If you believe Google trends, this election is a runaway win for Modi

Let me show you a picture:

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The blue regions of the country show more interest in BJP, whereas the red regions show an interest in Congress.

If you could ever capture the big Congress revival in one single image, this would be it.

So, how does this image tie up with the headline of this post. That’s because this is a snapshot of Google trends from Sept 1, 2018 to Dec 1, 2018: the three months that led up to the big Assembly polls in Hindi heartland states. Observe how all three states : Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are visibly lighted up in red splashed across the face of India. Here is the rest of that screenshot:

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Yes, all this while people were calculating and guessing about results of Hindi heartland states, Google knew. In its infinite wisdom, Google knew what was going to happen. The writing was on the wall.

As with the rest of the world, India is slowly waking up to the power of big data. Think about it. If you knew what every person in the country was thinking, you would know who is winning the election. And today that “every” person has a smartphone and access to the internet, Google knows what people are interested in.

Now let us see what Google trends says about the last 3 months (BJP vs Congress)

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What a change! From big splashes of red to a uniform ocean of blue (Fun question : Can you name the tiny northeastern state in the corner which appears to be the only state in red?)

Google’s wisdom is clear. BJP is winning.

Okay, just to make sure we are not picking up aberrations : we all know BJP got a spike in popularity after air strikes in Balakot. Is this lead still there?

So here is the data for last 1 month.

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And for the last 7 days:

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Hardly any change, with exception of (undivided) Andhra Pradesh where BJP has hardly any stakes. Interestingly, notice how the graphic also shows that the BJP’s advantage is highest in West Bengal and Odisha. The two “greenfield” states that BJP is hoping to capture.

A few days back, I said that the best barometer for how BJP perceives Bengal will be visible in the PM’s campaign. If he goes to smaller places to do rallies, it means he senses a high return from Bengal. You can see PM Modi spending time in Buniadpur in West Bengal for a massive rally 3 days ago. I swear I had never heard of this place before in my life. Apparently, it’s somewhere in North Bengal. Modi going to these “unknown” places means he senses victory.

You know what ‘liberals’ are going to say at this point. That BJP voters are “urban upper caste rich, blah blah blah…” and hence BJP would get over-represented on the internet. They do not even know how outdated such thinking is.

The internet revolution has been around a long time. Which means that BJP lost its “first mover advantage” a very long time ago on the internet. This is not 2014. Anybody who is on social media and does not have their eyes closed will say that the Congress online propaganda machine is formidable… and in many ways more nimble footed than that of BJP.

In fact, this is one of the reasons I put up the Google trends data from Sept – Dec, 2018 at the top of my post. It acts as a “control” for us to check the effectiveness of Google Trends as a barometer. We now know that except for Chhattisgarh, there was no wave at all for Congress in the Hindi heartland. The Congress barely scraped through in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. And yet, Google Trends data managed to pick up this tiny excess of Congress over BJP.

Shows you how sensitive Trends data is in picking up even a slight pro-Congress mood. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress didn’t even get more votes than BJP. But Google Trends was still able to pick up the fact that Congress voters were perhaps a wee bit more enthusiastic than BJP.

So the fact that BJP uniformly leads over the Congress right now according to Google Trends tells you who is winning.

Let’s take a moment to look at the personalities. What about Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi? The numbers are so bad for Rahul Gandhi, this is almost embarrassing for him.

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Whoa! Don’t just look at Modi’s lead. Look at the scale of it.

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In the most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, Modi leads 92% to 8%!  According to Google, the interest in Modi is 12 times as much as the interest in Rahul!

In fact, other than TN or Kerala or Nagaland, there isn’t a single state where Modi’s number is below 80%. In Maharashtra, it is 83%. It is 91% in Bihar, 88% in Bengal and 86% in Odisha! Rajasthan is at 88% and Madhya Pradesh at 85%.  Those are huge numbers!

How will a party get votes if people do not have the slightest interest in what their leader has to say?

