Some days ago, during Mayawati’s massive rally at Azamgarh, Dr. Praveen Patil tweeted this:
At that time, I was skeptical. After all, Mayawati’s rallies had drawn huge crowds and one could see in them the reflection of Modi’s own “shock and awe” tactics from 2014, where boisterous crowds beginning with Kanpur broke the morale of his enemies.
But now, with BOTH CSDS and CVoter showing Mayawati slipping into third position, I am happy to change my view. No, really, Mayawati is losing badly. Here are the results of CVoter’s opinion poll released yesterday.
So, BJP has made its way to No.1 with 27.79%, though it’s really tied with SP at 27.51%. Mayawati is at 25.44%! What is remarkable is that she is losing vote share compared to 2012, even though you could call her the “principal anti-incumbent”.
Keep in mind that Yashwant Desmukh’s CVoter has a scintillating record of getting vote shares right. On conversion of votes to seats, CVoter has a poor record and Yashwant admits himself that he is a “conservative pollster” when it comes to vote-seat conversion. So, we wont really talk about Yashwant’s seat projections, which as always show a close race. But for the record, here are the projections:
For Mayawati, or should I say for “Deviji” Mayawati, the fall is spectacular. Who could have thought that Mayawati would be languishing at #3?
Here is the question now : did the Lutyens mafia lead Mayawati down the path of ruin? Because the Dalit-Muslim axis that she is trying to put together is simply going nowhere. The Dalit-Muslim electoral axis is the fondest dream of every anti-Hindu liberal and a lot of things were cooked up and selectively blown out of proportion from Gujarat to Telangana in the quest for a Dalit-Muslim alliance.
Tough luck, liberals. Dalits are Hindus and will remain Hindus. And thanks for taking Mayawati down with you.
There are now at least FOUR solid reasons why Muslims simply won’t go with BSP:
(1) BJP is VERY seriously in contention to win Lucknow, possibly even the favorite to win. The last thing that Muslims want now is division of their votes.
(2) SP is clearly ahead of BSP and now there is no reason for Muslims to back the losing “secular” party.
(3) SP has deep roots in the Muslim community. Basically every Imam and ever Muezzin in Uttar Pradesh is affiliated to the SP. So is every Madrasaa.
(4) In event of a hung assembly, there is a very real possibility of BSP actually joining hands with BJP.
In short, with BJP at the gates of Lucknow, why would Muslims desert their traditional party and go for a weaker leader who may well dump them tomorrow to join hands with BJP? Simply makes no sense. I cannot even think of a single reason for a Muslim to vote for BSP now.
If you look at the caste vote matrix, things are even worse for BSP:
Btw, in case you are wondering who are the 3% of Muslims voting for BJP, those are the Shia Muslims, most of whom are just as terrified of ISIS culture as we are.
Okay, so now look at those Dalit numbers: BJP 26% and BSP 44%! And BSP is supposed to be the party of Dalits! And BSP is leading by just 18% among them!
Just for comparison, look at Brahmins. BJP at 54% is as much as 40% ahead of the next claimant in the category, i.e, SP.
Look at Muslims. The top claimant is SP at 50% which is 28% ahead of the next best, i.e., BSP at 22%!
So, the BSP is performing miserably at consolidating its core voters. Add to this the fact that Mayawati probably has well over 60% among her Dalit Jatav voters, which means that BJP is probably sitting at over 40% among non-Jatav Dalits.
Lets come to OBCs. Here SP has 23% and BJP has 39%, which gives a 16% lead. But then OBCs include Yadavs, the core of Mulayam’s votes. Which means that BJP would have a massive lead among non-Yadav OBCs in order to have this overall lead of 16%.
This much is clear: BJP has successfully consolidated its two main planks: Upper castes and non-Yadav OBCs. In fact, CVoter put on twitter the figure for Upper caste Hindus and here are the numbers:
Totally consolidated in BJP’s favor. A pity that they don’t seem to have given the figure for non-Yadav OBCs. As I mentioned, BJP must be doing really well among non-Jatav Dalits to get 26% among Dalits overall. And here are some indications:
Look at those numbers for Mallah and Nishad voters, who would probably be classified as “Mahadalits” in Bihar. BJP as number one choice of Nishad voters…for those with some familiarity with caste voting in the North, it’s almost unbelievable that a day like this would come when BJP would be first choice of Nishads and Mallahs.
Now, where is the slippage? Look here:
Sure, BJP still leads the pack among Jats and Gujjars. But BJP’s numbers among Jats in 2014 were probably over 70%. Look how many Jat votes have leaked to “others”, clearly meaning Ajit Singh’s RLD. Now, can anyone rule out an alliance between SP and RLD? Of course not. If this happens, BJP’s goose is cooked in Western Uttar Pradesh. And by the way, what is with as many as 21% of Gujjar voters going to Congress? I think this is the only community in which Congress is getting more than 15%. There must be some local factor at play that we are not aware of.
So, what is this “electoral crime” I have been talking about? Look no further:
When it comes to the leadership stakes, I had thought BJP is pretty much out of the race because it has not projected a face. But here is the BJP, sitting just 2% behind Mayawati. Even without a face, BJP is in the leadership race. We have to recognize that this is a rare phenomenon. For obvious reasons, parties without a face usually fare miserably in opinion polls on the question of “Who would you like as CM?” Naturally, if you don’t offer anyone, what do you expect the people to pick?
But a 26% leadership choice for BJP, just 2% behind Mayawati, shows that a LOT of people in Uttar Pradesh really want to give the party a chance this time. They have seen SP and BSP governing by turn and now the saffron heartland wants BJP back. All that BJP needs now is a face on which to project the positivity of the voters.
Do it Amit Shah. Keshav Maurya is the only real choice right now. Make the decision and sweep the election. Otherwise, there is no doubt in my mind that this is an electoral crime.