Is Yadav family drama sinking SP?

There was a time, not so long ago, when I was watching the Yadav family war with bated breath. I think most political animals across the country were. And then I stopped watching. I decided to tune out for the same reasons as I cannot bring myself to watch saas-bahu serials on television. It’s gotten too boring.

But sadly, the Yadav pariwar does still matter in Uttar Pradesh politics. And so it is that I force myself to read the headline once each day. I no longer ask for the details. You know, like asking: is Ramgopal Yadav suspended today or not? I don’t want to know who met who and who is trying to forge a compromise. I don’t want to know the body language and coded messages in the public pronouncements of Daddy Yadav, Son Yadav, Wife Yadav, Nephew Yadav and Uncle Yadav and/or Mr. Family Friend the honorary Yadav (you know who I am talking about!).

All I want to know is this : is it over yet?

As of 14:30 hrs IST on Jan 10, 2017, we know that it isn’t over.

The second thing I am watching is the clock. The cutoff is Jan 24, the last date for filing nominations for the first phase of Uttar Pradesh elections. If the SP can’t wrap up their family drama by Jan 24, their party is simply toast.

Here are the possible outcomes as I see them.

(A) Feud resolves quickly, SP+Cong alliance is formed: For the BJP, this is the worst possible outcome. Fortunately, it is also the most unlikely. If the feud has to end quickly, it means Akhilesh will be the obvious winner and the rest of the power brokers in the Yadav clan will get absolutely nothing. As such, it is hard to imagine what incentive the others might have in getting the feud resolved. If Akhilesh wins, it is clear that he won’t share. The others have a chance only if Akhilesh sinks in this election.

On the alliance front with Congress, again Pappu is proving to be BJP’s best player. It is almost surreal, but Pappu’s vacation might cost his party the election. He has just come back from a 10 day sight seeing trip (or worse…lol) from somewhere in the world and it is believed that in 5 days he will leave for an extended trip to China for some silly excuse of a conference. This leaves Akhilesh Yadav a 5 day window to resolve his party feud and seal the alliance with Congress. Tick tock. Tick tock.

(B) Feud drags on indefinitely: Easy win for BJP in this scenario. The SP workers will be busy interpreting the day to day whims and fancies of their leaders. No clarity on any issue, including candidates. When will Akhilesh Yadav campaign and when will the workers hit the ground? Worse, the nervous M vote will totally splinter in this scenario with the aim of stopping BJP somehow. This will reduce the entire election to a question of who will be No. 2: BSP or SP?

(C) Samajwadi Party splits : In this scenario, there is no doubt that Akhilesh Yadav will ally with Congress. But then begins the near hopeless task of formalizing the split. First they will need a new symbol or fight Mulayam for the old one. But the symbol is the least of their problems. The MSY faction probably has their loyalists planted at every level, waiting to sabotage Akhilesh. The Chief Minister will have to examine his party with a fine toothed comb, determine the loyalty of each office bearer and name hundreds of new ones. The state of Uttar Pradesh is simply massive. With every new appointment that the CM announces in his party, he will have to find a way to manage 5 others who were eyeing the exact same position. Can any human being accomplish this task within 15 days or less?

The comparison with the Bihar mahagathbandhan fails totally in this scenario. Lalu, Nitish and Congress sealed their alliance months in advance and campaigned in lock step for 2 months before the election. Hardly any similarity with the total chaos that will follow a party split in Uttar Pradesh. BJP winning in this case as well.

(D) SP stays united, Mulayam stays president, no alliance with Congress: In my opinion, this is the most likely thing to happen. Because it has something for every stakeholder:

Akhilesh gets to be CM candidate, stays as face of the party for the election. He doesn’t have to reorganize the entire party. The Shivpal faction gets to keep a toe in the door, because Mulayam remains party president. It’s just way too messy to split the party. Akhilesh knows he can’t afford it. The price that Mulayam will extract for keeping the party united is that Akhilesh has to drop the alliance with Congress. 

And the BJP wins in this case as well. Only a Congress alliance with a united SP can save the opposition now.

