Why the Congress is finished in Karnataka

Congress has made a huge mistake. They are going to pay dearly for this. They might actually never recover from this.

The scenario is very simple to understand. Nobody seriously believes that Congress (78 seats) is going to support JDS (37 seats) for a full five year term. At some point or the other, the Congress’ greed will get the better of its judgement and it will pull down the government.

Guess what happens then? The Congress will face a backlash from the Vokkaligas for pulling down Kumaraswamy’s government. The Lingayats are already furious with the Congress. Between the Lingayat belt in the north of Karnataka and the Vokkaliga belt in the south, the Congress will be crushed.

In effect, Congress is riding a tiger that it cannot get off. But it will have to jump at some point and then the  tiger is going to eat them.

The Congress actually started the Karnataka election well, with a decent plan of action. The JDS had been out of power for 10 years and being a small regional party with very limited resources, it seemed like their days were numbered. The Congress plan was to destroy the JDS completely in its home base and take control of the Old Mysore region. An expeditionary measure was also undertaken in Northern Karnataka to try and divide the Lingayat vote.

Both plans flopped and miserably so.  The Lingayats polarized against the attempt to divide Hindus. And in the Old Mysore region, the Congress has now revived the JDS. The image of Kumaraswamy has now been bolstered to become the face of the state. The Congress is divided between Siddaramaiah, Parameswara and Kharge. Even if they wanted to project a Congress face to keep Kumaraswamy from monopolozing the stage, they wont be able to agree on one.

Here is a basic rule of politics. Never give up your pole position. You may never get it back.

Long years ago, the BJP made this mistake in Uttar Pradesh, after the elections of 2002. That year, the Samajwadis emerged as the largest party, winning 143 seats. The BSP won 98 seats and the BJP 88 seats.

Desperate to hold on to (the appearance of) power in Uttar Pradesh at any cost, the BJP offered the CM post to Mayawati.

By the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had melted down in Uttar Pradesh. By 2007 Assembly elections, the BJP had practically ceased to matter in Uttar Pradesh elections, which became a BSP vs SP affair. First Mayawati won a majority in 2007 and then Mulayam won a majority in 2012. The BJP was reduced to a mere onlooker.

Today the BJP is back in Uttar Pradesh, thanks to the turnaround scripted by Modi-Shah. But for 12 years, the BJP was nowhere in the state. The pole position that it surrendered in 2002 would never have come back, except for Modi-Shah.

Does the Congress dynasty really have it in its genes to perform that kind of an electoral miracle in Karnataka?

In another large southern state, the Congress has now agreed to play second fiddle to a regional party. It is only a matter of time before the Congress becomes a small supporting party in Karnataka to Kumaraswamy’s JDS. The Congress has been down this path before, becoming a support party for Samajwadis in Uttar Pradesh, Lalu Yadav in Bihar and Hemant Soren in Jharkhand.

I would call on BJP supporters to understand the real meaning of “Congress Mukt Bharat.” There is a difference between defeating the Congress in a state and making a state “Congress mukt.”

“Congress mukt” does not mean Congress living on as the main opposition. For instance, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh have seen the Congress lose repeatedly to the  BJP. But these states can hardly be considered “Congress mukt.”

Indeed, “Congress mukt” means that the Congress is neither in a position to form the government nor become the opposition. And from this point of view, what happened yesterday is actually a step forward towards Congress mukt Bharat. A JDS government with BJP as the main opposition is more “Congress mukt” than a BJP government with Congress as main opposition.

And Mamata Banerjee was the first to recognize this reality. Her tweet on this has been absolutely vicious:

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Congress was third in line (technically even 4th) to be congratulated. She made it a point not to mention Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy by name AND not to mention Rahul by name. And just in case somebody still didn’t catch the drift, she spelled out that it’s a victory for the “regional front.”

In the days to come, such humiliation for the Congress will mount. The Congress for its part seems to be willing to swallow it. And when somebody is willing to offer concessions, in the relentlessly competitive sphere of Indian politics, they can expect to be taken to the cleaners.

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33 thoughts on “Why the Congress is finished in Karnataka

  1. Ok. We are moving towards ‘Congress Mukt’. But CW, I want to remind you that your blog is ‘Dynasty Crooks’. So I expect you to attack ALL DYNASTIES. With the Congress diminishing, the banner above can start including Yadavs, Gowdas, Pawars, Thakres, DMK, Patnaiks, et al from opposition and also from BJP if they spring up. The bane of dynastic entitlement must be attacked relentlessly.

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    1. What I can clarify is that “Dynasty” referred to in the title of my blog is only the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. I always refer to them as THE Dynasty, with a capital D.

      But you have made a good point. You have really made me think. Perhaps it is my own hypocrisy and/or obsession with the Nehru-Gandhi clan.

