The two groups that can save BJP now

So it happened. The Congress has realized that its only future lies in being a small party that adds value to regional players. As the Congress declines, this will happen again and again and again. Most elections in India are won by a margin of around 5% of votes. Incidentally, the Congress happens to have 5% votes in nearly every state. Since the Congress can never rise again, this 5% can be rented out to whichever regional player is best placed to stop the BJP. Ironically, this places the Congress in a very comfortable position where everyone wants their 5%. This is what I wrote about recently in my post “Everybody loves a loser“.

The BJP, on the other hand, is a victim of its own success. It’s no use for BJP supporters to complain about a gang up against us. That’s what happens to winners. When the Congress was in pole position, the BJP tied up with regional leaders to undercut the Congress. That was a long time ago. Well, we are the pole now and they are going to join hands to stop us. The inevitable will always happen. That’s what makes it “inevitable”.

As I also explained in another post, the election in Uttar Pradesh is not lost for us, not by a long shot. Because there is somebody who everyone seems to be forgetting these days. That’s Mayawati and she sits on a substantial chunk of 19% votes in Uttar Pradesh. We all know she’s not going to win. The BJP’s chances now hinge on how much her own voters realize that she isn’t going to win. In fact, her own voters probably realize just as much that she won’t win. The question  is now whether they would like to give her one last chance purely for emotional reasons.

So that’s the first group : non-Jatav Dalits. Will they vote for BSP one last time?

I spoke before about “inevitables”. The way I see it, the non-Jatav Dalits (and eventually the Jatavs as well) are inevitably going to be BJP voters. Either today or tomorrow (in 2019). As Mayawati sinks, they will have to abandon ship. And the BJP is waiting with open arms.

I have said before that destruction of BSP is priority No. 1 for BJP in the polls of UP 2017. The Dalits of UP are inevitably going to vote with BJP one day, the question is how fast we can make it happen by getting BSP to sink for good. Mayawati’s downward trajectory is going to make her eventually one of BJP’s smaller allies. Like Paswan in Bihar and RPI in Maharashtra. And with Mayawati becoming a satellite of BJP, it will be curtains for the “Dalit politics”. It’s a wider historical arc of Hindu politics that cuts through the heart of the hypocritical “idea of India”. This is the arc we must traverse and the faster the better.

You might think I’m crazy. Maybe I am. But let me tell you Mayawati will be a small NDA ally one day.

Which is the second group that can save BJP in Uttar Pradesh? It’s the non-Yadav OBCs. These people are traditional BJP voters since the days of Kalyan Singh. From Uma Bharti to Keshav Maurya, the BJP has promoted many faces among them. If BJP can polarize these groups to the same extent as Yadavs have polarized for SP, the BJP is sure to win this election.

Now ordinarily I would say it’s too late to declare a CM candidate. But due to the strange circumstances of this election, where the SP could not resolve its leadership and alliance issues until 2 days before nominations close (for the 1st phase), it’s still not too late! The SP has just resolved its leadership puzzle. So can we. It’s still not too late to declare Keshav Maurya the CM candidate and win this election.

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19 thoughts on “The two groups that can save BJP now

  1. Declaring any CM candidate will make other contenders unhappy. Hence it is better for BJP to fight without any CM face, and if victorious, make one contender CM (either KeshavM or YogiA) and make all other contenders cabinet ministers in center..

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Agreed.I think it’s just better to continue on the decided path and fight under the name of Modi.The UP BJP team doesn’t really look stable enough of an entity to declare a CM candidate at this point.Of course we look pretty good in comparison to SP,but still i doubt any CM candidate can be declared without causing revolt from someone else.It’s better to accomodate everyone as much as possible now,and declare a CM later.We tend to forget that while BJP has lost Bihar,it has also won Maharashtra,Haryana without declaring any CM candidate.And the Delhi election was lost even though a Cm candidate was declared.So i think continuing as-is may be a better option right now

      Liked by 1 person

  2. I agree with the opinions above. Declaring a CM face this late may actually backfire on the BJP rather than help, especially if it happens to be Keshav Maurya (given Yogi A’s volatility and tendency to make inflammatory comments).

    Concerned about the SP-Cong alliance though, primarily because I am unsure how much the M vote will swing between them and BSP. If split equally, BJP will emerge a clean winner. I can’t wait for Dr Patil’s analysis (hopefully, it is along the lines of his November analysis and we can all breathe easy).

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    1. After a long hiatus, Dr. Praveen Patil is back on twitter, and says that there is a massive saffronization of Dalits in UP, and not just non-Jatavs. Glad to see his operation back on its feet (thanks to “Indian Hindu nationalists: he says). See this pair of tweets:

      Liked by 1 person

  3. There’s nothing crazy about this. It’s writing on the wall. Especially, since Mayavati has no successor.
    On a separate issue, Modi has denied visa to Bugti, the Baloch leader, because ties with Pakistan have ‘improved’. One way to ‘improve’ the ties further would be if he apologises to Pakistan on the Republic Day for the surgical strikes. If he also apologises for 2002, his ties with both Pakistani Pakis and Indian Pakis will further strengthen. And then, this fruitcake will be invincible, like the Italian.
    Most likely, BJP will split in the coming years. A second fruitcake as PM is not a joke. Maybe, VHP will start a Bhartiya Hindu Parishad.
    BJP today stands for nothing. Lol, may be Teresa Bhakti and Sharia Banking. At least the Shiv Sena has an unambiguous Hindu association.
    3 cheers to Modi cheergirls. Don’t feel bad about why our ‘ancestors’ lost. You will win. Teresa will do the miracle.

