

And then there are the unknowns. About a month after election results, people of Maharashtra found out that they had voted for a Congress government.

Similar problems would exist in every electoral system. More Americans voted for Hillary Clinton, but Donald Trump won anyway.

When you grapple with all these unknowns, you realize how fragile democracy actually is. And how easily it can be hijacked by single issue voters. Which is likely what happened in Mustafabad.

A group of dedicated people who care about one and only one issue can easily overwhelm the majority. AAP’s Haji Yunus probably has to do little on education and health and development. He knows his 6878 to 5 landslide victory has nothing to do with those issues. As long as he keeps his single issue voter happy, he is safe.

AAP’s Amanatullah Khan won from Okhla by a huge margin of 70,000 votes. Is Okhla the most prosperous part of Delhi, with the best schools and hospitals? Probably not.

This is not just a Delhi phenomenon. Hyderabad is one of India’s top metros. Since 1989, it has been under the control of the Owaisi family that runs MIM. How can a vibrant metropolis be under the thumb of a party like MIM? Anyone will tell you that it’s because MIM controls the “old city” of Hyderabad. The old city area does not lead in education and health: in fact it is the poorest part of the city. But that matters little, because the area is full of single issue voters. On a side note, when was the last time you heard a liberal complain about the polarization that allows MIM to keep Hyderabad?

Yes, the people of Delhi wanted AAP this time. Even if BJP had won Mustafabad, there was no stopping Kejriwal. But elections come and go. Single issue voters stay exactly where they are. The rest of the public goes through mood swings. Ultimately, the single issue voter, who never changes their preference, will prevail. The system is designed to reward such behavior.

Each time, the single issue voter tries to get a bit more space for their cause. Sometimes they may succeed in pushing ahead. Sometimes not. If their party doesn’t win this time, they wait at the same point for five years and try again. The takeaway is that they are never in retreat. Over time, they will prevail.

Think about Shaheen Bagh. The media has stopped covering them now. By all accounts, the supply of Biryani, whether ‘kudrati’ or otherwise, seems to have run out. But remember that this crowd watched and cheered as a mother slowly dragged the life out of her 4 month old baby. Day by day, bit by bit, slowly and painfully. The cheering crowd has no regrets. The mother has no regrets. In fact, she has become a hero. Absolutely chilling crime against humanity committed in cold blood. This is the level of commitment that the single issue voter brings to the table.

Perhaps you are not among the single issue voters. You may have different priorities. You might be willing to strike a compromise with the single issue voter for the time being. Fine, but remember that the compromise will always come from your end. Expect no compromise from the other side. If a mother is willing to part with the life of her baby for the sake of her cause, what could possibly make her change her mind? She has already beaten the strongest instinct in all of nature, drilled in by millions of years of evolution. You stand no chance of convincing her. The single issue voter will not move back one inch and will not stop until they win 100%. It may take five years or hundred years, but the single issue voter will prevail.

32 thoughts on “Why every Indian must know about Round 23 in Mustafabad seat in Delhi

  1. For many, this single issue is defined as “Anybody but BJP”. No gas connection, no electricity connection or new toilets will change their minds. This is not just Muzzies’ problem, our BC/OBC people also fall in the same category. Congress party knew this a long time ago. Out of forty Crores of BC/OBC hardly two to three percent of them would qualify to take advantage of the reservation. But if you try to remove or modify this arrangement, the whole BC/OBC community will vote against you. This is what Congress has done. Offer reservation to two percent of the BC/OBC group and ignore the other 98 percent completely and that would be OK. So Modi’s Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikas does not work either with the Muzzies or with BC/OBC if the reservation is touched.

    In the Delhi election, I don’t understand why nobody even brought up the word “Anti-incumbency”? For the first three years, Kejriwal did not do any work and constantly complained that Modi does not let him work. And during the last year just because he did not call Narendra Modi a Psychopath and he became a matured politician and a “Stateman”?

    Liked by 3 people

    1. One of the main reasons of defeat of BJP and Congress in Delhi is that most of their leaders were busy in abusing others. Some were shouting goli maro…. ko.

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  2. Reiterating my comment in the earlier blog –

    Just being my pessimistic self, I guess. But I am deeply distressed and worried that the victory of AAP in Delhi, despite having betrayed every single cause they stood for, primarily anti-corruption, despite having spent crores on empty advertisement without delivering on their promises, despite having done nothing but dharnas and running off to greener pastures in Bangalore, the Hindu majority CHOSE to be fooled or satisfied with freebies while turning a blind eye to radical Muslim polarisation. I had been watching Sudhir Chowdhury’s analysis where he pointed to the ever growing freebie culture that appeals to voters- starting out with TN’s free sarees, dhotis, TV to free laptops to farmer loan waivers to free electricity and water, the country be damned. Remember that MP and Rajasthan were won on the promise of farmer loan waivers and monthly doles to unemployed. Remember that we were all nervous of the 72K NYAY scheme of Rahul Gandhi for LS elections.