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  2. It all depends what you define victory as. For the moment, Congress is defining victory as not allowing BJP to come to power and they have been successful. JD(S) might badly dent the image of the Congress but that is a risk Congress is prepared to take.

    Unfortunately, BJP is not learning the right lessons from their reversals. They could have easily won Karnataka by repealing RTE and freeing up temples in say Maharashtra. This would have given their Karnataka promise of freeing temples more credibility. Hope they realize atleast now that Vikas is a weak weapon against what the opposition is doing to them and it wont carry them past the finishing line in 2019.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Dear Mr. Kannan, Mr. Raj,

      On the contrary, the BJP government of neighbouring Maharashtra led by David Fernandes has been very busy shutting down Hindu-run schools under the RTE, and looting the famed Siddhi Vinayaka temple. Fernandes has already issued an order saying that no photos of idols can be displayed in government offices — an order that affects ONLY Hindus.

      So perhaps the Hindus of Karnataka have drawn the correct inference, namely that the BJP is not at all serious about “Hindu-related” issues, and have voted accordingly. The fact that BJP lost 10 seats by fewer than 3,000 votes each highlights the voter disenchantment with the BJP. As I have said earlier, the Lok Sabha elections will be held under similar weather conditions, and unless the BJP can energise its voters, they won’t go out and vote. Praveen Patil pointed out in his blog that on voting day, Christians and Muslims turned in excess of 80%, while Hindus didn’t. So the “record voter turnout” is misleading, in that HINDUS did not vote in record numbers —
      only others did. Therefore one can safely assume that the results in the Lok Sabha elections nationwide would witness a downturn of about 50 to 60 seats for the BJP if things continue as at present.

      I would like to highlight a thread I read on twitter, from a bunch of people that I had not heard of previously. I would urge everyone who still thinks that Modi has any intentions of doing something for Hindus to read it in its entirety. In particular, please see the comment by Vinod Bhanot, who asks: If the Modi sarkar can pass the Triple talaq bill in the Lok Sabha, knowing fully well that it won’t pass in the Rajya Sabha, just to signal its “intent,” what prevents them from passing “pro-Hindu” bills in the Lok Sabha to signal their intent? He leaves the obvious answer unsaid, namely: MODI HAS NO INTENT TO HELP HINDUS.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I don’t know where the numbers in this tweet come from, as no source is given, but it is food for thought.

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  3. When the divisive agenda is followed by the Congress and other opposition there should be a unifying message that is emotive and credible needs to be presented by the BJP. Unifying emotive issues like repeal of RTE, removing distinction between minority and majority institutions for running educational and charitable organisations, freeing temples from government control, … But to sound credible it has be implemented in at least one state where the BJP as a majority on its own. Vikas alone is not an anti-dote to the divisive agenda of the opposition especially the congress.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. As they say in a democracy people get the government they deserve. Perhaps, we Hindus deserve UPA type government because the pro-Hindu government did not satisfy us Hindus on some issues. We just don’t mind terrorist attacks on our major cities we DESERVED during the UPA government. So we are yearning for the government other than BJP government.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Dear Joshi-ji,

      How exactly is the Modi government “pro-Hindu”? I grant that tt is not actively anti-Hindu like the UPA I & II, but that does not make it pro-Hindu. Leave aside the commendable reduction (even elimination) of high-level corruption achieved by Modi, and please tell me what actions Modi has taken that benefit Hindus. I have an open mind and would really like to know your thoughts on thi.

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      1. Demonetization broken the back of fake currency and terrorists,
        NGO fund freeze has reduced conversions,
        Surgical strikes pushed Pakistan back,
        Action against naxals has reduced their footprint significantly.
        These have helped in reducing adverse effect of anti India and anti hindu agencies.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. SK, I agree with all of these claims, and there is no doubt that Modi is providing good governance. My question to Joshiji was how Modi is “pro-Hindu.” I don’t think he is at all pro-Hindu, but am willing to change my mind.

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            1. THAT is precisely my point! “Modi is not anti-Hindu” is the best that one can say about him and his government. Even that cannot be said about the Maharashtra BJP government.

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        2. You don’t know how demonetization literally ruined Khareef and Bagayati farmers of maharashtra ..

          It wrecked havoc ..

          BJP is already Gone in Rural maharashtra , & if they don’t combine with Sena , Congress Rule is guaranteed !!!

          We are fed up with Anti hindu agenda of Bhartiya Jain Party..

          Sorry..

          It’s just a flip side of Congress coin.

          BJP is Saffron Robbed Communist party & Well established RSS dynasty …

          !!! DynastyCrooks !!!

          NOTA NOTA NOTA NOTA …..

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        3. But they are not able to get rid of virulent pests called Rohingyas who have been dumped in Jammu. Why are they dithering on this?

