Who is a bigger headache: Rahul or Kejriwal?

The other day when I wrote about BJP’s upcoming victory in Assam, there was a little discussion kicked off in the comments that I feel deserves a post by itself. In my post, I had made the point that the PM dreams of regional players like Kejriwal, Nitish or Mayawati actually help Modi in 2019. I argued that the presence of multiple small challengers none of whom can hope to score 272 in 2019 keeps the focus away from the opposition coalescing around Rahul Gandhi. And since people have shown a marked preference for decisive clear mandates in the last 15 years, a heap of small Opposition leaders pitching for a hung Parliament will lose badly to Modi who will hit the campaign trail asking for 300+.

Following this, there was a little debate in the comments over whether it is better for the Congress or the AAP to win Punjab. My view was that an AAP victory is better because it chokes out the Congress in the state. Even though Kejriwal gets on our nerves, ultimately the real national level enemy is Congress. A weak Congress is always good news for the BJP. But then, there was the counterview that while AAP may be small now, it is a bigger challenger because Kejriwal is a much smarter man than Rahul Gandhi ever can be. 

I find this question very interesting and I am eager to hear everyone’s views on this: who is the bigger threat: Rahul or Kejriwal? While Congress is certainly way bigger than AAP, is this balanced out by the fact that Kejriwal is a much more cunning man and therefore poses a much bigger potential threat.

So, let me put these two questions explicitly to you all:

Q1) Who is a bigger threat: Rahul or Kejriwal?

Q2) Who would you like to see winning Punjab next year: Congress or AAP? 

From what we have been hearing, I think we can safely rule out the possibility of an SAD-BJP victory, although I suspect that the Badals are stronger than the media thinks.

Frankly, I feel Punjab needs a shake up. It’s good for both Punjab and the BJP. While the SAD is an “ally” of the BJP, it has mostly kept the BJP on the fringes in the state. The BJP contests a mere 20 out of the available 130 Assembly seats and just 3 out of the 13 available Lok Sabha seats in the state. A shake up in the political establishment of Punjab might give the BJP a chance to reinvent and relaunch itself in Punjab. In this respect, the appointment of Vijay Sampla, a Dalit leader as BJP state president in Punjab seems like a good step. Punjab is the state with the largest number of Dalits as a % of the population and it is time the BJP thought about its own future in Punjab beyond existing as an appendage of the Badals. And let’s face it: from dynasty to corruption, there is very little that SAD has done to make us proud.

Ok, back to the question at hand. Who is a bigger threat: Rahul or Kejriwal? I always think that the RW systematically overestimates Kejriwal because of the constant media attention he gets. It does not help that Kejriwal has long forgotten about his day job as Chief Minister of Delhi and is currently a full time anti-BJP Twitter troll. Yes, Kejriwal gets on our nerves. And yes, we know that Kejriwal enjoys getting on our nerves.

No better example of Kejriwal getting on our nerves than his recent ridiculous “offer” to give water to drought stricken Latur. Of course, what he meant was that Haryana government would supply the water and the Railways would carry it to Latur, while Kejriwal himself would take out 526 cr worth of ads taking credit. There is simply no way Kejriwal could have believed that the government would accept his outlandish offer to carry water from Delhi when it might as well be carried from Miraj  or Sangli within a few kilometers of Latur. He did it simply to annoy the BJP. And who knows, he might now take out 526 crore worth of ads accusing the BJP government of refusing his generous offer…lol. You KNOW he is capable of that.

But should we let such annoyance push us to overestimate his strength? There is no doubt that Kejriwal is a cunning politician. Winning Delhi in such a short time by a landslide is no small achievement. But if we overestimate him, I think we are unfairly underestimating the political acumen of other regional leaders. Does it really make sense to believe that people like Mulayam and Kanshi Ram were not as smart as Kejriwal? In fact, they built much bigger parties and ruled much bigger states. Yet, the national plans of the SP and the BSP have always remained a joke. India is HUGE. And AAP’s feat of sweeping a state within months of formation is not without parallel. The TDP and AGP also began their lives with such sweeps. Take a moment to think about the size of undivided Andhra Pradesh…think of the vast rural expanses across which the TDP often campaigned by bullock cart.  In contrast, think of the size of Delhi and how quickly Kejriwal was able to get his message across to every person using 2013 technology. Now think back to the bullock cart in the 80s that the TDP had to employ across rural Andhra. Suddenly, Kejriwal’s feat doesn’t seem so impressive, does it?

