Was demonitization really planned for Nov 8?

Let me start today with an exclusive pic of Rajdeep Sardesai getting ready for his interview with Madam ji.

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Ok, so I got a lot of flak in the comments yesterday from all of you because I went off on a libertarian tangent about “legal tender” and voluntary exchanges 🙂 🙂

No problem. I guess I will have to keep my views on money to myself. I’ve been called an idiot several times before whenever I start talking about alternative currencies and advocating the abolition of central banks, etc, etc 🙂

On the good side, my blog got 1000 views yesterday, so that’s nice…

But there was something else in the comments that I found really exciting. Someone indicated that the move was initially planned for Nov 18 or so, but the date had to be advanced because the news about notes was beginning to leak out. I have been hearing many such rumors and for a while I was even believing them. Of course we will never know for exactly sure, but I have finally convinced myself that Nov 8 was indeed the day on which the Prime Minister planned the announcement. You may have an alternative hypothesis, but here are my reasons.

Let’s try to see what date of the month would be ideal for such an announcement. For daily wage laborers or weekly wage laborers, any day of any week would be an inconvenience, so we will unfortunately have to leave them out. Let us consider people who get paid and settle bills etc at the end of each month.

You can’t do the announcement in the first week of a month, because you have to give people some time to pay their bills after they got their money somewhere between 30 Oct and Nov 2.

So, the government surely couldn’t have done it before Nov 7.

Of course, once the announcement is made, there is going to be a week of panic, then one week of chaos and finally a third week in which things start getting better. By doing it on Nov 8, the govt was giving itself 3 full weeks before the end of the month when people start getting their own bills settled, after which they withdraw money to settle their own bills.

You may have a different guess, but I think 8th of the month…the banks closed on the 9th…so everything really began on the 10th is the best choice that could have been made. If there is a different logic, I would love to hear it.

 

For me, the more fun question is why November? Yes, it can’t be December or January because those are too cold, especially in the north and of course you can’t do it during the brutal summer months. Why not October? Maybe because its reaping season…I don’t really know.

But what I am really wondering is whether this had something to do with the RBI governor. Was Raghuram Rajan aware of this? Did Modi wait for Urjit Patel to take charge before the RBI started printing the notes? There is substantial credence to this idea because all the notes bear the signature of Urjit Patel. Others have told me that this does not mean anything, because the printing of the signature is just the last part of the process. Maybe. I don’t really know about the process of printing currency. But I would be surprised if the raw materials and all took 4 months to assemble, while the actual printing happened in 2 months.

What do you folks think?

I am actually in a great mood today, so I will end my post with some quick jabs at some of our great thought leaders of today.

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Actually Rohan, it’s not a normal. It is barely 15 days old and will disappear within the next 10 days, probably much before that. I’ll tell you what IS normal. “Normal” is for ordinary citizens to be bribing corrupt thieves to get their completely legitimate rights. It’s been happening for nearly 70 years. But you rarely complain about that…precisely because it had become the “normal”.

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Mr. M K Venu, I hope that you have heard about the bypoll results today, where people spoke from Madhya Pradesh to Assam and as far as Arunachal. Perhaps you are under the illusion that you are a journalist?

Actually, no way. There is no way you could be THAT stupid. You know exactly what you are and you know that you are surely no journalist.

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This tweet from Rohini Singh is pure gold. Though I am not sure she knows exactly just how amazingly correct she really is… LOL

And finally:

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Very well put, Marya! Here is an exclusive pic of Rajdeep giving himself and all of us that rare glimpse.

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15 thoughts on “Was demonitization really planned for Nov 8?

  1. CW The objective of yesterday’s comment was intended to correct the misconception. It was not intended to criticize your free thinking. Definitely not to call you an Idiot. We would welcome your posts on alternative currencies. I guess it is for everybody’s benefit if errors are identified it is highlighted

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  2. Friends,

    A bit off-topic but it appears that dynasty boot-licker Ramachandra Guha has
    jumped ship; see here:

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/editorials/the-congress-party-past-and-present/story-94DicthSq1oEJmG8knlm0L.html

    Perhaps he was getting paid in old 500 and 1,000 Rupee notes which have suddenly become worthless.

    As for the boxer’s interview with the Mafiosi, no one seems to have watched it other than the Lutyens crowd.

