Mock me tomorrow : BJP will win BMC

Wow!

untitled

Now, 55% turnout isn’t great. Not even close to great. But by Mumbai standards, it is HUGE!

You can see in the screenshot of the Times of India article : the turnout was just 45.6% in 2012. A rise of 10% in  voter turnout!!! What is more, the turnout surpasses both the Assembly polls and the Lok Sabha polls.

I know that the theory of higher turnouts indicating anti-incumbency has long been discredited. So, I am not going to use it.

As I said in my post from yesterday, I am looking at the BMC polls through a bunch of simple thumb rules. A higher turnout indicates that the usually lazy and more affluent have come out to vote. And who do the more affluent people support? Simple answer : BJP.

It’s very hard to imagine that a solid 10% extra voters came out to support the hafta wasooli and negative politics of the Shiv Sena. Maybe there is some “emotional Marathi Manoos” factor that I do not understand. But, seeing a 10% rise in turnout, I am sticking to my prediction of an easy win for BJP.

Now, I am keenly aware that the exit poll by Axis puts the Shiv Sena marginally ahead of the BJP.

untitled

Although, to be fair, Axis did give the same vote share to both parties.

untitled

Beyond that, I have been told by right wing people on Twitter as well as commenters here that I might not understand the emotional connect between Mumbai’s Marathi voters and the Shiv Sena. That may well be. But I am not going to hedge my bets. I am going to bet 100% that BJP will have an easy and unprecedented victory in the BMC polls. 

On Twitter, I found someone who had posted a shot of this bit from Mid Day giving the voter turnout in the last few BMC elections.

untitled

It used to hover between 44 and 46% and its suddenly spiked to 55%! So many people coming out to support instability in Maharashtra? I hardly think so… Something special has happened yesterday in Mumbai. I am trying hard to remember a previous election when turnout jumped suddenly by as much as 10% …

Another amazing voter turnout story unfolded yesterday in the NCP stronghold of Pimpri Chinchwad Muncipal Corporation (PCMC). The voter turnout jumped suddenly from 52% in 2012 to as much as 67%! That’s a breathtaking 15%! If all these people have come out in Pimpri Chinchwad to vote NCP back to power, that would truly constitute a bizarre result. Remember that Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad are the last urban strongholds of NCP.

untitled

One more small point. I have said before that I don’t like to look at single data points. I prefer to see a bunch of data points and believe only what is common to all of them. Maybe the emotional appeal from Uddhav Thackeray touched off a wave among Marathi voters that led to an explosive turnout in Mumbai. But then, how do you explain the 15% jump in voter turnout in Pimpri-Chinchwad? Shiv Sena is not even in the race over there. However, BJP is a common factor in both of those places. A wave for BJP seems like a simple, common explanation to both events… instead of assuming two separate waves: one for Sena in Mumbai and another for NCP in Pimpri-Chinchwad.

So you can mock me tomorrow, but I will say that BJP is on course to win both in BMC and in Pune. It will also give the NCP the shock of its lifetime by snatching Pimpri Chinchwad. If you can’t wait, please start mocking now 🙂

Finally, you might have noticed that my article so far does not even mention the Congress party. Why should it? They are not in the race anywhere. The Congress party ruled Maharashtra for 60 out of the 64 years from 1950-2014. We are discussing Maharashtra today and I didn’t even need to mention the Congress party. Doesn’t this feel wonderful in itself?

Advertisements

16 thoughts on “Mock me tomorrow : BJP will win BMC

  1. I will come back to this post tomorrow. Shiv Sena will win max number of seats in BMC. On the other hand, BJP will win both, PMC and PCMC as they have played development as well as caste card accurately.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. What’s really fascinating is that congress is not mentioned anywhere even in media. Only shivsena and bjp. Even NCP is hardly the talk of the town.
    If shivsena is projected as a serous contender to bjp, it just shows that the media has not taken into account anti incumbency as a factor. This is a serious error when it comes to bmc elections.
    Development is the only criteria for this election and bjp scores 100 and others 0.

    Like

  3. According to the exit polls,BMC will be a close contest,BJP will edge out Congress-NCP in Pune,Shiv Sena will cruise to victory in Thane and BJP will easily win Nagpur(as expected).

    Like

  4. If this prediction of yours of “easy win for BJP in BMC” comes true tomorrow, you will become easily the best & dependable arm chair psephologist.

    Like

    1. Following up on Raghav’s comment, I would like to remind everyone that it was TIME that put out the fake story on Pres. Trump’s inauguration day that the bust of Martin Luther King has been removed from the White House. When it was pointed out that the bust was still very much in place, the reporter who put out the fake story tried to weasel out by saying that probably a Secret Service man was standing in front of it. What an utterly nonsensical explanation! If you can’t see a bust because a man is standing in front of it, wouldn’t you get to a spot where you can peek behind him, and make sure, before spreading a story that MLK’s bust has been removed?

      Until the election of Donald Trump, I would have rated our Indian presstitutes as being miles “ahead” of their US counterparts. Now I am no longer sure.

      Like

  5. CW, agree with your analysis – in fact, I had commented along similar lines on yesterday’s post that higher turnout typically is a positive sign for the BJP. Let’s hope we are both right.

    Like

  6. Axis India Today exit polls turned out to be correct.
    But there are grounds to rejoice for all of us that from a mere 31 in 2012, BJP poll vaulted to more than 80, whereas Shiv Sena could not get back their 2012 tally and all other parties fared very very badly compared to 2012.

    Like

  7. Both BJP and Shiv Sena should rule BMC independently with the outside support of each other, for 30 months each. Who will rule first should be decided by toss of coin.

    Like

  8. Given that neither SS nor BJP has a majority, the BJP should allow SS to run the BMC with Congress support. That would ensure the decimation of the SS the next time around.

    Glad to see that NCP has been wiped out in Pune.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s