So, it’s happened. Finally a deviation from the path that liberals had planned for Rahul Gandhi : a slow, but certain rise for the Shehzada as the only alternative to Modi. Who knew that something so big could be catalyzed by results of elections in the North East? For Rahul baba, these elections were too small and so he went to Italy for the weekend, confident that they would be forgotten before he returned.
This is poetic justice for Modi-Shah and their reward for taking nothing lightly. Every election is an exam, a celebration of democracy. Opportunities come to karamyogis who try to grab them, not lazy losers who run away.
Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao wants the Third Front to take shape again. And he has received a lot of interest from Mamata Banerjee, from the DMK, the TDP, the SP and BSP. Suddenly, there is a buzz around this movement and one can only hope it gathers more steam.
In the process, Rahul Gandhi has suffered a tremendous blow. His entire strength lay in being seen as the only alternative to BJP. For a while now, the regional players seemed to have reconciled to that. But talk of Third Front has brought them out of the woodwork with their real aspirations.
For a while now, I have been talking (and complaining) about what I call the Congress Party’s “5% politics.” The idea is that a rump Congress in most states is ready to become a footmat for a regional player. The only thing they seek in return is that these parties support Rahul Gandhi for PM. The Congress is happy to lose deposit in seats in Bengal and Odisha where it had sitting MLAs until yesterday : all they ask in return is that the regional satrap support Rahul Gandhi for PM.
This fits perfectly with the Congress Party’s view of itself. It has long stopped being a political party; it is now a lobbying organization of the Dynasty to put itself on the PM post. The party does not care about its supporters or its organization. It has a single point agenda of getting Rahul Gandhi to be PM.
While this is a terrible strategy for the long term, it has short term advantages because it gives the Congress massive flexibility to gather allies. The Congress was reducing itself to largely “psychological power,” it’s status as a national party, the family’s history of occupying the PM post, along with access to its extensive Lutyens ecosystem. It was on the basis of this psychological power that Congress was demanding the PM chair for Rahul Gandhi.
Huge credit here to the regional parties for seeing through the ruse here and to KCR for being the first to call it out openly. The aspirations of the so called “regional parties” here are totally legitimate. The Congress is reduced to little over 40 seats. By what yardstick do they see themselves as so much more than a regional party?
Congress cannot demand the PM post for Rahul on the basis of his last name. The India of old has passed into history long ago.
If Congress does not have the organization on the ground, it must bow down to regional parties that do have the organization.
So, what is in it for BJP and Modi? Why am I so excited?
Because Rahul Gandhi faces a huge challenge now for being the face of the Opposition. That’s why. The surest way for BJP to win the General Election is if Pappu and his lobbyists have to spend all their time fighting regional leaders and convincing them to get behind the Congress.
There is one and only one solid, unmistakable trend in Indian elections. A trend that has been going strong for nearly 15 years now. Voters want clear leadership and they want to deliver clear, even one-sided mandates. The BJP’s biggest advantage is that they are the only party that is seen as having a chance of getting 272 seats. “Coalition government” has almost become a dirty word.
With Third Front talk reviving, Pappu will be seen as one among many faces … alongside and on the same footing as Mamata or KCR or even Akhilesh. And why not? All of these leaders are much better politicians than Rahul has ever been.
Modi vs a jumble of faces fighting over who the “real” leader is. If this is the equation that is presented before the public in 2019, I have no doubt that the BJP will return with 272+ seats. But what about the arithmetic, you may ask. I’ll say it doesn’t matter. Who thought the Congress would get 22 seats from UP in 2009? Who thought the BJP would get 73 seats from UP in 2014? Indian voters have become used to breaking the rules of arithmetic when they want to see a certain person in power. If Modi is seen as a clear leader facing a disorganized opposition, the seats for BJP will start pouring in from places you would never expect : sudden spurts in Bengal, in Odisha and more.
By the way, the Congress camp knows it too.
That’s right, losers!
dynastycrooks 
Government, specially PM must focus on National issues not on every state election. BJP is a election centred party. For three years they did all the blunders like demonetisation etc, now when they have just one year left, they are extremely cautious. Why a nationalist govt. will do that? Because they are not interested in nation building but to promote their ideology. An ideology which is dangerous for Indian development. India is a land of diversity. Our nation is known for unity in diversity.
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Please see SC & HC judgments on KRATI and after analyzing it as a common man then give lectures on ideology on this forum.
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Demonetisation… a BLUNDER? Get your facts right, Sir. Or even better go for a medical checkup….
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You need medical checkup first by friend.
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You are beyond any medical check up.
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Blind faith is dangerous, come out of it.
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As an Andhra, I feel genuinely saddened by the parting of the ways (not 100% just yet) between Naidu’s TDP and the BJP. A lot of BJP bhakthas have written a whole lot of nonsense about Naidu on twitter. Rishi Bagree, for whom usually I have respect, has gone on and on about how in 2014 the TDP won because of the BJP and not the other way around. Since practically everyone on this forum is a BJP supporter (including me), I would like to highlight a few points.