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    1. Yeah,they are so into Teresa Bhakti that they stirred the hornet’s nest by trying to scrutinize and stop foreign funding into NGO’s(which would have a considerable Christian infuence).It’s just a friendly gesture on part of the BJP to intensify their bhakti and not at all meant to stop Foreign(Christian) influence

      And i would encourage the Shiv Sena and VHP to depart from the NDA and try to form an alternative.We’ll see how much votes they will get.If they are successful,it will probably be a death knell for Commies.

      The RSS leader in Goa ,Velingkar is already trying this.If he fails,then you will realize that the supposed fruitcake is the only one who can win.If not,then their allies MGP will just indulge in their usual practice of grabbing money making ministries by giving support to the dominant party

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      1. Lol at we will see. U control exactly 1 vote!!
        Continue discovering greatness of Teresa and wisdom of Sharia Banking with Modi.
        A Hindu who celebrates a Christian conversion mafia is a fruitcake. Nothing else.

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        1. And how many votes does Shiv Sena and RSS control?

          Shiv Sena came fourth in the Maharashtra civil polls.The performance of Velingkar in Goa will be there for all to see.

          And continue making Ad-Hominem Attacks on people instead of making logical arguments

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          1. Attacks on ‘which’ people?
            Are you a fan of Teresa?
            Most likely no.
            What do you have to say On Modi’s stand on Teresa?

            I am not clear as to why are right wing Hindus supporting Modi?
            For demonetisation?
            How is that a Hindu issue?

            Is there anything Modi has done for Hindu cause? No.

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            1. You are talking to me,so i am obviously talking about attacks on me.

              And i did make my stand on Teresa clear in one of our earlier conversations,but let me restate it.i don;’t really care that much about teresa. She is long dead.She may have been rabid christian and “conversion agent” and whatever,but all that is long past now.She now is a “Charity icon”,for good or for bad.You can think whatever you want of her,you can speak whatever you want of her.But your desire for the PM to speak what you want on this topic is confounding,and your making it an issue to deride The govt for is just absurd.You just want to rake up non-issues and attack the Government.

              About your question “what has BJP done for Hindus”,let me give you some stuff:

              1.Attacking extremism properly. No major terrorist attack on a civilian target.Only 2016 was a bad year security-wise,and then too attacks only near Border areas.Appointing Doval as NSA.Acting against extremists like Zakir Nair and others.Giving more power to NIA

              2.Attacking foreign funding of NGO’s that subtly promote Abrahamic religions.Putting them on the backfoot.

              3.Stopping the commie infestation in Educational Institutions.Correcting the altered history in many Commie infested school content.Put more RW’ers in educational and academic posts.

              4.Stopping appeasement politics.Banning cow slaughter in states

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    2. Where do you get the information that Modi has denied a visa to Bugti? The latest news report from early December is that the IB has given its clearance, and that the clearance of RAW is awaited. If you have a link, please share. Thanks.

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      1. Agreed with Santouryuu and Prof Vidyasagar.
        AS, Right wingers are very quick to abandon the part they support, while our enemies support their party no matter what happens. Ms are very happy to see alliance between SP and congress. They have decided to vote for alliance at least in western UP. See the link.
        http://www.news18.com/news/politics/sp-congress-tie-up-has-western-up-muslims-happy-is-it-trouble-for-bjp-1339771.html
        While jats have decided to vote for any party except BJP. The reason, BJP did not help them in getting reservation.
        http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/jat-leaders-say-they-will-vote-against-bjp-in-up-punjab-polls-2871869/

        Well off course, the news is from MSM, which has been trying hard to project Akhilesh as winner. As CW said, BJP needs to work carefully. Before Sept, 2016, BJP was not in picture, and now, BJP is tightly in competition with SP.I hope we hindus especially from UP , should unite against all these secular forces. Before coming to any conclusion I will give Modi chance till 2019 and even after that assuming the improving eco system will take at least 10 years.. Right now, all anti national forces are trying to create a scenario similar to 2004. They are doing their best. Its up to hindus to reply them. If Ms can unite, why can’t we. Keep hope that, Modi will not sell country to anti nationals.

        CW, I also heard that, congress may actually contest on 50 to 60 seats with their candidates, while SP candidates will be contesting on behalf of congress for 40 seats of congress quota. If this is true, then BJP should be more careful.

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        1. Right wingers don’t desert. Their leaders turn out to be fraud. Modi would have been just another multi term CM like Chouhan, Raje, Mulayam, Mayawati if not for the Hindu image tagged to him in 2002(for which he didn’t do ANYTHING).
          Do you think 73 seats in UP had come if he had not gone to Varanasi saying Maa Ganga ne bulaya hai?
          Local level leaders of SP and BSP in UP had given tacit support to him in 2014 (including SP ministers). Not for the Gujarat Model!!
          He should have told in Varanasi in 2014 that he is a bhakt of conversion agents like Teresa. And that he is a wannabe Sharia Banker?
          I don’t see why Hindus should trust this man anymore.
          Why lie to people?

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        1. “Read it somewhere”? “Probably in the Toilet paper”? So you have NO CREDIBLE INFORMATION and are just ranting! Sorry pal, you need to do A LOT better if you wish to be taken seriously.

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  4. I have read that Mayawati is on destruction path. She openly ignored Dalits and went on to appease minority voters. Also wasn’t Congress considered a poison pill? That CPIM made alliance in (WB ?) and lost big so they refused to make alliance with Congress in Kerala? Or other way round? I forgot.

    Anyway, I have started to read about some rumbles in SP camp because SP candidates have been declared and now many of the candidates will be asked to make room for the Congress candidates. Can BJP take advantage of this uneasiness in SP camp?

    Liked by 1 person

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