As you can see, I am still working to the theory that Amit Shah and Mulayam have a deal. Let’s see: Shah wants to win UP and the only way Mulayam can keep his hold on the party is if the SP loses UP. Sounds like a perfect confluence of interests to me.

If you don’t believe me, here are two sinister creatures from the secular snake pit who have both written blogs on NDTV (where else!) in the last few days complaining about Amit Shah. First, here is Swati Chaturvedi (Brinjal) :

untitled

And here’s the other creep…the one and only Rana Ayyub.

untitled

I can sense the frustration. Why aren’t the “secular forces” uniting to keep big bad Modi away like these creeps so desperately want? Sorry seculars, it is not Amit Shah’s fault that the beloved secular leaders you have placed your bets on are so cheap and ready to do deals. You shouldn’t have bet on such cheap and compromised “leaders”. Right now, Nitish Kumar is letting you down…I know. And Mulayam Singh Yadav is letting you down too. Wait and watch…Akhilesh Yadav …the apple of your eye…will let you down one day as well. Mark my words 🙂

Advertisements

22 thoughts on “Is Yadav family drama sinking SP?

  1. finally history also started letting ‘them’ down.. which is not yet clearly visible for these so called ‘intellectuals’… good

    Like

  2. Even I see Option D as the most likely scenario but am not completely ruling out Option A either…there are indications that RaGa may cut his China trip and, as useless as the Congress is on its own, it still has the ability to ruin the math in any state by creating an alliance. The roots run deep and it will be 20-30 years (with at least 10 of those from Modi) to weed them out.

    Like

    1. Well…3 days have passed and it seems RG has canceled his China trip. As you say, Congress is in a position to stop BJP in several states by becoming junior alliance partner. They did it in Bihar.

      Like

  3. CW your analysis is spot on as always. The secular Break India forces are at work as well. I am referring to the BSF video going viral with regards to food being served. BJP announces using successful Surgical Strike as a poll point and immediately we have a disgruntled BSF jawan making a video and posting it online. I am not ready to believe this as a mere coincidence as far as timing is concerned.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. While understanding the concept of sharing power in the larger interest of core, long term civilizational intersts, having seen it successfully implemented in most advanced administrations in the present day world and in ancient India, I am skeptical that may be a case in Bihar or now in UP. That leaves it to be true feud or cheap nautanki. I bet on cheap nautanki. Very timely, nautanki will end, Akhilesh will be declared winner and stronger in the hope of fooling Upians to forget and sacrifice their own self interest serving like slaves a family which is itself selfish, incompetent, corrupt and foolish and serving the foreign interests.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. CW – sorry for an off-topic comment but it seems AAP said Kejriwal could be the CM candidate for Punjab. Reminded me of your blog from a while back (with reference to Kejri’s insecurities of letting Sidhu – or anyone else – run a full state as a CM and eventually usurping him in AAP). You were bang-on…and, if indeed true, he should be given a thrashing that he will never forget…

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Whether the Congress aligns with SP or no, as long as BSP is there to split Muslim votes, I see advantage BJP. The question is, as in Bihar Mahagath Bandhan, Congress party accepted puny role, will Congress party accept such puny role in UP too?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. What standing does the Congress have anymore? IMO, they will take any crumbs thrown at them. Unless the Congress dramatically revamps itself (which is as likely as Tendulkar playing in the 2019 WC), a Congress-mukt bharat is inevitable.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. This is what I wrote in my recent post about everybody loving a loser. Right now Congress has become so small that everyone wants to ally with them and get that boost of 5-6% vote extra.

        Like

  7. This was an interesting ‘what-if’ analysis which provided a good read. Just like CW Ji, most of us, who are interested in politics and who (kind of) understand politics of UP, are now bored of this Yaduvansh circus.

    On the other hand, I feel that we are dismissing Behenji’s case too early. Her style and promises may be stale, but she IS a formidable force in UP. In fact, she has been able to keep her house in order (unlike SP); she has also been able to quickly and systematically proceed on her electoral preparations (e.g. announcing list of candidates). Most of her foot soldiers are small but loyal and strong political forces in rural areas (esp. western UP).

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s