It seems that despite all the big image makeovers and non stop praise from Lutyens, the common person in the country simply isn’t interested in what Rahul Gandhi has to say.

It’s fairly clear : Congress hasn’t managed to get its message out.  If you ask Google Trends, this election is over. The writing is on the wall.

 

47 thoughts on “If you believe Google trends, this election is a runaway win for Modi

  1. Why go so much technical? Just look at the complaints against EVMs. The Google trend shows so much difference after Balikote. As the Balikote feelings were fading, the voters got a timely reminder about the terrorist attacks under UPA government and lack of such attacks under Modi government.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. The post is definitely a piece of nice analysis However I also presume that the wave may not be permanent We have completed half the portion of parliament election It will be better if Google arrange to publish the results of these seats to tally the present analysis
      Now the main reason I believe that the wave may not be permanent is the nature of Congress party This party could not accustomed to fact that they are in opposition and stalled the parliament functions likewise now during election campaign they are shouting”Choukidar chor hai” constantly irrespective of court judgement which definately going to have impacts on the certain groups like JNU AMU and other psuedo secular Also entry of Priyanka bears some impact However I also believe that आयेगा तो मोदी

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Brilliant analysis and most Indians will agree with it. I won’t be surprised a wee bit on May 23 even if BJP/NDA get past the magical mark of 400. Modi Govt.’s next term will make India a $5Trillion economy and will provide homes to the country’s homeless besides ringing in development on all economic and social fronts. All this because of one man, Shri Narendra Modi.

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      1. S ITS TRUE BECAUSE OF ONLY ONE SINGLE PERSAN NAMO PM OF IND MODIJI !
        My Predict is BJP 285 & NDA 75 = 360 this vill b magical figure of NDA it’s my words to U !!!

        Jab ki I am Congress man & I am working on post of prune city Congress

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      2. Housing for all by 2022 but no housing for homebuyers who have invested their life savings for the past over 10 years and crooked builders have stopped all work, siphoned off all money and BJP led government haven’t done anything for the last 5 years to bring defaulting builders to book. Harassed Homebuyers are suffocating and suffering and continue to pay EMIs. What slogan of housing are we talking about….what a shame and I am convinced that we mango people are living in a banana republic

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      3. Revered voter Ravi Rajan Sir , i standby ur predictions * You said it *.I say 413 +/-
        God save your India_my India_Our India…under आयेगा तो नमो..जी.India needs courageous Leader who thinks of common man of RK LAXMAN ji first .
        Major Ravi Joshi in Mumbai_ aftr exercising my voting right just now_for our नमो.ओम् ( No one )*नमो शिवाय्.

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    1. 5Forty3 Data Labs Private Limited, which was set up by Praveen Patil with Mr. Sampath Iyengar and me as Advisers, has been defunct for more than a year now. Patil still seems to retain his Twitter handle and the 5forty3 web site.

      I do not know on what basis Patil is generating his reports, because much of the original staff has been laid off. In your place I would certainly not waste Rs. 999 to subscribe to his “analysis,” though of course the final choice is yours.

      Hope this helps.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Thanks a bunch prof. Precisely the readon I asked coz I saw many RW accounts talk abt his fraud, and I remembered an old comment wherein you had mentioned him. Thanks a million 999 will goto reclaimtemples or vaidika bharata then 🙏

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      2. After some thought I decided to elaborate on the above comment. I am one of the investors in 5Forty3 Data Labs Private Limited when it was formed in April of 2017. Since that time the company has not been in contact with me for the purposes of conducting an Annual General Meeting (AGM) nor any other matter related to corporate governance, as required by law.

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        1. Pretty depressing to learn about this aspect of Praveen Patil ! Lately his tweets after every phase of election have been overwhelmingly positive … and frankly were a constant ‘feel-good’ factor !

