[Analysis] Was the Modi government complicit in 2002 riots? What do the numbers say?

This is a post I wanted to write for a very long time. Since the beginning of time, the Gujarat govt was accused of helping to massacre Muslims in 2002 riots. Never mind the repeated court verdicts exonerating the Prime Minister, never mind the court verdicts thrashing the lies spread by the likes of Sanjiv Bhatt. We wont get into that because I don’t think there is anything on those lines that hasn’t been said before. Instead, I will try to come to a conclusion based purely on numbers.

Let me explain what I mean. How can we use numbers to conclude that there has been some wrongdoing? For instance, suppose there is a student who has a record of consistently scoring a mere 40-50% in Chemistry all through school. The same student who has struggled with Chemistry all his life suddenly takes the board exam and ends up scoring 99%! In fact, suppose it so happens that all the students in the school end up getting 99% or more! This could be fairly convincing evidence that something wrong has happened: either kids managed to cheat or the paper was leaked, or maybe the board simply graded the wrong set of papers. On the contrary, if there is a very high correlation between previous performance of students at school with their board exam scores, it is safe to conclude that everything was free and fair and no external agent was involved.

The population of Gujarat in the year 2002 was roughly 10% Muslim and 90% Hindu. Suppose now that a natural calamity were to strike Gujarat, say an earthquake. Since earthquakes do not distinguish between Hindu and Muslim, you would expect roughly 10% of the victims of the earthquake to be Muslim and about 90% to be Hindu.

But a riot is not a natural calamity. It’s a physical fight between two communities. In order to prevent our thinking from being emotionally charged, let us say there are two teams that are having a fight with water balloons. But the two teams are not evenly matched. In fact, Team B has just 10 players and Team A has as many as 90 players. Assuming that individuals on both teams are approximately equal in their water balloon throwing skills, how would the scores of the two teams against each other compare?

It is fairly easy to see that Team A which has 90 players would easily score much more than Team B. By how much? Since Team A has 9 times as many players as Team B, clearly you could expect that Team A would score 9 times more than Team B. This is what would happen if the game was not rigged. 

Now consider the following possibilities:

A. Suppose we observe that despite having 9 times as many players as Team B, the Team A has scored only twice as much as Team B! In this case, we can safely conclude that the game was somehow rigged in favor of Team B….that there was some X factor…some invisible hand that was working behind the  scenes

B. Suppose that we observe that Team A has scored 20 times as much as Team B. But the expected advantage for Team A is merely 9:1 whereas they have scored 20:1. In this case, we can safely conclude that the game was rigged in favor of Team A. 

C. Only if the score of Team A was about 9 times more (perhaps in the range of 8-10) than Team B,  could you conclude that the game was free and fair with no external agents involved.

I am sure you can see where this is going. Now, it is truly horrific to count relative body counts of communities, so first of all I must apologize for hurting anyone’s sentiments. Indeed, every single life that was lost in Gujarat riots was a precious human life that should never have been lost and can never be replaced. Every life lost in the riot was a grave injustice to the person and his relatives and friends. My aim is not to belittle the suffering of anyone, I just want to find out the truth….and having no other way, I am just using numbers to come to a conclusion. As such, once again emphasizing that every human life is priceless, let me apply this approach to the Gujarat riots.

Let’s see. There were 790 Muslims and 254 Hindus killed during the riots. That’s 3:1. Since there were 9 times more Hindus in Gujarat than Muslims, you would expect the ratio to be 9:1. In fact, if Modi sarkar had not interfered at all during 2002, Hindu-Muslim clashes would have killed 9 times as many Muslims as Hindus. But the data shows that the observed ratio was much less at 3:1! What does that mean? It means that Modi government stepped in to proactively to save Muslims from violence! Without the active intervention of Modi sarkar to protect Muslims, a lot more Muslims would have died in 2002!

I feel this test is quite conclusive and should completely lay to rest all doubts around the conduct of the Modi government in 2002. If Modi government was in fact complicit in killing Muslims, the ratio would have been much more than 9:1! Whereas here we see that the ratio is a mere 3:1! Forget the wild allegations of Modi being complicit in killing Muslims, it is fairly clear that Modi administration took active steps to protect Muslims.

There you have it! Again, I must emphasize that I do not want to disrespect the loss of any innocent human life, I just wanted to analyze and find the truth.

 

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22 thoughts on “[Analysis] Was the Modi government complicit in 2002 riots? What do the numbers say?

  1. Well the country of Prophet Mohammed ( Saudi Arabia) has bestowed their highest civilian honour on Sickular Statesman Modi – so the Muslims now know the truth that Modi is actually Sickular , Minority friendly and less of Hindutwadi !!!

    On the contrary during his tenure as PM more Hindus have been killed without much of a whimper ( law and order after all is state subject! !) and Muslims and Christians have managed to put him on the defensive on media and before other countries.

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    1. Hi Asli,
      Welcome to commenting on this blog. I totally understand your feelings and respect them. I myself had this post in mind for many months, but did not want to write it out exactly for the reasons you mention. It is distasteful to talk of deaths in this way, but I felt this is something that should have been done by somebody. After all, even the New York Times made a list of the worst dictators in history by number of people and % of world population killed. No matter how bad it makes us feel, the truth is the most important issue of all.