For me, it all comes back to the same thing: India is HUGE. And I feel that Kejriwal’s party suffers from a fatal flaw in that it is a one person party like most other regional leaders. To spread out across India, Kejriwal will have to offer leaders in states and these state leaders might not be absolutely loyal to him. If AAP wins Punjab, they will have to find a CM for the state. Delhi is small. Punjab is big. The new AAP CM of Punjab will have no incentive to be loyal to Kejriwal. Unless Kejriwal installs Sisodia as Delhi CM and becomes Punjab CM himself! This is an untenable plan…how many times can he keep quitting as CM of one state and offer himself as CM candidate in another? In fact, while AAP faced a lot of humiliation by contesting 400 seats in LS polls, they would never have got a surprise breakthrough in Punjab without that gamble. Actually, Yogendra’s strategy of building a multi-faced, multi-nodal, broad based party was the right one when it comes to expansion. In the long run, I believe Kejriwal will realize that he concentrated all the power in his hands too early. I remember early 2014 when lots of random people, small time celebrities and do-gooders were joining the AAP, each person seeing himself as a political entrepreneur. Kejriwal killed that spirit too early and reduced the AAP to a party of flattering sycophants. 

At least, this is how I feel. I am very eager to find out the views of others. Please please let me know 🙂

Cheers

Chaiwallah.

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20 thoughts on “Who is a bigger headache: Rahul or Kejriwal?

  1. Like I said in the other post,I think it’s better if AAP wins Punjab because Congress is the only other pan India party other than BJP and if AAP can reduce Congress to dust like they did in Delhi,that would be very nice for BJP.Like you said,SAD isn’t exactly a great party.I really don’t think that BJP and SAD will break up(and they probably shouldn’t in the next 4-5 years at least)but they should have an agreement where they contest the election separately and then tie up after it gets over.This way,BJP will get to test it’s strength in many of the seats that it doesn’t contest.

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    1. Indeed, BJP should definitely try to create some distance from SAD. There is no doubt that the Badals are corrupt. The last thing we want is some scam by the Badals taking a toll on Modi’s image.

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  2. I want Modi to be there till 2029 at least and I think that’s very possible.I think they have a very good chance of winning in 2019.By 2024,many of the initiatives would have born full fruit and the Indian economy would be growing at the 8-10% range and India will be much more developed.This in turn could give Modi another term(if Vajpayee had won 2004,I am sure that he would have won 2009 as well since his efforts started showing results in 2004-2009 but unfortunately,congress took credit and won in 2009.I don’t think that will happen this time.).Swamy said that the opponents are scared that if Modi wins in 2019,he could be there till 2029 and he is spot on.Congress will become a glorified regional party by 2019 and will hopefully be reduced to dust in most areas by 2024.AAP is not a threat at the moment.It takes a lot of effort to build a pan-India party and I think they will need another 10 years at least.Growth of AAP is a big +ve for BJP since it would ensure that the anti-BJP votes get split and that is why I am positive that BJP will win at least the next 2 Lok Sabha elections as well.

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    1. His real headache begins with Punjab. Let’s see how he can manage a second CM who runs a bigger state than his own. This is usually the problem with all single personality parties.

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  3. Kejriwal is a bigger threat for Modi.
    Kejriwal needs to score just about 40 plus seats in Lok Sabha to pose a serious threat to Modi ( if NDA/BJP gets around 200 seats only in 2019). Anything above 220 for NDA ( with significant gains of potential allies like aiadmk , bjd , trs ) – it will be Modi once again for PM. But the fate of the country may not be too different ( then what it is now ). Modi will once again play to the gallery of feminists, dalits , jats , other significant castes in each state. All propoganda and marketing – not any substantive improvement in quality nor content.

    And even with AAP or congress or anybody else it will not be different . or could be even worser – as these could all be ‘freebie’ and ‘subsidies’ sarkaar. Promising the sky and robbing some to indulge many !!

    Unless there is a govt that reigns in population growth, decentralizes power substantially, puts restriction on migrations ( between states, within states), encourages merit and fairplay, improves federalism, gets in black money , punishes/ penalizes the corrupt, cleans the electoral rolls and aadhar cards —- there is no hope for this country irrespective of Modi , AK or RG !!!