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      2. Sir, I have no problem at all with highly intelligent contributors like you, Kannan etc. criticizing Modi government’s shortcomings. I know when all is said and done, you will vote for the lesser of all evils. My anger was towards the guy who claimed he voted for NOTA because Modi did not do this or did not do that.

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  5. A couple of stray thoughts. First, some people are blaming techies for taking a holiday instead of voting for the BJP. But I wonder whether some of the Telugu speakers in BLR did in fact vote against the BJP, in response to the exhortations of Naidu. If so, they are fools, in view of the second point, which is that Naidu has been indulging in MASSIVE THEFT of the jewels of the TTD. That is so far beneath contempt that I do not even know what to say. If Naidu wanted money, let him make it on construction projects; but where is the reason to loot the treasures of an ancient temple? At least YSR and Sonia had the excuse that they are Christians and thus don’t respect Hindus or their properties. What is Naidu’s excuse?

    If the BJP had ANY kind of a presence in AP, they could dislodge Naidu. Unfortunately they don’t. Ditto for Telangana too. Earlier they had dedicated leaders like Bandaru Dattatreya and Bangaru Lakshman, somewhat similar to BSY in Karnataka. Now the BJP in both AP and Telangana consists of lazy bums.

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  6. Prof. Vidyasagar,

    Agree with all your comments. Modi is not overtly Hindu but he doesnt seem to care about Hindus either. Next time he should just contest from Ahmedabad and not make a pretence of being a Hindu leader and contesting from Varanasi. Also most Hindus are aware that world class roads are going to take time but wonder why a freeing temples bill or repealing RTE is taking time. These are just a question of intent and BJP does not have it. Hence they are likely to fail and fall short in elections from hereon.

    As for David Fernandes, he has shown time and again that he is anti-Hindu. This is what is encouraging people like Naidu to loot TTD jewels. If the BJP comes across as not caring about Hindus then others are going to loot left and right.

    In my view the people who have done the most for Hindus in the last few years is the #ReclaimTemples/RestoreTemples initiative. These people have done great service to Hindus by restoring temples and restarting puja. If they were to contest elections I would vote for them without a second thought. A small rag-tag group of people is doing what the BJP cannot and will not do.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Mr. Kannan,

      Along those lines, the BJP governments not only continue to loot Hindu temples with the best of them, but they also pay a mere pittance to the poojaris — as low as Rs. 1,500 per month in Madhya Pradesh! So many of my friends and I have taken a decision NOT to put even one Rupee in the hundi (where all that happens is that the government loots it), and instead to offer a dakshina directly to the priest. Perhaps we should all start a “boycott hundi” movement.

      P.S. I guess you meant “Modi is not overtly ANTI-Hindu …”

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      1. Yes, I meant Modi is not overtly anti_Hindu

        Hindus need to work out a way to sustain and maintain temples and priests without the Government getting its hands on the money. Boycotting Hundi is certainly one way and a rich priest is better than a rich government. Maybe devotees can offer to keep the temple in good repair by organizing groups that collect money and maintaining the temple.

        As NCBN has shown, even someone who allied with BJP is not shy of looting temples and rubbing the nose of Hindus into the ground. And TTD is the holiest of the holy shrines in India. If this is the state of TTD, one can only imagine the plight of ordinary temples

        The European countries have the best infrastructure but are culturally ZERO. What is happening in Europe shows that without a cultural backbone, countries eventually fall and get destroyed.

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  7. As if licking the feet of NDA is not enough, now BJP ministers are licking the feet of Shobhaa De! Has anyone ever seen a non-BJP wallah say even something halfway complimentary about a right-winger? Honestly these BJP ministers seem to have rocks in their brains! Why are they sooooo lacking in self-confidence that they hanker after the crumbs of praise thrown their way from the ecosystem?

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    1. Height of stupidity by Kiren Rijiju!! This is the malaise affecting most BJP leaders who want to lick the feet of their opponents who are hell bent on inflicting damage to their party. When will the BJP grow balls to take the fight to opposition and not be defensive always? For heavens sake you have a single party majority in parliament and in most states and yet you act as if you are a tiny opposition party!!! Create your own ecosystem by demolishing and building your own and not by pandering the the opposition’s ecosystem.

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  8. I see quite a few quality comments to this article. I am wondering if I should dilute that … but will go ahead anyway and will try to be meaningful.

    Firstly, what CW has observed is correct. The end of Congress is near (in many states). However, with in a short span they will revive and surprise everyone by forming a government in some fort state. Congress is like “Ahi Ravana”. No matter how many times they are finished they will be revived from dead by those “bees” called prestitutes, pseudo lib-secs, moles in RW, leftists, NOGs and so on. These bees must be handled first and then the congress will have its true end. Until then, we will be fighting their shadows.