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  2. Dear Abhishek,

    Unfortunately, as news reports have shown repeatedly, the TMC is in the process of stealing all the Lok Sabha seats in “Waste” Bengal. So that is a loss of about 20 seats that I was hoping would go into the BJP kitty. The Election Commission had assigned central forces to just 40% of the booths in Phases 1 and 2, with the result that there was rampant intimidation and impersonation. Still, the BJP might scrape through, thanks to the rest of the country.

    BTW the interview with Rajesh Jain that Coupta has been tom-tomming is from December, i.e., around the time of the Assembly elections. At that time, it DID look difficult for the BJP to repeat its 2014 tally. But now, after the Balakot strike, I believe that is history. This is why Harold Wilson famously said that a week is a long time in politics. While the terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka are highly unfortunate, they do serve to remind us Indians about the contrast between “Maun”-Mohan Singh and Modi.

    As for Raul, with today’s Supreme Court notice for criminal contempt of court, I believe things are only going to get hotter for him. It couldn’t happen to a more deserving person!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The stupid guy said he blamed the Court in the heat of the campaign, but his belief that the Chowkidar Is A Chor stays. Now, why did he think the BJP leader Ms Sitharaman who filed the complaint would let him go?

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  3. Nice analysis CW, analytics will play a big role in future elections. The other interesting thing in the Google trends is that some of the top queries are in Hindi.

    Just for fun, I plotted the comparison between BJP and All India Trinamool Congress (wonder how many local parties call themselves All India, AIADMK is ofcourse the other one we know). The Trinamool line is flat and zero, almost like the ECG of a dead person.

    The other indicator is Whatsapp and Social media. Maybe Whatsapp will have an even better pulse on the ground by analyzing the messages. When you dont see a single good message about the opposition parties (apart from the usual Lutyens suspects) for five years, it is a bad sign for the opposition.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. FYI, I am repeating my post in the previous blog as it is very much material to perceptions and voting patterns.

    ISIS has confirmed that it was responsible for the serial bomb blasts in Sri Lanka yesterday (see link from Swarajya at the end of this post). That means these butchers are now at India’s doors. More reason to expect people to place their belief in the current government than the previous Congress loot 24×7 government.

    Well, on to my previous post. Would be great to hear what others have to say.

    It has always puzzled me – and continues to – why the world is full of apologists for the peaceful people. Though the evidence continues to pile up on their terrorist tendencies. The count is rising month after month, year after year.

    From 9/11 to this day, the world has been witness to terrorist destruction in NYC, Washington DC, Boston, Philadelphia, Brussels, Paris, London, Stockholm, Israel, Middle East, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand…

    And, yet, apologists in the West, in India, and just about everywhere propound vague theories and, in India, that we have to take into account “Hindu terror”. What Hindu terror? Always, always, always, the “other side” is at fault. Not just in India, this is the received wisdom across the West as well.

    More and more people, many of them young, trot out excuses about historical injustices. Why are mosques always constructed cheek-by-jowl with temples? Well, Hindus did something previously. Why is political Islam on such a rabid tear around the world? Well, the world did grave mistakes in the past. Why are we not talking Godhra? No, let’s talk riots first. Why special privileges to minority educational institutions that are not given to majority institutions? Well, they deserve first right to all resources. Why can the secular and minority political parties always talk minorityism and appeasement but not nationalist parties? Well, this is a secular country. Why can the peaceful people (and “secular” parties, activists, NGOs, so-called “intellectuals” and media) talk peaceful people rights and be overtly anti-Indian but nationalist parties not allowed similar free rein with their philosophy? Well, nationalism is terrible but secular is good.

    Don’t you think the world has had enough?