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    1. Actually, 40 Lok Sabha seats is a very high bar. With the exception of BJP and Congress and things like Janata Dal, I wonder who has ever crossed 40 Lok Sabha seats.

      The “career” best of CPI(M) is just 43, achieved in 2004. Laloo has never crossed 30, Nitish has never crossed 25, Mulayam has never crossed 40 and Mayawati has never crossed 20! In fact, the 40+ club in Indian politics is a very exclusive one. This is whatI am trying to point out, India is huge…and each Lok Sabha seat is a very high wall to climb!

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      1. Well, AAP did achieve 67 seats out of 70 in Delhi assembly . Something deemed impossible. BJP too reached 272 in 2014 ( from 2 seats in 1984 ).And Advani himself was unwilling/unsure of crossing 200 !!!. DMK in 1996 achieved 230 plus seats in a 239 seat assembly in TN. If AAP gets into a seat sharing ( tacit or blatant) with Congress , others -anything can happen. And you yourself had said once earlier that a week is a long time in politics – 2019 is 3 years away to speculate .

        And yes this is supposed to be Dynastycrooks website to expose Dynastycrooks – do not let it become a website singing paens for Modi and BJP wantonly ignoring/ trivialising the blunders galore of bjp and Modi !!! Delhi and Bihar did happen in last one year . A statesmanisque Modi is just another version of sickular Congress though more articulate and skilled in propoganda and marketing.

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  4. I believe Mr. Modi should have called Kejriwal’s bluff. Instruct Haryana government not to give a drop of water more than it already gives and get the water from the Delhites’ share and take it to Maharashtra. Let Delhites get angry with Kejriwal.

    As far as CW’s question is concerned, let us (BJP) not jump from one goal to another. Let us concentrate on ‘Congress Mukta Bharat’. Once we achieve that or even close to achieving that, we can work on ‘Kejri Mukta Bharat’. As far as stupidity level is concerned, I rate both Kejriwal and Rahul at par. Intelligent (IQ) wise Kejriwal is more and hence more cunning.

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    1. I totally agree with you. At the moment the fight is for a Congress mukt Bharat. There will always be some annoying person somewhere like Kejriwal. Honestly, I think BJP wastes a lot of energy fighting Kejriwal. It is of course understandable….because Kejru is so damn irritating. In fact, irritating BJP seems to be Kejriwal’s main approach.

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  5. I thought even ordinary people have seen thru what AK,AAP are actually doing, thus unable to understand how this party is going to win! …unless of course the NGO’s with foreign funds are directing the show!

    AK,AAP winning 4 lok sabha seats in punjab is very questionable ….how a unknown party was able to get 4 seats. Lot of places I have read there has to be a investigation done ,the nexus between politicians,NGO’s and the drug mafia!

    Congi’s with their well established eco system with their people everywhere is more of a threat than AK or RaGa!

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  6. I want to share a secret. I hope BJP and nationalits get this first. In all the parts throughout India, the state elections are won by local strong or brand leaders except that those strong leaders are heavily sullied and exposed. The strategy for the BJP should be to make non BJP leaders heavily exposed by default and by hook or crook. The short answer is brand, which explains the old congress heavily invested in corrupt media. If BJP continues to create brand local leaders with propaganda and performance with internal razor sharp discipline to stem ambition and encourage sacrifices, the battle will be win for Aryavart after 1000 years. Punjab has not fully sullied captain as brand to beat upstart khujliwal.

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    1. Indeed, 2014 was the first step for “regional leaders” of secular parties to look tired and sullied. BJP has recently taken some good decisions at regional level. By installing BSY, they have already won Karnataka. In UP, I did not know who Keshav Maurya is, but considering that the media began to attack him from Day 1, he seems like a smart choice.

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  7. Just atop giving importance to kejri..he know the tactics n getting publicity in way of trolling by RW…he is trying to gain sympathy. ..n much more cunning than congi…ever watch RW on twitter they r busy in fighting with aaptards. ..n congi get their propo on mark as RW r busy is CM of small state…kejri may harm us but atleast afetr 10 15 years. ..lets fight with congi n anti nationals till than…aap will not have pan india presence as kejri will not allow any one to grow

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      1. He is good n smart troll…I admit it…but its time RW starts focus on congress mukt bharat…eco system of congi will take more time to collapse. .n for kejri let him keep trolling on twitter. …

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