    To me the more interesting news is that Rahul Shivshankar has moved from News-X to Times Now. Rahul (despite his name, for which he must now be cursing his parents) is a solid interviewer, but does not hector or browbeat the interviewee unlike Arnab. In fact my wife prefers him to Arnabl. Rahul could actually do a great job, if he is allowed to by Vineet Jain, by having fewer panelists instead of a cast of dozens, and actually letting them speak. In any case I would expect him to continue the pro-India stance adopted by Arnab, minus the histrionics. With Zee News starting an English channel and Arnab starting a news channel (perhaps the same one?), and Nws-X continuing to be pro-India, the number of pro-India channels will only increase.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Wonder how this street thug actually feels when he has to do the boot licking of the waitress!….I guess they are so thick skinned that self respect etc has been thrown out of the window! …only money matters.

    Whatever the date and timing of the announcement of demonetization everybody was caught unawares that itself is a remarkable feat for such a massive country!….full credit to PM N Modi!

    Liked by 1 person

  4. I second your November 8 theory with my two cent theory. The Modi Sarkar wanted to spread this news (Demonetization), far and wide. That is why they cancelled November 9 ban on NDTV !! How is that for a theory??

    Ever since pollsters ate crows pie during American election, it has become a fashion to doubt poll number claiming people deliberately mis-lead pollsters !! If at all, in this case of demonetization, 95 percent or 87 percent (latest Huffington Post) show support, I would say few more percentage of people actually supported this measure but mis-lead pollsters.

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    1. In reality in this case it would be opposite. Many have lost money and oppose the move. But they want to publicly oppose as they will be exposed as corrupt and hoarding black money.
      So, actual support for this movie may be less (probably much less).
      Except pvt sector salaried employees and the poorest of the poor everyone deals in black money. They have all lost money. Quantities may vary.
      But I am still happy. Let them suffer. But the move may boomerang on BJP.

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  5. I actually did not see the SaGa interview (not that I wanted to) because I wasn’t aware of it so interview of the decade is stretching it a bit. Even I was initially of the opinion that maybe the Modi Govt had to prepone the announcement because of the fear of a leak but now I am firmly of the viewpoint that he intended it to be Nov 8. Let’s also keep in mind that with the weekends, Nov 9/14 holiday in some parts of the country, it gave a good 5-day window to the banks to clear the initial surge.

    I have been talking nonstop to my parents back in Gujarat and seems the situation and queues are very much under control now. Would love somebody else’s opinion from other parts of the country, esp rural India, on what the ground situation is like. I fully believe that the common man is with Modi on this initiative but their patience will start wearing thin eventually if last mile coverage is not taken care of.

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    1. One of my former Ph.D. students is from a village near Sultanpur, UP, where there wasn’t even electricity until this guy was half-way through his Ph.D. He tells me that people in his village are NOT, repeat NOT, facing unmanageable problems and that everyone supports demonetization. My wife found out to her surprise that ALL of our servants had the zero-balance accounts, but no one was using them. Now she’s paying them by cheque. Of course that’s in Hyderabad. So both ends of the spectrum are happy, apparently.

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      1. I second that sir.

        My parents live in a small and sleepy cantonment town in Uttarakhand. First 5-6 days were difficult (due to many people wanting to deposit/exchange demonetized notes), but now inconvenience appears to be fading away gradually. On a hindsight, I think they were able to sail through easily since they do not spend mindlessly and live a simple life.

        A painful observation that I made was at the petrol pumps/bunks of Bangalore. The pump operators near my place (north Bangalore) are not accepting demonetized notes but are giving old notes when they tender change to whosoever has come to fill-up.

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  6. Rohini Singh’s tweet is so funny. She is trying to say one thing, but thanks to the quirks of English the truth came out the other way. LoL.

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  7. Your reasoning behind date and month are all solid. The US elections, which kept the media busy for the week before and specifically that day, clinched it. Ban of NDTV was a facade.

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  8. Please see this series of tweets on the outcome of various bye-polls.

    Clearly the BJP is making HUGE gains, and Congress is being decimated. In the Barjala Assembly Segment of Tripura, the Congress vote share went from 49% to 3%. No, that is NOT a misprint! In WB BJP has taken over second place from the CPM.

    So I guess that should put to rest the thought that the people in the country side are against demonetization.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. My bhabhi is working in a Wells Fargo bank in San Jose California. She informed that during last one and half weeks, so many Indians have visited their Safe Deposit Lockers. Any guess what they were storing in those lockers?

    Like

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