Considering that ABP News survey from yesterday was done by CSDS, by far the most respected survey agency, we have to take these predictions seriously.
Mayawati at No. 3? Hmmmm… and we had grown used to thinking that she is the main challenger. Let’s see the story in vote shares:
The surprise is that SP has suddenly jumped from being No.3 to No. 1! So, what gives the SP this 3% advantage. The real problem is here:
With no CM candidate declared for the BJP campaign, there is no face to present to the voter. Elections in India have become more and more presidential. Narendra Modi himself is the biggest beneficiary of this transformation. And only heaven knows when Modi-Shah will understand that the same applies to state elections.
Give us a face Amit Shah and watch that 3% gap with SP disappear.
Nevertheless, there are a lot of interesting takeaways from the ABP news poll.
(1) First, the situation in UP is extremely fluid at the moment: Just compare the conclusions published yesterday by ABP to their previous opinion poll done in March (note however that the March poll was done by Nielsen, not by CSDS)
March 2016 (ABP News)
BSP : 185 (31% vote)
BJP : 120 (24% vote)
SP: 80 (23% vote)
Aiugust 2016 (ABP News)
BSP: 108 (26% vote)
BJP : 130 (27% vote)
SP: 146 (30% vote)
The divergence between the two polls is MASSIVE. From being close to a majority at 185, Mayawati is now a poor third, barely managing to reach double digits. SP has seen a massive jump from 23% to 30% and BJP has also added a significant 3%, going from 24% to 27%. How did Mayawati manage to drop from 31% to 26% so suddenly?
All it can mean is that the situation on the ground is extremely fluid. The voter is approaching this election with an open mind. Whoever manages to create a perception of victory will cross the majority mark. I am 100% sure it won’t be a hung assembly… the voter just hasn’t decided yet.
(2) Mayawati’s Dalit+Muslim combo is not happening: The worst nightmare for BJP is a Dalit+Muslim vote bank. It doesn’t just mean defeat in Uttar Pradesh. The philosophical implications of Dalit+Muslim axis are massive: it is the ultimate dream of all Break India forces. It strikes at the very heart of Hindu society and undermines us in a very fundamental manner. Thankfully, it does not seem to be happening at all:
So, Muslims are going to Mullah Mulayam by an overwhelming margin. On top of that, there is now incredible confusion about who the secular frontrunner is : SP or BSP. That’s when Muslims don’t know who to vote tactically for. Advantage BJP.
(3) Dayashankar’s comments have not given Mayawati an edge: This survey was done between July 23 and August 7, right after Dayashankar Singh made his comments on July 21. This poll was done at the peak of the media campaign against BJP over Dalits. And it shows Mayawati lagging behind at No. 3! Wow!
What we are seeing is possibly a reflection of Mayawati’s organizational weakness. It is time to swoop in and finish BSP.
See, the way parties like BSP work is this: they expect to win and lose alternate elections. So, when they are in power, they engage in loot and plunder which is supposed to last them during their 5 years in the Opposition. The weakness in this strategy is that if they lose two successive elections, there is not enough loot left to last them another 5 years in the Opposition. As a result, the party goes into a collapse. The BSP will spend between 2012-2017 what it plundered between 2007-2012. If they lose 2017, there is no backup plan. Their “investors” will pull out the money because they can’t wait 10 years for a return on investment. In 2014, the BSP did not win a single seat. This is the weakest the BSP has been in more than a decade. Defeat them in UP this time and BSP will disintegrate before 2019, completely surrendering all its votes to BJP.
There is a reason most of the media has been cheering Mayawati in the run up to these polls. If she loses 2017, it may be all over for her party. And Mayawati, with her anti-Manuvaad rhetoric, fires up the imagination of the anti-Hindu liberals in a manner that SP does not.
(4) BJP needs to consolidate non-Yadav OBC votes: The real problem for the BJP lurks here.
Yes, 38% is way ahead of everyone else. But it is far from the 50%+ consolidation that SP is getting among its Yadav and Muslim voters. Now admittedly, “other OBCs” are a heterogeneous collection of numerous castes and subcastes, unlike Yadavs, for instance. But for BJP to win, that number among the other OBCs needs to reach 50%. Push it to 50% and Uttar Pradesh is ours.
And how can that consolidation happen? By announcing Keshav Maurya as CM candidate. Do it now. NOW!