Well, the state of Tamil Nadu is in a precarious situation. On the one hand, there is a party with a clear majority. What is more, they have a tsunami of sympathy backing them. I wonder how many seats the AIADMK would win if elections were held today? 1991 type verdict? Even bigger? Tamil friends please comment and let me know what you think.
And yet, the ruling party has every reason to be nervous. And sadly, the right wing all across India needs to fear for their future.
By design, the AIADMK never had a back up plan. No Plan B. No second rung of leadership. The very existence of the party was based on the assumption that Amma is eternal. Amma was only 68 … the AIADMK workers never expected such a calamity. Honestly, neither did I. Even though she had spent over 60 days in the hospital, I was actually quite confident that she would recover and come back to take charge of the state. This was just way too sudden.
And now we have an orphaned party at the helm of a very important state. Scary.
The DMK knows that it has no chance right now. But that’s ok. Because there is no election coming anyway. The election is more than four and a half years away. That is ample time for Jayalalitha’s aides to fight bitterly among themselves for succession, to let governance go to the dogs and for the public sympathy to evaporate. This is not good news at all. If we stick to the classical rules of politics, AIADMK is getting wiped out in the 2021 polls in Tamil Nadu… 1996 style. And people of Tamil Nadu are not known for pulling their punches when punishing a government. Jayalalitha herself lost from the Bargur seat in 1996.
Worse, the wipeout for AIADMK may come in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Bad news again, considering that if BJP fell short of 272 in 2019, the first phone call would definitely have gone out to Amma. The second call would have gone to BJD ….and increasingly I think the third call would have gone to Hyderabad.
Fortunately, in this time of churning, our beloved Rahul Gandhi never fails to give us a morale booster.
He is our lucky charm, isn’t he? Whenever we are under a cloud, he never fails to provide a silver lining.
Well that big smile of his …which has gone viral in Tamil Nadu … made doubly sure that Congress won’t be getting a foot in the door anytime soon. Thanks Rahul, you are a natural calamity for your party.
It is time for the BJP to step in amid the churning. The Prime Minister, who has massive goodwill everywhere in the country, has to give his clear blessing to the AIADMK. And play mediator between Jayalalitha’s warring aides. The governance in Tamil Nadu cannot be allowed to collapse.
Honestly, Jayalalitha’s aides are quite simply lesser mortals, without real leadership temperament. I just don’t think Paneerselvam or Thambidurai or Sasikala have what it takes to run a state the size of Tamil Nadu. Jayalalitha taught them to follow, not to lead. We need a strong leader who can keep these aides from drowning governance in the state due to quarrels that are guaranteed to begin in a few days. I think the Prime Minister is perfectly suited for this role. Most importantly, the people of the state need to be assured that their state government has not become rudderless … and that the Center stands firmly behind the AIADMK government.
Honestly, no one else but Modi can do it. Any other BJP leader trying this would face a wall of mistrust from the people of the state. Only Modi has the deep seated goodwill and credibility to pull it off without seeming like he is undermining the regional aspirations of the people of Tamil Nadu.
At the same time, the process must begin for harmonizing the AIADMK with the BJP ecosystem. This is really a repeat of what happened to the AGP in Assam. A slow process beginning with the absorption of low level cadres, respecting the uniqueness of Tamil politics while placing it within the larger national agenda of the RSS. We must remember that a LOT of poison has been pumped into Tamil Nadu by the so called “Dravidian politics” based on false “two race theories” created by the British and fanned by the idea of India brigade. Jayalalitha, a Hindu who never appeared in public without a mark on her forehead, played a huge role herself in bending that flow. It’s time to take it to the logical conclusion.