Break off Balochistan, sort of…

Yet again! This time 17 jawans lost in Uri. And this calls for a response. Let’s quickly look at the options India has on the table.

First, we could go to war. This seems hard and it would probably take a massive toll on the Indian economy. As far as I can remember, it has never happened in history that two nuclear armed nations have declared war on each other. We know Pakistanis love to die and get their 72 virgins, but we have something to live for. So, not this option.

Secondly, we could go for the so called “surgical strikes” inside enemy territory. I highly doubt we have the capabilities to carry this out. If my memory is not failing me about the Osama bin Laden operation, the United States used helicopters so advanced that their existence was unknown till the day the operation was announced to the world. Worse, one of those helicopters failed to make it out of Pakistan safely and crashed. Pakistanis claim they shot it down and we will never know which is the correct version. All we know is that the marines activated a self destruct mechanism of some sort before the advanced helicopter went down and the US was so anxious about protecting the technology that it asked Pakistan to return the wreckage of the fallen craft. If this is the level of equipment needed for such operations, it’s safe to assume we don’t have access to toys like these.

Not to mention that surgical strikes inside Pakistan would cause full scale war anyway. Not to mention that China could go with Pakistan, as they likely will, especially if they have an excuse to point to India as the conspicuous aggressor.

Thirdly, we could do nothing. We have tried this strategy for decades and I don’t think we are happy with the results.

But we have a fourth option. We bleed them like they bleed us. India should arm Baloch milita to carry out similar strikes on Paki military assets. Is that like sponsoring terrorism? Perhaps. Probably. But then, “sponsor” of terrorism is a label that really depends on your strength in the international arena. There are likely a dozen countries in the world right now where the CIA is arming militia of various sorts and sizes, but no one can dare to call the US a “state sponsor of terror”. Pakistan will squirm and scream, but so what. Our credibility and strength is far more than theirs. We are vital to US interests in Asia. As long as that continues and we maintain some plausible deniability, no one will be able to throw muck at India.

So far, India has taken one big step by openly giving diplomatic support to Balochistan. This attack in Uri is doubtless a warning, telling us to back off. But, that’s just a clue that we are on the right track. Like Ajit Doval says, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities are far greater than our own. ISIS guys killed 3 Pakistani soldiers in Peshawar just today. The new diplomatic support to Balochistan must now be upgraded to (covert) military support to Baloch liberation militia.

Afghanistan is a key aspect of this strategy. Right now, there seems to be a strong anti-Pakistan sentiment sweeping Afghanistan, or at least its ruling classes. India must get Afghanistan to seal their borders with Pakistan, pushing all the unemployed jihadis into Pakistan. Our aim must be to get Pakistan embroiled with Taliban on one part of its western frontier and with Balochi militia in the other part of its frontier.

Is this strategy fraught with danger? Yes! Can anyone guarantee that the militia we sponsor today will not turn around and attack us tomorrow? No! But tell me, does anyone see any other option?

I think part of the strategy is the realization that this war will continue for our generation and perhaps several generations to come. One of my favorite bloggers is a guy who calls himself “Greatbong” and he had this to say about terrorism:

“The Third World War is a war without end, and like diabetes and genital herpes it cannot be cured but only controlled, and that too at great personal sacrifice, like eating vegetables or, in this case, through restrictions on civil liberties.”

(https://greatbong.net/2016/07/04/world-war-three/)

In fact, the Israelis have the same approach. They call it “cutting the grass”. Like grass, the crazy jihadis will always keep growing back. So, you keep cutting the grass, but accept the fact that the grass will always be there.  Israel has the added advantage that its immediate enemies are not nuclear armed. A pity we don’t have that but it is what it is.

Folks, I just checked. Pakistan has 180 million people. They are not going anywhere. We have to embroil Pakistan in a bloody civil war. And we have to fan the flames inside Pakistan so that 100 Pakistanis die for every 1 Indian killed by terrorism. But it is important to accept the fact that even such a grim ratio will not make Pakistan stop. Remember that I said in a recent post that the jihadis live to die?

It’s time to break Pakistan into pieces again. Not a clean break like Bangladesh splitting away. That’s why I called this post “Break off Balochistan, sort of“. We need a messy break where Balochistan declares independence and India gives them diplomatic recognition.  And let Pakistan get into an endless war of attrition with militia for territory in Balochistan. If someone has a better idea, I would LOVE to hear it.

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26 thoughts on “Break off Balochistan, sort of…

  1. Modi govt need not go for any military action. Simply strengthen our boarders with Pak, control J&K, declare Pak as terror state and call off all diplomatic ties, expel their diplomats, call off ours in Pak, BUT most importantly control the Pak supporting journalists/liberals in India. This is more than sufficient for the time being. Every thing else will fall in place gradually.

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    1. What ,if Parvez Musharraf ex. Pak prez gets killed by ”someone” in London as retribution of Kargil war , will it send message ?

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  2. CW…What an idea, Sirjee!!!

    Yes GOI has to do something…..your idea seems to be excellent!……end result as you said split the bloody country into pieces!!….no more Pakistan!!!

    How long can our country tolerate these a!@# h@#$ come into our land and kill our soldiers….utter waste of human life!!

    Our politicians including PM should stop their stupid statements(always similar dumb
    statements) !…..Always on the defensive …why? Why can’t they show they have balls of steel!….they should remember they are representing such a huge country with immense resources!

    Hope the GOI has taken steps to have a strong ‘deep assets’,which was dismantled by ex PM I K Gujral!

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  3. It is Sindh and not Baluchistan.
    Baloch are a minority in Baluchistan. Population is too less.
    Ground support is needed in Sindh, and/or Baluchistan.
    Baluch rebels collaborate with Sindh rebels.

