Congress party collapsing in Karnataka

As right wingers, one of our obsessions is worrying about stuff. Not just in general… about every class monitor election… it is all part of our big grand worry about the 2019 General Election ūüôā Because we can’t get the ghost of 2004 out of our heads. Worrying about 2019 makes right wingers who we are. It’s what we do ūüôā

Ultimately, no one can predict elections … be it state elections or general elections… years in advance.¬†A week can be a long time in politics. Let me remind you that merely one month ago, everyone thought that demonetization was going to be the No. 1 issue in the election. No one can predict the ebb and flow on a daily basis.

So what really matters is¬†controlling squares on the chessboard. The party that has the best leaders in key positions in maximum number of states will win the most elections. You can’t really say anything about specific elections… just like you can’t predict with certainty¬†the outcome of a ¬†specific coin toss. What we can say however, is that if¬†the coin is sufficiently biased towards say “Heads”, then “Heads” will come up a lot more times than “Tails”.

India is like that chessboard. The Congress used to play the game well. It faced many challengers over decades, but it always¬†controlled enough squares on the chessboard to fight back. The Congress lost in 1999, but it was still sufficiently strong in enough places to edge out the BJP in the waveless election of 2004. It had solid batteries in place in most states…¬†not all of them would fire in any given election…but always enough of them fired to keep the party in power nationally. The 2004 win, for instance, was built on the backs of the Congress strength in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.

It is with 2014 that the bottom fell out of the Congress party. The Congress has become marginal in Delhi and in Andhra Pradesh. Urban support for Congress in Maharashtra has crumbled to the point that the upcoming BMC elections are between BJP and Shiv Sena, while Congress would be really lucky to get even 15-16% of the votes.

Meanwhile, the new states of India show the direction of the nation’s polity. Take Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. The Congress has never won an election in 3 out of the 4 new states created in this century!

And now the Congress is crumbling in one more large state with 28 seats : Karnataka.


There he goes. Perhaps the last Congress leader who could actually be credited with something. S M Krishna was the man who saw the potential of Bengaluru. Yes he was really old. Yes, he had no conceivable political future at this stage. But his need to quit the part so publicly shows what is happening to the Congress. No mass leader wants his name to be associated with the Congress party.

At his age, S M Krishna is no threat to anybody. No wonder Yeddyurappa has personally welcomed him to join BJP. It’s a pure win-win. The BJP gets to shame the Congress by taking its last “vikas purush” in Karnataka. And no BJP leader has to give up any political space for the 84 year old S M Krishna.

This when the Congress was facing disaster in Karnataka anyway. The BJP of course continues to lead a charmed life in Karnataka. There are few states in which BJP has made as many mistakes as they made in Karnataka. Start with the misadventure of making Deve Gowda’s son Kumaraswamy the Chief Minister back in 2007. Then go to how the BJP removed Yeddyurappa due to Lutyens outrage. Then go to how the BJP allowed Yeddy to quit and form a separate party!! Even in the recent Kaveri dispute with Tamil Nadu, boycotting Siddharamaiah’s all party meeting was an absolute disaster. As if that wasn’t enough, there came the silly comments from Shaina NC!¬†When the whole of Karnataka was going crazy over Kaveri water, Shaina NC comes out and speaks in favor of Tamil Nadu. The Kannada local channels went nuts, leaving BJP fumbling for answers. Yes, Shaina NC is Aamir Khan’s best friend and for some reason also Fadnavis’ best friend. This is what happens when pure nonsense “leaders” shoot their mouths off ¬†on issues they are absolutely clueless about. But somehow ¬†the BJP survived this as well.¬†Modi swooped in and grabbed the opportunity to take a stand on the Kaveri water tribunal. He saved the day.

(Side note: Please read the above paragraph purely in terms of realpolitik. BJP has no immediate stake in Tamil Nadu but a lot of political capital invested in Karnataka. In my mind, there was no doubt which state Modi should have backed. I will say the same about the SYL canal issue between Punjab and Haryana. BJP should back Haryana).

But all’s well that ends well. The BJP continues to live its charmed life in Karnataka. And the Congress is taking itself out of contention for another 28 Lok Sabha seats. Excellent. One more step towards Congress mukt Bharat.

13 thoughts on “Congress party collapsing in Karnataka


    The poll scenario in Punjab and UP as of now:

    Our Punjab poll survey concluded today in record time of just over 8 days. We now have the full data and now begins the actual work of adding weightages using VWISM (Voter Weightage Index Sampling Methodology) templates for different sub-regions of Punjab and data parsing using our statistical regressive models which would give us the final derivatives. Raw numbers are still mostly inconclusive so we are hoping that we would be in a position to give a definitive analysis of Punjab in the next 48 to 72 hours.
    Bottom-line:: This is still quite a tough state to predict and we need to be extra cautious before actual voting on Saturday

    [Updated: Jan-31-2017, 6 PM]

    Uttar Pradesh:
    With 2/3rd of our survey having been completed in Uttar Pradesh and 3/4th of the geographies having been covered, we are now entering the crucial last part of our ground polling activity wherein we also make-up for any statistical anomalies till now (like over sampling of particular demographics etc.). Raw numbers still show a pretty strong tiding towards BJP while most opposition parties seem to be struggling, especially BSP. As of now raw numbers seem to be pretty consistent across all regions and all days with expected statistical deviations. Really, the only crucial aspect now is to model these numbers before we can pronounce complete clarity.
    Bottom-line: UP looks like a far clearer state at least at the outset based on raw numbers, unlike Punjab.