1. Among Andhras, Naidu has always been seen as an efficient administrator. Well before Modi entered the scene, Naidu was the first one to be called a “CEO CM.” He introduced a variety of e-services in AP, such as e-seva, on-line tracking of government approvals, and what not. If today Hyderabad has any presence at all in IT, it is solely due to Naidu. Anyone who remembers the narrow and congested roads of Hyderabad during the 1990s will know that it was Naidu, and Naidu alone, who improved things to the state where they are today. Even the miraculous outer ring road and new airport were conceptualized by him. So for BJP bhakthas to trash Naidu because he dared to speak up would be silly.
2. In the 1990s the BJP had strong leaders from AP, such as my namesake Vidyasagar Rao (now a Governor), Bandaru Dattatreya (Minister in the Vajpayee government), and the late Bangaru Lakshman (Party President of the BJP and one of the first victims of Tarun Tejpal). Today there is no one. So to say that the BJP helped Naidu to win the Assembly elections is again quite silly.
3. Many on this forum seem to be admirers of Jaitley. I am not. I consider him an egomaniac and essentially corrupt (witness his shielding of Chdambaram father and son, and nurturing the pro-Congress bureaucrats left behind by Chidambaram). I do not know the nuances of the AP Reorganisation Act that was so hastily passed by Santa Sonia with enthusiastic backing by Venkaiah Naidu and Jaitley. Thanks to Sonia’s muficience, Telangana got 70% of the revenue for 30% of the people, and AP got 30% of the revenue for 70% of the people. The Act was supposed to compensate AP for this revenue loss. If indeed Jaitley faithfully implemented all the promises of the Act, all he had to do was to say so. Until this past Saturday he did not make any public statement, and by then the public mood in AP had become really poisonous.
4. Naidu is genuinely worried about the traction that Jaganmohan Reddy is getting in his tours, highlighting the neglect of AP by the BJP. I must say that, as an admirer of both Naidu and Modi, I too share the same view. Undoubtedly for Naidu it is a survival strategy to be seen as decoupling from the BJP. However, he has no ambitions at the national level. By lumping him with all the comedians who fancy themselves as Prime Ministers in waiting, you are doing him an injustice.
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Vidyasagarji, don’t forget it was Naidu and not BJP who decided to part the way. And the only issue on which Naidu did that is a special status for Andhra. Andhra is much richer and advanced state (of course thanks to Naidu) than all those states which enjoy special status. I bet even Naidu knows that, but since his opponents have grabbed hold of that issue, Naidu had no choice but to show that he cares about the special status as much as his opponents.
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Well I don’t want to start comparisons but in all those GDP wise backward states, Andhras are more disciplined, agriculturally high yielding, technically advanced, law abiding…Which resulted in the richness of the state at first place. But Andhra did lose a lot with bifurcation. I don’t mind if we don’t get a special status, we will become rich state again for sure, please don’t compare us with other lawless states and say we are richer than them. Of course we are, and we deserve better for that outrageous way of bifurcation.
Chandrababu Naidu is really in a corner now. From what I deduced upon many inquiries, Jagan Reddy is popular in most of the rural Andhra. His padayatra is only cementing that. Special status is just a reason to blame for something he couldn’t do, no one could really, miracle, in building new Andhra. Simply politics. But he is better than Jagan, way better. It would be real sad if Jagan wins 2019.
Modi plus Naidu sounded a good deal in 2014. But if BJP wants, as I read somewhere today, a single party government in 2019, good for the country. I hope BJP doesn’t support Jagan.
And one of the main reasons for Naidu in power 2014 was certainly Modi wave and Pawan Kalyan, 5 districts were clearly swung by him.
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Joshiji, you are making the same mistake that many people make when saying “AP is an advanced state.” The correct question to ask is simply this: “Did AP become poorer after to bifurcation due to the unfair allocation of resources?” The answer is a resounding YES! The fact that AP is still richer than Bihar is not relevant in my view.
I doubt Naidu would actually undermine the BJP. But by not assisting Naidu to win in AP, the BJP is also making a huge mistake. As I said above, the BJP in AP is a total zero right now. Assisting Jagan to win in AP won’t help the BJP in any way. If, heaven forbid, the BJP ties up with Jagan, their anti-corruption reputation will go up in smoke in 24 hours.
As for “special status,” if it was promised as a part of the AP Reorganisation Act, then it has to be given; otherwise not. Since the BJP top brass, especially Jaitley, is dancing around this topic, I suspect that it was promised in the Act but not implemented. I would be happy to be educated about this.
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Sir, from the comments of various BJP leaders, I got the impression that BJP was in as much pain when Naidu decided to cut tie with BJP as you and me. I have not yet heard any BJP leader supporting Jagan but I have read that Jagan if elected, may throw his support to whoever wins at the center in 2019. In that case I doubt that BJP will reject his support.
I don’t think even Bihar is awarded special status yet and I doubt “Lawlessness” is one of the requirement for a special status award, at least not on the paper. As I remember reading somewhere, one of the major requirement for special status category was the Tribal population.
