Uttar Pradesh : BJP needs a CM face

Considering that ABP News survey from yesterday was done by CSDS, by far the most respected survey agency, we have to take these predictions seriously.

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Mayawati at No. 3? Hmmmm… and we had grown used to thinking that she is the main challenger. Let’s see the story in vote shares:

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The surprise is that SP has suddenly jumped from being No.3 to No. 1! So, what gives the SP this 3% advantage. The real problem is here:

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With no CM candidate declared for the BJP campaign, there is no face to present to the voter. Elections in India have become more and more presidential. Narendra Modi himself is the biggest beneficiary of this transformation. And only heaven knows when Modi-Shah will understand that the same applies to state elections.

Give us a face Amit Shah and watch that 3% gap with SP disappear.

Nevertheless, there are a lot of interesting takeaways from the ABP news poll.

(1) First, the situation in UP is extremely fluid at the moment: Just compare the conclusions published yesterday by ABP to their previous opinion poll done in March (note however that the March poll was done by Nielsen, not by CSDS)

March 2016 (ABP News)

BSP : 185  (31% vote)

BJP : 120 (24% vote)

SP: 80 (23% vote)

Aiugust 2016 (ABP News)

BSP: 108 (26% vote)

BJP : 130 (27% vote)

SP: 146 (30% vote)

The divergence between the two polls is MASSIVE. From being close to a majority at 185, Mayawati is now a poor third, barely managing to reach double digits. SP has seen a massive jump from 23% to 30% and BJP has also added a significant 3%, going from 24% to 27%. How did Mayawati manage to drop from 31% to 26% so suddenly?

All it can mean is that the situation on the ground is extremely fluid. The voter is approaching this election with an open mind. Whoever manages to create a perception of victory will cross the majority mark. I am 100% sure it won’t be a hung assembly… the voter just hasn’t decided yet.

(2) Mayawati’s Dalit+Muslim combo is not happening:  The worst nightmare for BJP is a Dalit+Muslim vote bank. It doesn’t just mean defeat in Uttar Pradesh. The philosophical implications of Dalit+Muslim axis are massive: it is the ultimate dream of all Break India forces. It strikes at the very heart of Hindu society and undermines us in a very fundamental manner. Thankfully, it does not seem to be happening at all:

So, Muslims are going to Mullah Mulayam by an overwhelming margin. On top of that, there is now incredible confusion about who the secular frontrunner is : SP or BSP. That’s when Muslims don’t know who to vote tactically for. Advantage BJP.

(3) Dayashankar’s comments have not given Mayawati an edge: This survey was done between July 23 and August 7, right after Dayashankar Singh made his comments on July 21. This poll was done at the peak of the media campaign against BJP over Dalits. And it shows Mayawati lagging behind at No. 3! Wow!

What we are seeing is possibly a reflection of Mayawati’s organizational weakness. It is time to swoop in and finish BSP.

See, the way parties like BSP work is this: they expect to win and lose alternate elections. So, when they are in power, they engage in loot and plunder which is supposed to last them during their 5 years in the Opposition. The weakness in this strategy is that if they lose two successive elections, there is not enough loot left to last them another 5 years in the Opposition. As a result, the party goes into a collapse. The BSP will spend between 2012-2017 what it plundered between 2007-2012. If they lose 2017, there is no backup plan. Their “investors” will pull out the money because they can’t wait 10 years for a return on investment. In 2014, the BSP did not win a single seat. This is the weakest the BSP has been in more than a decade. Defeat them in UP this time and BSP will disintegrate before 2019, completely surrendering all its votes to BJP.

There is a reason most of the media has been cheering Mayawati in the run up to these polls. If she loses 2017, it may be all over for her party. And Mayawati, with her anti-Manuvaad rhetoric, fires up the imagination of the anti-Hindu liberals in a manner that SP does not.

(4) BJP needs to consolidate non-Yadav OBC votes: The real problem for the BJP lurks here.

Yes, 38% is way ahead of everyone else. But it is far from the 50%+ consolidation that SP is getting among its Yadav and Muslim voters. Now admittedly, “other OBCs”  are a heterogeneous collection of numerous castes and subcastes, unlike Yadavs, for instance. But for BJP to win, that number among the other OBCs needs to reach 50%. Push it to 50% and Uttar Pradesh is ours.

