Cheers in Delhi, disaster in Karnataka

For Indian Twitter, it’s slim pickings on the political scene. So we are left looking at the results of the various bypolls strewn across the land, sniffing for some sign of things to come.

There are some expected victories, like Bandhavgarh in Madhya Pradesh, Dholpur in Rajasthan, Bhoranj in Himachal and Dhemaji in Assam. But it will sting that the BJP failed to snatch the Littipara seat in Jharkhand from the JMM. It is kind of amazing that despite having dominated Jharkhand, there are still remote parts of the state that are out of the party’s bandwidth. In Bengal, the BJP continues to rise straight upwards, from losing deposit with just 8% vote in 2016 in Contai (Kathia) South constituency, the party is now sitting north of 30% vote. Another seat where the Communists have now lost deposit. Yay!

But there were two big results that defined the day: the first was Rajouri Garden where BJP has not only won the seat, but polled over 50% of the votes. More importantly, it has sent AAP hurtling down to a pathetic 3rd position.

Something just changed in Delhi. And I for one, didn’t anticipate it in the slightest. I’m totally blindsided by the outcome.

Honestly, there aren’t many examples of a ruling party getting its head shoved into the toilet bowl like AAP was humiliated in Rajouri Garden today. This cannot be the outcome of anti-incumbency or some localised desire for change. This was sheer voter fury.

AAP should be sh*t scared right now. It’s like the people of Delhi are feeling personally guilty for creating this national embarrassment called Kejriwal. Is Delhi sending the rest of the country an apology? Is Delhi looking for redemption? If that is the case, the MCD poll has gone very far from being about any local issue. AAP might actually get obliterated in the coming elections.

I must say this is very far from my estimations till now. I had mostly assumed that Dilliwallahs are mostly sticking with their choice and buying Kejriwal’s excuses to a large extent. With Delhi BJP’s record so pathetic, I had assumed they would stick with Kejriwal. But I could be very very badly wrong and I’d be happy about it 🙂 If the people of Delhi see the coming MCD polls as a way to do public penance before the whole country for their disastrous decision of  Feb 2015, then god help Kejriwal and his team of tricksters…

So much for the excitement. What has again stunned me is the result from Nanjagud in Karnataka where Srinivasa Prasad has lost miserably to Siddharamaiah’s candidate. This was a very personal battle between Yeddy and Siddhu and the Karnataka CM, often underestimated as a politician, is perhaps the biggest winner in the country today.

For a while now, the BJP has been perhaps playing fast and loose in Karnataka, confident that the state is ripe for the picking, just waiting to fall into the BJP’s lap when elections happen in 2018. The BJP certainly has been taking it easy. Nowhere was this more evident as during the Kaveri water crisis. Yeddy made a disastrous decision to stay away from the all party meet, a missed opportunity that Siddhu milked to the fullest. Then, there was horrible messaging on Kaveri water sharing … and a foolish remark by Shaina NC ran on loop on Kannada channels. Modi stepped in at the last moment over the Kaveri water tribunal and the crisis seemed to blow over … or did it? Today the results of both polls in the same Mysuru region seem to suggest otherwise.

The BJP, on its part, was definitely convinced that the Kaveri crisis was a closed chapter. They returned to their public bickerings, as if 2018 was a done deal. Bringing in S M Krishna also added to the image of a collapsing Congress. Srinivasa Prasad is a big Dalit leader imported from Congress and honestly, he should have won in Nanjagud today. I don’t think Yeddy for a moment believed that the BJP would lose today. HE chose to make the battle absolutely personal. He thought so because he really had all the cards. I would have put the BJP’s chance of winning Nanjagud above 90% today.

But BJP has lost in Karnataka today. The result is so stunning that one has to think out of the box for explanations. My first and foremost suspicion will go to the Kaveri issue. Siddharamaiah took a firm stand on Karnataka’s water and it was unambiguous. The BJP’s stand, on the other hand, was a joke.

The second suspicion would be on whether Karnataka is expressing disapproval on the politics of defections recently being embraced by the BJP. And the third possibility could be the party’s own loyal workers not putting in their best as they feel estranged due to an influx of newcomers.

Today has been a huge wake up call for BJP. If we are to have Congress-mukt-Bharat, it is an absolute imperative for the party to plant the saffron flag in Bengaluru. It’s good that this disaster came a full year before the real election. Yeddyurappa now has time to identify his enemies and his mistakes.