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Just two points Joshiji: (1) If Jagan wins in AP, then AP will become 100% Christian during his five years, thus completing the project started by YSR during his time. AP will then join Tamil Nadu and Kerala as being permanently beyond the reach of the BJP. That would make it harder for the BJP to win future elections. (2) If the BJP accepts the support of a rank corrupt and anti-Hindu person like Jagan just to stay in power, then it cannot claim to be a “party with a difference.”
It seems to me that the BJP had a stake in ensuring that Naidu wins in AP. I repeat what I said above. The great Jaitley did not make any public statement about the state finances of AP until last Saturday. Had the BJP top brass tried hard to “make Naidu look good,” I don’t think he would have walked away. He still hasn’t walked away completely.
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The provisions relating to AP reorganisation act that are relevant from the funds point of view “special status” etc. are as under:
(1) The award made by the Thirteenth Finance Commission to the existing State of Andhra Pradesh shall be apportioned between the successor States by the Central Government on the basis of population ratio and other parameters.
Provided that on the appointed day, the President shall make a reference to the Fourteenth Finance Commission to take into account the resources available to the successor States and make separate awards for each of the successor States.
(2) Notwithstanding anything in sub-section (1), the Central Government may, having regard to the resources available to the successor State of Andhra Pradesh, make appropriate grants and also ensure that adequate benefits and incentives in the form of special development package are given to the backward areas of that State.
(3) The Central Government shall, while considering the special development package for the successor State of Andhra Pradesh, provide adequate incentives, in particular for Rayalaseema and north coastal regions of that State.
Arun Jaitley stated in his press conference that after 14th Finance Commission recommendations were agreed, there is no category called ‘special status’ except to certain 2-3 states that were specifically granted such status by the 14 Finance Commission. He further stated that he will compensate AP similar to the special status states but cannot grant special status.
Where Arun Jaitley is incorrect – He is incorrect in stating that after 14th Finance Commission recommendations were implemented there cannot be any special status for AP as there is no such categorization of AP in 14th Finance Commission recommendations. The AP Reorganisation Act 2014 does empower the Central Government to make ‘appropriate grant’ in the form of “Special Development Package”.
It is clear from the above that there is a clear provision in the Act which requires the Central Government to make appropriate grants in the form of special development package to the backward areas of Andhra Pradesh. Even after the 14th Finance Commission recommendations were implemented the Act empowers the Central Government to make ‘appropriate grants’ to AP in the form of special development package.
However, as is usually the case in typical Indian Babu drafted Laws they will not mention what is meant by ‘appropriate grant’ in the Act itself. IT is subject to interpretation and issue of issue regulations separately!!!
The points of dispute / disagreement due to perceptional differences:
1. There is a difference in perception between what the Centre considers as ‘appropriate grant’ figure and what the State considers as ‘appropriate grant’.
2. The announcement of ‘Special Status’ to AP which Babu wants and Jaitely is resisting.
Solutions to the issue:
This is an emotional issue being exploited by Jagan which is driving Naidu to position himself as being politically correct in fighting for ‘special status’ for AP. Under the AP Reorganisation Act 2014 there Centre should make the ‘appropriate grants’ and announce the amount of such grant by calling it as “Special Development Package” for AP under the AP Reorganisation Act. Since Jaitely is ready to give assistance as per his press conference, all that requires is announcement of the grant as “Special Development Package” under the AP Reorganisation Act. The money part can been resolved much more easily but the announcement by Centre will enable Naidu to claim a political victory as a champion who fought for and got the package from Centre.
This is doable and Jaitely must do at the earliest. Any delay is not going to help the matters and Jagan is utilising the delay to his advantage.
Sorry for the long post.
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Dear Raj,
First of all thank you for the detailed explanation. It clarifies many things.
I am sorry, but I simply DO NOT BELIEVE that Jaitley is ready to give assistance equivalent to Special Status. If he had been ready, he would have done so long ago. Instead he has set his media pidis onto Naidu, saying that AP has not sent utilisation certificates for the money already released (trivial amounts), and floating rumours that Naidu is diverting funds from various projects into the TDP party funds.
The BJP has three choices: (i) make Naidu look good so that they have a dependable ally going forward, (ii) remain neutral and hope things work out for the best, and (iii) “teach Naidu a lesson” for daring to question the great BJP. They seem to have chosen Option (iii), which is long-term a VERY stupid strategy. As I have said repeatedly, if Jagan has even five years, AP would become 100% Christian and thus out of the grasp of the BJP forever. I hope the decision-makers see the light and choose Option (i).
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Dear Prof. Vidyasagar,
Jaitley obfuscates issues like the lawyer that he is. Plus he is the closest that any BJP leader can be with the Lutyens set in Delhi. There is a clear provision in the AP Reorganization Act but he talks of 14th FInance Commission determined amounts! Are the Chidambaram’s babus in FM dictating the terms of the discourse in this matter in pursuance of congi’s Agenda to split TDP from NDA?
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