    I am surprised by the lack of clarity in Punjab.Expected Captain to attain a clear lead.Is there some sabotage by Congress High Command?

    And while UP seems to be Advantage BJP,i would rather wait for the complete analysis before making any conclusions


  2. Well, Capt. Amarinder Singh is one guy who refers to the retard as “Rahul” and noot “Rahul-JI”. That surely won’t go down well with the maa-beta duo. Also, AAP’s campaign seems to have been rejuvenated with a huge influx of Khalistani money.. On Twitter I saw a photo of AAP posters in Canada! Now why on earth would an Indian party fighting Assembly elections in India advertise in Canada? The answer stares us in the face. But I am genuinely disappointed that our Punjabi brethren have still not managed to see through this charlatan and his party. Hope better sense prevails as polling day nears.

    Regarding UP, I am glad that Dr. Patil’s ground work shows that the BJP advantage is still holding, despite all attempts by “Lootyens” media to create confusion. I hope the BJP comes through.

    Regarding Karnataka, the BJP has been shooting itself in its collective foot for quite a while now. BSY was sacked by Advani as a part of his “Sonia-envy” strategy, and proved to be a colossal blunder, after all charges against BSY were dropped by the courts. But that allowed Congress to grab power. This is why I think of Advani as Congress’ B team head.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I have hear some comments and reports saying some in BJP are unhappy with BSY,and that he does not give adequate space to other leaders.Is that legitimate?


    2. Canada NRIs of Punjab origin always had and still have sympathy for Khalistani movement. Even after downing Air India plane, Sikh community in India said enough is enough, but not the Canadian Sikh community. All those NRIs flocking in India to campaign for AAP belong to this class. They don’t care what Kejriwal and AAP had done for Delhites, they only care that Kejriwal is the only leader who has shown open sympathy for Khalistani movement.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Gr8 analysis CW. Media knows that, BJP is surely going to make a come back in Karnataka, so they are already trying to make a split in Karnataka BJP. They are trying to create a scenario about internal fight between BSY and KS Eshwarappa (one of top leader in Karnataka BJP). see the link.

    S.M. Krishna is believed to be one of the man, who understood potential of Bangalore. The credit for growth of Bangalore should go to him. Good that, he left congress. Congress does not need talent, they need bootlickers.


  4. Dear Chaiwallah,

    Off-topic but congrats on your Ganesha article being published in OpIndia. Many of the twitter feeds I read are referencing it. You are slowly but surely gaining an audience beyond just the few of us who comment here! Keep going!


  5. Off topic!…is this true?…first time reading…..Horrifying!

    ‚ě°¬†On 31st January 1979, a total of 1,700 Hindus refugees who had fled Bangladesh due to persecution were massacred by West Bengal police and communist cadres on the orders of then Chief Minister Jyoti Basu.
    ‚ě°¬†More than 100 Hindu women were raped again and again by Communist cadres and policemen. After raping them, they were shot, beheaded or brutally beaten to death.
    ‚ě°¬†15 innocent Hindu children aged 5-10 who had taken shelter in a hut were BEHEADED with knives by Communist cadres and police who were given orders to kill all the Hindu refugees. These innocent children were preparing for the Saraswati Puja (which was on 1 February)
    ‚ě°¬†After killing them, the communists destroyed the statue of Saraswati that was being decorated by those kids to celebrate the Pooja next day.
    ‚ě°¬†4,128 Hindu families perished in transit, died of starvation, exhaustion, and many were killed in Kashipur, Kumirmari, and Marichjhapi by police firings. The CPIM congratulated its participant members on their successful operation at Marichjhapi
    ‚ě°¬†Jyoti Basu (Communist) issued prohibitory orders after the murder of 1700 Hindus and blocked the entry of journalists, activists or anyone who could have shed light on this news.
    ‚ě°¬†This is the worst state-sponsored massacre in the history of India where the government ordered cold-blooded murder of thousands of innocent, unarmed, harmless Hindu refugees just because they were turning out to be a burden.
    ‚ě°¬†Today marks the 38 years of India’s black day – a shameful event in India’s independent history when 1,700 innocent people were killed by the COMMUNIST PARTY Government and cadres of the party. This news could never come out in open. Hardly anyone in India knows about this massacre of Hindus. On this day, I pray to Maa Saraswati that may their souls rest in peace.
    ‚ě°¬†PS: Just in case, a coward, hypocrite secular dog questions this incident, refer the book named “The Hungry Tide” by Amitava Ghosh. Do not expect presstitute media will show you this truth.
    If you have slightest of sympathy and this story shook you, PLEASE SHARE IT. Every Indian MUST know the atrocities of Communists and Red Terrorism.


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