And how can that consolidation happen? By announcing Keshav Maurya as CM candidate. Do it now. NOW!

 

 

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20 thoughts on “Uttar Pradesh : BJP needs a CM face

  1. All of you here.Just forget for a moment,the controversies,media bias,etc and read this when you have the time.It is worth your time.It looks at the larger picture of what is happening and how Modi is changing India. Titled “India:The Giant Awakens” by Aberdeen Asset Management,one of the world’s largest money managers.The opening quote by Mark Twain on India is so cool.Do read it RWs. http://thinkingaloud.aberdeen-asset.co.uk/en/thinkingaloud/the-bigger-picture/india-the-giant-awakens

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  2. People vote differently when it comes to the assembly elections. It is difficult for the ‘national parties’ ( without a strong local leader) to compete against regional parties which are invariably controlled by one person. So I don’t expect BJP winning UP election on its own. There is a faint chance only if the votes get scattered.

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  3. The Muslims may side with the Yadav clan for now, but if they sense Maya memsab is in better position to beat BJP, they will not hesitate to ditch SP and vote BSP en-masse. So, we can never assume that Dalit + Muslim combine will definitely not happen.

    That aside, I agree that a much larger percentage of non-Yadav OBC(s) need to be pulled under BJP’s umbrella. Simultaneously, Maya’s Dalit foundation need to be broken (possibly by pulling prominent Dalit leaders into our fold) so that a realistic winning Dalit + Muslim combination does not materialize. And lastly, as you have said, we need a CM face, Kesav Maurya seems to be the best bet at the moment.

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    1. This is why it is so important to keep Mayawati’s party leaking. So that Muslims dont shift completely to her.

      But at the same time, BJP must walk a fine line. Mayawati must not be seen as out of the contest. She should keep looking somewhat competitive so that M vote splits between her and SP.

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  4. I think BJP has not learnt any lessons from Bihar, or are they waiting for any opportunity to declare CM candidate or there is too much infighting in BJP?? Earlier Rajnath was offered CM candidature which he declined. This made difficult for BJP to declare, since now everybody except him has same experience. If they make adityanath as candidate then uma will be unhappy and vice versa. Same thing for Kesay Mourya. The problem with BJP is that, they have too many leaders, which prevents them making any CM candidate. They did not nurture any leader till 2016 and are now paying price.

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    1. Indeed, it is stunning that BJP did not cultivate a clear CM face in UP. The 73/80 brought a flood of expectations and everyone jumped into the ring. Now paying the price for sleeping too long.

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  5. BSP is leaking like shiev. Hope this prediction is little too early and hope the thing would change after Narendra Modi start canvassing in the earnest. Some BJP leaders should convince Muslim voters that if they vote against BJP like ships they should not expect much in return from BJP. All relations are on give and take bases. Also remind them that there was huge racial riots between Yadavas and Muslims.

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    1. He he. There are two advantages to BSP leaking. One, it hurts Maya directly. But where it also hurts her indirectly is that Muslims might worry about her joining hands with BJP post poll.

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  6. Is it possible for BJP to take a bold decision of projecting a muslim candidate in their midst like Mukthar Abbas Naquvi or Sha Nawaz Hussain ?
    Will it affect other votes?

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  7. Very good analysis. Looking a the percentage of voter shift between the 2 surveys, I guess lot of voters are slowly making their mind to go with BJP. One positive factor about BJP voter is, once he decides to vote for BJP, that decision stands. Now it is up to BJP leaders to make sure that a lot many voters make up their mind. As you said naming the CM candidate would be one way of making it sure.

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    1. It is hard to imagine SP crossing its 2012 peak of 29.5%. It is incredibly rare for an incumbent government to increase its vote share. Even Modi lost vote share in Gujarat in 2012. Hard to imagine Akhilesh being more popular in UP than Modi in Gujarat.

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  8. Guys .. Latest news from UP is that BJP going to repeat 2014 in UP… my close Communal Forces just now visiting in UP since last 15 days to sense public mood and they gave me this report.. now you can question accuracy of my single source of information but I can confirm you guys same kind of information I got before 2014 election and my information was telling that BJP is wining almost all seats in UP and I was not believing this even AMIt shah was expecting 55 and BJP ended with 73 out of 80….smile ..so I am confident now.. for BJP.. BSP is going to disappear just like Baduuruddin in Assam…

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