    ISIS claims responsibility:

    https://swarajyamag.com/insta/isis-claims-responsibility-for-terror-attacks-in-sri-lanka-calls-the-blasts-work-of-fighters-of-the-islamic-state

    Like

    1. We should all chip in and buy a bouquet for this lady Renee Lynn. May her tribe flourish!

      Liked by 2 people

  5. Elsewhere on social media:

    HOW TO HANDLE TERRORISTS, SRI LANKAN STYLE

    1. Within hours, around 25 people arrested.
    2. Religion of arrested persons announced; let there be no doubt who these murderers are.
    3. Names of arrested persons not announced. “We don’t want them to become martyrs,” says police chief. That means they are certain to be executed.
    4. Island-wide dusk to dawn curfew to prevent escape.
    5. Emergency declared. This means the terrorists will be tried by military court and will face the firing squad. That is if they are not first shot on sight.
    6. India’s cooperation obtained. Indian Coast Guard will shoot out of the water anyone trying to escape to Tamil Nadu.

    NOTE: Sri Lanka does not have to worry about liberal TV anchors and terrorist sympathizers condemning the government. No politicians to visit the relatives of the terrorists. No crocodiles to shed tears. No liberal lawyers waking up the courts at midnight.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. Here is an interesting take by Voice of Assam:

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  7. Due to Modi government and BJP believe in united India,non current India,and they got all educated minister even good worker that’s what they are winning,and we people need such type of team for

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  8. Dear CW,

    Google Trends is indeed really a good place to look into for some insights and glad you covered it all.

    Just a thought on why Andhra Pradesh (Undivided) looks otherwise in past 7 days is not because suddenly there is interest among people on Rahul’s leadership but I think it is because the very likeliness that YSR “Congress” Party is going to come to power. Google trends might have missed the difference between Indian National Congress and YSR Congress parties.

    On the Srilanka, this current situation has multiple shades to it. We have to, as a nation, be thankful to Modi’s leadership and his team for not allowing any terror strike on civilians in last 5 years. Though terror outfits were successful in attacking security forces, even this is getting costlier by every attack and after Balakot the cost of terrorist attack has been raised exponentially. Now, this has put the terror outfits in a pressure situation. They had to prove their existence but with Modi’s government suddenly their booming terror industry in India has gone bankrupt. So they chose a country which still comes within the Indian security sphere of influence and Srilanka had some additional aspects for this selection, China being one. Srilankan government’s public declaration of regret over not acting enough on India’s leads shows how good Indian intelligence apparatus is. I am not qualified enough to speculate this but I believe these attacks in South Asian region will only increase in coming years unless we have Modi back. Modi as PM is not just good of India but also the whole region. We are net provider of intelligence and security for this region.

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  9. I’d really be overwhelmingly glad if Modi sarkar comes back with such a resounding victory. But I have a sincere question though.
    How reliable are these Google trends?
    Can you or did you make a comparative study of these with the ones for the assembly elections which the BJP lost in MP, RAJ and CG before posting these results?
    Seriously asking this because I still remember your analysis then. I dont want myself and a vast majority of other chaukidars to be lulled into that feel good trap again.
    Regards

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  10. Very interesting analysis.Congress has only itself to blame for losing this.They carried out a highly negative campaign of fear and pessimism. The voter of today wants to see concrete solutions and ideas for the problems facing the country not what the existing government failed to do.The entire campaign was either fear mongering that minorities will be decimated or on Rafale.The first may win votes from minorities and the second makes no sense coming from a party which is proven more corrupt.

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  11. What is the dependability of Google trends and whether you have compared the same for all assembly elections which BJP lost ?
    How can your analysis be complete without this?

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  12. 2029 तक मोदी ही रहेंगे भारत के प्रधानमंत्री,
    2029 में मोदी स्वयं ही सार्वजनिक जीवन से अवकाश ले लेंगे।।
    फ़कीर

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  13. The comparision is very interesting and insightful. What would be the picture if we compare Modi with other regional leaders say Mamata in bengal Or stalin in TN. Frankly the fight is not with Congress in most States.

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  14. Very systematic and logical analysis of political scene in India by Google. Now that 5 phases of the election are over and considering another self goal scored congress yesterday , the last two phases are bound to effect it adversely.
    My estimate is:
    BJP: 325
    Supporting
    Parties in NDA 75

    Congress 40
    SP/BSP. 15
    TMC. 12
    Gathbanbhan
    Assortment. 76

    Like

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