    That fear has been revived now. I have been thinking, like Delhi, BJP could lose bengal also if Mamata announces freebies. The ordinary citizens will forget years of misrule and Muslim appeasement. BJP has no credible CM face in Bengal either. Hindus of Bengal are anyway deracinated “Bhadralok” happy with daily Maachher Jhol and Bhaath.

    Plus, whichever party that Prashant Kishor consults adopts a strategy of temple hopping and soft Hindutva just before elections and is actually able to fool the dhimmified “secular” Hindus.

    There are other reasons too – BJP MPs and MLAs only want to ride on the coat-tails of Modi-Shah without doing anything to connect with voters. Heck, we have all felt so cheated that when BJP comes to power, it announces “Sabka Vishwas” minority appeasement schemes, loots temples, ignores conversion mafia, looks the other way with respect to RTE.

    Like Prof Vidyasagar once said, no further Hindus are going to awaken to their roots or shun dhimmitude. I have already written my experience with stubborn secular hindus in a post prior to this, and I have given up trying because they refuse to be convinced, run away from discussions saying they have to go for meetings or look after their children and refuse take me seriously thinking that I am a mental disorder patient and have no job or responsibilities to understand their daily struggles.

    “Desh Ke Gaddaron ko goli maaro s**** ko” slogans loses more votes than winning them – because people react saying – “who did you call Gaddaar? How dare you decide who is a Gaddaar? Anybody anti-BJP is a Gaddaar? Shame on you!”.
    Nobody wants to even realise about the perils of islamic or Christian majority. The exodus that happened in Kashmir, Kairana, Malda, the genocides that happened on Direct Action Day, Marichjhapi, Nellore, the partition horrors are things that happened to “other people” just as people in their heart of hearts think that death, accidents, sickness, rape happen to “other people” and would never happen to “us”.

    And all this while, BJP continues to sleep – no improvements in education to connect Indians to their roots, no release of temples, no steps to stop conversion, arrogant MPs and MLAs….

    Liked by 7 people

    1. Rightly Said… we have to come together as Hindus and not brahmins, kshatriyas, kayasthas, marathas, dalits. Unlike other religions who come together as a religion and not castes and sub castes..

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Very rightly analysed. BJP cadre…. MPs MLAs and local MCs are just enjoying and situation in thier constituencies is worst. These people are just nullifying decisions, effects of Central govt. Why BJP didnot go out and explained CAA NPR….. Were their cadre caught sleeping??? If we normal people can understand…. Why Shah Modi are not taking appropriate steps???? Is this strategy adopted by opposition to kick out BJP from all states…. So they have no majority in RS….. So no bill will be passed…… So with what work they will go to 2024????Mandir,370,and CAA will not get Hindus votes to get to power. Hindus are selfish, coward and are not united. Hindus have not learned from History.

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    2. Demolish democracy…declare india a hindu rastra .There are so many Christian and islamic nations .Can’t we have one hindu nation in the world.A hindu rastra where only hindu can vote and decide who can rule. If hiduism is to service we have to think of ourself first.vasudhae kutumb. No longer apply or we ourself would be destroyed

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Great going blunderbusses… The same single issue Voters problem applies most to you all. “Muslimphobia” is the only issue you all vote for. Freebies!? Tell me if you’re still not using free Jio sim and have used free internet for one year. You have great contribution in destroying the other telecom companies. Single issue voters come in large from Hindutva mindset community. Your single issue is “destruction of Muslims”. So its natural for Muslims to have a single issue of “Safety from Destruction”. Otherwise there was no chance that a government who persecuted its citizens on a regular basis, returned to power of worse rule ever in a country. I’m clear none of you will accept it and howsoever concretely your Hippocratic nature is proved but as a matter of fact, truth must be told in the face of a liar.

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    3. You just have to scroll down below to a couple of comments that reveal the utter self-delusion that some among the majority live in. When the dictatorship of the communist kind or the Saudi kind arrive in this country they may – may – realise what they lost. But by then it would be too late…

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    4. If BJP does speak anything Hindu BJP is branded communal. Appeasing Muslims by Congress, TMC and other Opposition is secular. Media and political analysts have forgotten Shaheen Bagh. Freebies must be banned by SC and EC to woo voters!

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    5. I completely agree.

      Same experience here.

      Unless BJP becomes truly a Hindu Nationalist party it’s days are numbered to be in power. It is matter of time.

      And if we Hindus don’t awaken to the reality & ultimate inevitability now who knows what will be state of affairs in just 2 to 3 generations. See what’s happening in UK & many other counties especially European countries .

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  3. Kejriwal has pulled a fast one on Delhi voters. He takes their taxes, routes large amounts to this cronies in media as advertisements and distributes some money for votes.

    Voters see the money they get but dont see what they miss. They miss infrastructure, good education, healthcare etc. And worse, Kejriwal insists on giving freebies even to those who dont need it. Sure way of bankrupting Delhi. After bankruptcy, he will blame Modi for not giving him money for freebies

    In short Kejriwal will convert Delhi to Venezuela, the commie paradise where there is no bread on the shelves.