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11 thoughts on “Cheers in Delhi, disaster in Karnataka

  1. Really sad for Bengaluru and Karnataka! the opposition has to do a through home work and gear up for the 2018 elections. Else Lotus will never bloom in KAR and all chances for JDS to be flourishing in KAR

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  2. Yes CW.. This By Election results was totally stunned to Me.

    First BJP won Delhi Rajori Seat
    Second BJP won Dholpur Seat in Rajasthan Despite of huge negative media propaganda against Vasundara Raje and all pro Sachin Pilot Fake wave created by local leading newspaper Rajasthan patrika.I was suspecting win for BJP as I was following these newspapers from my Home state..
    Third BJP loss in Karnataka as it was not expected at all.
    Fourth BJP leading performance in WB and I assume WB will deliver good results in 2019…
    I hope BJP will retain Rajasthan in 2018 despite of huge negative media propaganda against Vasundara Raje

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  3. It is time to enjoy the dubbing AAP got in Delhi. Not winning the non-BJP seats of Karnataka will not cut down this enjoyment.

    I am happy that BJP did not succeed in the two seats of Mysore region, as otherwise BSY’s arrogance would have sky rocketed. Now AShah has ample room to control that arrogance when it comes to handle 2018 assembly elections.

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  4. What ? Delhi people got tired of feeding Rs 16000 Thali so soon ? Well, they have to bear with Kejriwal for few more years. By that time, Thali price will be Rs 100000

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  5. Don’t feel so re-assured about Delhi ! The freebie greedy voters can go running to Kejru again, with their lips smacking and their tongues hanging out … at the prospect of zero property tax ! Jo bhi free mein mile le lo – Raja bhi pAAPi, janta bhi pAAPi 🤓

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    1. Yeah,the people who get bought by parties with money that is stolen from them also deserve what they get.

      Look at Tamil Nadu for example

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  6. if bjp has to win in karnataka. yeddi has to be under control of amitshah.there are too many power centres in karnataka bjp and a lot of infighting. no good acceptable leaders

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  7. I agree with Raji’s comment. BSY needs to be controlled by Amit Shah to win Karnataka; while he has been exonerated in the mining scam case, I am not sure he has much credibility in general in Karnataka (I have four VERY good friends from Bangalore who have independently mentioned this to me). Good alert but wouldn’t be too worried about it. Assembly elections are a while away so there is plenty of time to strategize and course-correct.

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  8. I was not at all surprised by BJP failing to win the Nanjangud and Gundlupet seats in Karnataka. Srinivasa Prasad should have won in Nangangud, but his over confidence and lack of respect for the BJP cadre cost him. Whereas Yeddi and others hit the campaign trail at 9am, Srinivasa Prasad would start at 12 noon! He never bothered to visit many BJP strong areas. He showed no trust and respect to the followers of late Mahadevu (BJP leader at Nanjangud). Good that he LOST. Such turncoats are of no use. Regarding Gundlupet, the sympathy wave helped the widow of late congress MLA to win by just over 10000 votes. Silver lining is BJP has incresed its vote share in both places. And I believe good strategising and proper candidate selection who has the support of the local cadre would help BJP to snatch these seats in 2018. Amit Shah should start camping in Bengaluru at the earliest.

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  9. As of now, it seems that BJP will win Karnataka next year. However, so much internal fighting is happening in Karnataka BJP it seems. While BSY is almost confident about him for CM, age may minus point. BSY is crucial for lingayat votes, but age may go against him. He is almost 74 or 75 years. Eshwarappa who is junior to him has age as his plus point. Amit shah needs to look into this, otherwise overconfidence may be roadblock for BJP. Its good that, BJP lost, They will have to first finish internal fighting.

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  10. I don’t understand all the hate for Delhi here.1 thing you have to understand is that Delhi voter is not your traditional “loyalty voter”,they are not beholden to anyone like the rest of India,which you guys seem to think is so much better voters just because your party wins.I mean EC had to cancel TN by-poll because voters just had to take the free money right?Such hateful and “holier than thou” attitude of people is really sickening.Let me tell you,Voters in Delhi are at least much better than whatever state you are from,at least we vote based on issues rather than the party name,and there is no widespread vote buying or muscle power here.

    The fact that almost no one on the RW is willing to accept is that AAP ran a good campaign in Delhi in 2015. BJP did not.Delhi is probably the most affected by the media campaign and and the general US style politics which is focused on issues rather than identity politics and strongmen

    And now AAP’s campaign and performance are mostly shit.so Kejriwal is bound to go out

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