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  4. Gr8 idea cw. I think Pakistan will go bankrupt in next 15 to 20 years. India will be growing, while after at least 15 years, Pakistan will have to spend at least more than 70 % of its budget on weapons. No need to get scared from their nuclear weapons. If usa is with india,then there are high chances that, india with help of usa and other countries can denuclearize Pakistan. There is too much pressure on modi. Modi is too pressurized to punish pak. Best way as of now will be break all relations with pak.give full control to army. Let them do whatever they want even with those kasmiris, who enjoy on India taxpayers money.First of all get rid of burqa and her gang who is openly supporting enemy.

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    1. Why can’t we respond like what israel used to do to palestine. Go into their territory and inflict damage. You don’t have to make 56 inch statements. Just do it across the LOC. Inflict severe damage on their assets and personnel. We have had several such firing in the past without escalating into a war. It is not that we have to wait for Pakistan to start firing in LOC. Let Pakistan be aware that they will face this kind of damages when they go for terrorist attacks. I am not saying that your suggestion need not be pursued but that is long term. I am sure Pakistan will not go for nuclear option for LOC firing. We need to get out of the evidence documentation syndrome and show some b**ls

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      1. We can’t bcoz we are not israel. we need to have guts like them, which we do not have frankly. I mean we do not have any political willingness to do it. Israel is surrounded by arab nations, but they do not have nuclear bombs. The palestinians can only fight with stones against israel, while we have to deal with Pakistan. Even kashmiris are more aggressive against our army then these Palestinians.They have mastery in stone pelting.
        I expected today that, Modi will announce something like breaking all relations with pakistan, but was disappointed. He will now take consensus of all parties for any decision as per media. Yes, he will request for consensus of these secular parties who always support Pakistan. If we cant go for strikes then at least PM should stop all relations with Pak. Stop all trade, send all pakis to hell, i mean in pakistan. Cut all ties. If Pak goes to UN, we need to tell this bloody and useless UN not to interfere.

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        1. The govt. should stop all diplomatic ties with immediate effect. Obviously, “bleeding heart” liberals, pseudo-seculars and liberal activists will scream (that’s what they always do). However, this time the home ministry should make an announcement: those who want friendship with Pakistan, please go ahead and visit Pakistan, but they will find our doors forever shut behind them.

          Such an announcement will definitely explode on the sickular landscape like Hiroshima, but it’s time has come.

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        2. It’s not really that we don’t have guts like Israel. Israel wouldnt have fired either if its neighbors had nukes. The real mistake is that we allowed Pakistan to go nuclear (was it 1987?) Once they had the nukes…

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      2. No we just cant do what Israel does. Israel’s neighbors are not nuclear. Israel makes damn sure of that. They blew up Syria’s nascent nuclear facility to bits in 2007. Once Pakistan got the nuclear bomb, essentially they became immune from attack by pretty much anyone.

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    2. That’s how Reagan defeated the USSR. Ultimately they did it without a single shot. With Pakistan our added problem is the terrorism. We have to arm the Baloch. America did it in Afghanistan to beat them Russians. Why not us?

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  5. CW Blood boils when you see this twitter message of Malini P – Time to remember that when people sign up to be soldiers and kill the enemy, they offer to risk their lives

    I don’t know how long we need to tolerate such provocation

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  6. Dear Chaiwallah,

    The following are easy to implement if Modi has the guts (but that is a very BIG IF):

    1. Recall Indian High Commissioner from Pakistan.
    2. Expel Pakistan High Commissioner.
    3. Repeal the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan; they are yet to give us MFN status.
    4. Unilaterally abrogate the Indus river treaty.

    Items 1 through 3 would not violate any international norms. Item 4 would probably send the Pakis running to the International Court of Justice or whatever. By the time the judgement comes through, Pakistan would have been parched dry for a few years, and the impact on their food security would be huge. Even if we turn the taps back on after a few years they will get the message.

    For good measure, ban travel by Indian citizens to Pakistan without the prior approval of GoI. Anyone travelling without permission would be denied re-entry into India. This last one might be tricky. I wouldn’t know all the ramifications. Perhaps others would know.

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  7. I am glad CW you wrote this blog. I was tired of opposition party and leftist media egging up Modi Sarkar to attack Pakistan. It is repeat of plane hijacked incident during Bajpayee government. Congress and other opposition parties all stood strong with the families of the plane passengers to exert pressure on Bajpayee government to give in to the hijackers’ demand. Now that most Indians have forgotten, Congress party blames Bajpayee government just like Digvijay Singh today blamed Bajpayee for letting go Mazoor.

    We should remember that we are not living in India of Indira Gandhi’s time. When she decided to participate in Bangladesh war, our entire country was behind her. Not so today. The moment Mr. Modi decides to attack Pakistan, all opposition parties and leftist media will start second guessing and criticizing government and Indian army hurting their morale. They will start counting each and every Jawan that dies and will show how much they care for Jawan’s life.

    We RW must not fall for this trap again. Remember if there was ever a need to attack Pakistan, it was after 26-11 attacks. Instead of attacking Pakistan, UPA government succeeded in diverting nation’s attention towards Saffron Terrorism.

    My suggestion is, while the iron is hot, take care of separatists as they support the terrorists from Pakistan and also must be guiding them. Otherwise how terrorists can find their way to sensitive position?

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    1. I think the biggest difference is that Pakistan is now a nuclear country. Till now in history no nuclear armed nation has dared to declare war on another. The only choice is now to bleed Pakistan like they bleed us.

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