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    1. Do you have any concrete data to back your claims?
      As per CAG report, Delhi government is running in profit- What the government does with the taxes should not be your concern dear Kannan, it’s their way of clean governance that has enabled them to give those freebies. And please don’t start with media, the whole world knows how BJP has tried to suppress the media in India.

      Everyone admires European countries and wants to travel there or settle there, but nobody cares to bother what benefits the citizens get there- Please google the concept of a Welfare State. Healthcare, Education costs are borne by the government for every citizen.

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  4. Vow, looks like Modi is shifting into higher gear now

    It is easy to forget all the things that have happened, good to hear it from the man himself

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    1. From horse’s mouth indeed. I was thinking after this accumulated anger that came out after the CAA passage would be last for a long time as many other political parties that supported the last few measures in Rajya Sabha may get cold feet.

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  5. This single issue thing will prevail, if the majority allows, even if there is no democracy or voting process. There is a well-documented treatise by a renowned professor about how Egypt, which was a Christian majority at one time, gradually became Muslim. He used the word “outstubborned,” meaning that Muslims outstubborned the Christians over a period of centuries to become the overwhelming majority, through conversions, marriages, violence and population explosion. Ironically, the same process of outstubbornng your opponent was adopted earlier by Christians to reduce the pagans to a minority in the same Egypt. In a way, democracy is a blessing in disguise because you get to know what is happening and have a chance to undertake course corrections. The strongest of dictatorships and monarchies have no such alternatives, as the ruler is surrounded by sycophants who give him only the good news. The most powerful Roman empire became the Holy Roman empire precisely through the same means that the Islamists are adopting now. I am not a pessimist, though. India is rising and we will meet the challenge, come what may.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. The way to fight the “single issue” is to break the infrastructure that enables them to choose the issue and party unanimously; and that infrastructure is masjids/mullahs and madrassas. In India, BJP seems to be the only one (Sena is no more Shiv’s, it’s Sonia’s) that looks at H interests, whereas everyone else courts Ms. So, you would expect Ms to get divided, but they don’t because the decision is made by the leadership and instructions are passed on and executed accurately. The execution accuracy is so high because of the mullahs that know how to keep their flock brainwashed with little regard for independent thinking, education, or for that matter, any other human development indices. So we have to fight with this infrastructure, cut down funding, and put a price on letting that communication happen.

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  7. Do any of you look at the pattern in Delhi elections? In 2013 elections AAP led by Kejrival became the 2nd largest party with 28 seats. He formed the government with Congress support. Remained the CM for 4 months and vacated to fight against Mr. Modi in Varanasi. He lost to Modiji by 3,70,000 votes. BJP had won all 7 seats from Delhi. Suddenly he attacked BJP and the EC saying the EVMs were tampered. Kejriwal even claimed that he could prove that the EVMs could be hacked. But, just evaded EC’s challenge to prove his claim, but he refused to take EC’s challenge. In 2015 Delhi assembly his party won 67 out of 70 seats. So, did he hack the EVM’s to turn BJP’s clean sweep in the parliament election to score such a massive win in Assembly elections? He may have left the EVMs un-hacked in 2019 parliament elections since he had realised that winning Delhi’s 7 parliament seats are not useful to him. But, if he let BJP have those seats, he perhaps hacked the EVMs to score a second massive victory in this year’s Delhi Assembly elections.

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  8. What a one sided & totaly biased interpretation. The dynasty crook is silent about Jay Shah? when the incompetent dynast is given a prominent position or when the son of HP CM is given a ticket and randomly bark. What every Indian knows is that it’s people like you who have a myopic lense, 108 inch stupid, brainless mouth that would hold India back in the 21st century by spreading divisive political agenda.

    And by the way if yoy just look at the voting pattern, BJP candidate got 42% votes in total, consistent with the BJP vote percentage overall Stop creating nonsense and illogical rumour. You are nothing but an incompetent hole in the back whose sole agenda is to spread hatred and divisiveness. It’s because of idiots such as you that India is still caught and would never reach its potential. Jerk and anpad gawaar.

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    1. Does Jay shah being a dynastycrook washes other part’y dystansts sins and the hp ex cm’s son had a 20 year long political career before becoming a junior minister at centre not directly parachuted to cm’s or PM’s candidature and giving tickets to rioters like amantullah Khan doesn’t signifies any secularism on aap part muslims voting en mass on basis of their religion after being fooled by opposition regarding CAA when in fact it has nothing to do with them is no secularism either

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  9. This is the most idiotic piece I read in long time….The author is clearly biased….It was BJP which ran a polarizing campaign during Delhi not AAP….

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    1. Tickets given to rioters like amantullah khan by aap does this signify secularism the misguided muslims voted enmass on basis of religion this is polarization

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  10. “She has already beaten the strongest instinct in all of nature, drilled in by millions of years of evolution. You stand no chance of convincing her.”… Those golden words

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  11. Wonderful analysis. Those who are saying it is biased BJP person. I may agree with him but I would really like to have such analysis on every seat so that it is known that is there a diversity in single issue voters also in general elections as well as in state elections. It it prevails, then it is not a biased analysis, rather a fair analysis.

    Like

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