So it happened. The Congress has realized that its only future lies in being a small party that adds value to regional players. As the Congress declines, this will happen again and again and again. Most elections in India are won by a margin of around 5% of votes. Incidentally, the Congress happens to have 5% votes in nearly every state. Since the Congress can never rise again, this 5% can be rented out to whichever regional player is best placed to stop the BJP. Ironically, this places the Congress in a very comfortable position where everyone wants their 5%. This is what I wrote about recently in my post “Everybody loves a loser“.
The BJP, on the other hand, is a victim of its own success. It’s no use for BJP supporters to complain about a gang up against us. That’s what happens to winners. When the Congress was in pole position, the BJP tied up with regional leaders to undercut the Congress. That was a long time ago. Well, we are the pole now and they are going to join hands to stop us. The inevitable will always happen. That’s what makes it “inevitable”.
As I also explained in another post, the election in Uttar Pradesh is not lost for us, not by a long shot. Because there is somebody who everyone seems to be forgetting these days. That’s Mayawati and she sits on a substantial chunk of 19% votes in Uttar Pradesh. We all know she’s not going to win. The BJP’s chances now hinge on how much her own voters realize that she isn’t going to win. In fact, her own voters probably realize just as much that she won’t win. The question is now whether they would like to give her one last chance purely for emotional reasons.
So that’s the first group : non-Jatav Dalits. Will they vote for BSP one last time?
I spoke before about “inevitables”. The way I see it, the non-Jatav Dalits (and eventually the Jatavs as well) are inevitably going to be BJP voters. Either today or tomorrow (in 2019). As Mayawati sinks, they will have to abandon ship. And the BJP is waiting with open arms.
I have said before that destruction of BSP is priority No. 1 for BJP in the polls of UP 2017. The Dalits of UP are inevitably going to vote with BJP one day, the question is how fast we can make it happen by getting BSP to sink for good. Mayawati’s downward trajectory is going to make her eventually one of BJP’s smaller allies. Like Paswan in Bihar and RPI in Maharashtra. And with Mayawati becoming a satellite of BJP, it will be curtains for the “Dalit politics”. It’s a wider historical arc of Hindu politics that cuts through the heart of the hypocritical “idea of India”. This is the arc we must traverse and the faster the better.
You might think I’m crazy. Maybe I am. But let me tell you Mayawati will be a small NDA ally one day.
Which is the second group that can save BJP in Uttar Pradesh? It’s the non-Yadav OBCs. These people are traditional BJP voters since the days of Kalyan Singh. From Uma Bharti to Keshav Maurya, the BJP has promoted many faces among them. If BJP can polarize these groups to the same extent as Yadavs have polarized for SP, the BJP is sure to win this election.
Now ordinarily I would say it’s too late to declare a CM candidate. But due to the strange circumstances of this election, where the SP could not resolve its leadership and alliance issues until 2 days before nominations close (for the 1st phase), it’s still not too late! The SP has just resolved its leadership puzzle. So can we. It’s still not too late to declare Keshav Maurya the CM candidate and win this election.