    Next, Modi is a Hindu. Not a pseudo Hindu or ashamed Hindu. He is a practicing Hindu and to begin with not against himself, thus NOT anti-Hindu. Now we cannot and should not be judging some one’s religious leanings from the actions they did not take. We cannot say Modi is not pro-hindu because he did not repeal RTE or because he did not free temples or because there is no Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, yet. When we, the supporters, do that, we create a doubt in the minds of followers. We should put followers in such ambiguous position. I know we are all very wise and hence are only sarcastic though

    Coming to CBN. Hahaha….. he is doing things so hurried that he has stopped covering his tracks. He probably knows that he won’t be coming back to power, unless a miracle happens and he is trying to do that miracle himself, which will blow on his face. We can call CBN certainly ANTI Hindu. He is not even neutral anymore. I do not see a difference between Jagan and CBN. Probably that’s what he is trying to project to Jagan’s voter base, but in the process he is loosing more than he could afford. Though I do not like Jagan, I think he will more seats in 2019 AP assembly elections than TDP. BJP must actively increase its base and be the kingmaker in Andhra.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. I don’t remember where but I read it somewhere a comment which goes something like this ‘Yes BJP and Modi are not anti-Hindu but they are not addressing the demands of their core Hindu voter base. While Congress always immediately on coming to power and even without being in power address the concerns of their core voter base – opposing triple talak bill, RTE, dividing Hindus by giving minority status to Lingayats etc,. So the only reason for core Hindu voter base that the BJP banks on is the TINA factor (there is no alternative) and the voter can choose not to vote at all if he doesn’t want to vote for others in other words he isn’t sufficiently motivated to go out and vote. Whereas, the Congress voters go out to vote as they are sure that their demands are addressed by it when they come to power and so there is a positive motivation’. Shanknad figure given above proves this fact very accurately. BJP and Modi should give a positive reason to vote which will bring in the numbers and should not merely rely on fickle TINA factor.

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  10. Dear Sankaram,

    “Now we cannot and should not be judging some one’s religious leanings from the actions they did not take.”

    WHY NOT? When enemies of Hindus are engaging in quite deliberate and overt acts, it is not enough for someone in Modi’s position to keep ducking the issues and keep screaming “vikas, vikas” all the time. Please read the article below. It made my blood boil.

    https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/barring-thanjavur-temple-ritual-by-the-church-indicates-the-shape-of-things-to-come

    So what will the “pro-Hindu” Modi government do about such things? Why, nothing of course!

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    1. I completely understand and i am more hurt than most when a Hindu temple or priest or a commonman are subjected to such political bigotry. Yes, i do see that, it is not some christians daring to dicatate terms in Tanjavur or muslim fanatics throwing stones on Ganesh chaturthi processions in Hyderabad. They are politically supported actions, despite religiously motivated, by some and i expect them to be crushed when Modi is PM irrespective of the opposition which might come and cry foul.

      However, these things are happening for many decades. Until Modi became PM there are even new words coined like “saffron terror”. But now the same people are doing temple runs. That is not because of Modi but due to awakened unified Hindus. Modi is just a representation of that. To keep this unified Hindu base growing and realising its strength, we must unambiguously support Modi. Modi is playing it safe and slow, probably because he understands a Hindu mentality more. But he is a Hindu and is pro majority.

      I have said in one of comments to an article here, Modi is not SriRam that we were waiting for. But he is definitely an Aja or could even be Dasaratha. He is making the ground for the next and we must support him for that.

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      1. To me, your comments are gold standard on the ongoing discussion. Indians in general are very anxious people and their anxiety shows everywhere, in traffic, in Qs( if at all they are in a Q), in hospitals and so on. This anxiety and urgency peaks specially when there is some action. We were in slumber for seventy years when the country was trudging along. Now that we are doing very well in power, in infrastructure, in economy too we must pick holes and bring back Congress. Then soon go back to slumber. In my opinion, Hindu resurgence is secondary to development. The country has to first be strong, powerful because being powerful is first requirement for Hindus.

        Liked by 1 person

  11. Please read this twitter thread by Ashu Muglikar.

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  12. Arnab Goswami, whom I generally find to be anti-Hindu, is now highlighting the interference of the Christian churches in politics. I felt that Goswami was anti-Hindu because, whenever some minor Hindu “god-man” does something strange, he immediately organises a “debate” in which he insinuates that every Hindu guru is a rapist, child-molester etc. Given the widespread paedophelia in the Catholic Church (to the extent that the Pope even has to “forgive” them), it is surprising that it took so long for Goswami to wake up:

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    1. He also brought up tirupati issue and for the first time touched upon HRCE act albeit indirectly. Hopefully more such will follow. If timesnow and republic raise it for some of the big temples like sabarimala, padmanabha swamy temple, srirangam etc,then we will have core awareness in many urban hindu homes.

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