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    2. Well what is important to dharmics is truth and truth alone.Sentiment and ideology can not interfere in the pursuit of truth.It is extremely unfortunate that Indians died in this riot (or any riot for that matter) but here we are trying to determine if or if not steps were taken to prevent the riots.

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      1. Indeed, we are only using data here. Data about death is regularly used for a number of purposes, such as insurance companies, road safety issues, health hazards, studying epidemics etc. We study infant mortality trying to measure development. In this post, we are using data to decide if steps were taken to prevent deaths of hundreds of our fellow Indians. As long we are only interested in the truth, I see no harm.

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  2. And we know how Narendra Modi Sarkar saved many more Muslims from getting killed. There were more Hindu rioters killed by the police bullets in 2002 racial riots than any other racial riots in India.

    I want to point out one very overlooked fact about the racial riots in Gujarat (most active riots are always in Ahmedabad). In all racial riots in Gujarat, a major participants against Muslims have always been from Sindhi community, which has not forgotten what happened to them during 1947 partition. Sindhi participants are usually joined by ‘Rabari’ (milkmen) and ‘Vaghari’ community-a B.C. community, while Brahmin, Baniya etc. communities are just among ‘Egging on from back ground’ communities.

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  3. The NDA and BJP had nothing to gain by conducting the riots.Infact it really tainted their image and was one of the factors that caused their defeat in 2004.I strongly suspect that congress was hand in glove with the mob that conducted the Godhra Carnage.The GJ Govt. asked for additional police forces but the adjoining Congi govt.s refused.There is also a lot of proven involvement of Congress cadres and leaders.

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    1. But another interpretation could be that narendra modi won in 2014 solely because of witch hunt. ( which came out cropper ) by media and congress to blame him for the post godhra riots !!

      Moreover if one looks at similar data for other riots ( under congress rule ) then this many hindus did not die … So what would one infer ???

      Maybe ” all politicians say one thing but practise something else” !!!!

      2 years post his elections – Modi has yet to commence ridding illegal bangladeshis . and instead pursuing a statesmanisque demeanor.
      Similarly not prosecuted any big fry on Corruption. Nor made substantive progress on black money recovery or punishing the media crooks.

      Life goes on. All this is just passtime. Nothing big deal.

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      1. Firstly we must realize that Modi is a human being with of course great virtues. As a PM, from a party which is termed as right leaning, he has to tread very cautiously. His every action is watched suspiciously by not only corrupt opposition parties, but also Indian public who are very vulnerable to anti-propaganda. This was instanced by Award wapsi program conducted by anti-National intellectual pigs which took it’s toll in Bihar elections. It is pitiable that while leaders of other great countries are admiring Modi for his forthright statesmanship and clean administration, our own people in India are working against him. A scumbag like Kejriwal calls PM as ISI agent and you do not expect Modi to stoop to his level to fight him. Modi has his targets and attention somewhere high. We know he is a very shrewd politician. Once his goals are accomplished for India, he will not hesitate to rub off the anti-national worms from the face of the planet.

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  4. This analysis defiantly again proves beyond doubt that Mr Modi did help prevent a massacre!

    I am sure people should understand that sole purpose of this analysis is only to prove a point.

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  5. Muslims in Gujarat were lucky that, modi was cm at that time. Many muslims were saved because of his timely action. Sadly in this country Muslims still curse him.

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    1. It was reported that in 2014 polls, most of the Muslim majority constituencies in Gujarat voted for Modi and BJP. Modi has that kind of rapport among Gujarati Muslims. But the Muslims in other States do not think like that. They either listen to Congress/Communist propaganda or simply listen to their religious leaders who keep them blind with fatwas. The day Muslims start using their brains and realize that they are part of our civilization, India will shine again.

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  6. This one I differ on. Not because of the subject matter. But because statistics can be tricky.

    In this case, one just cannot take the total population of Gujarat as a measure. By most measures, we have to ignore almost all the children and women (almost but not quite). Then we have to consider the old people, the handicapped, the sick etc. Then look at the areas where the riots took place and the demographics there. Then add in the office going versus the jobless etc. So, it is a very complex analysis to make a call on.

    On the other hand, the flat numbers are out there. Whereas we cannot deny 700+ deaths of Muslims, what is clearly ignored by the sickular press and the world haters such as NYT, WP etc is the 250+ Hindus who also died. Apparently they just don’t exist. As I mentioned elsewhere, a single death was enough for the media to dance but 250+ is to be ignored.

    What should also be made clear is – when mobs rule, to simply blame one person claiming either inactivity or active coercion without proof, even after rigorous examinations of the court is basically showing a tactical move rather than what happened.

    Instead most of BJP spokesmen get into a compare game with 1984, Bhagalpur, etc. NM doesn’t need that. Simply pointing out the facts and challenging the sickulars to prove otherwise is all that is needed. And many are not even aware of the other side of the coin such as the Moplah rebellion and these should be highlighted as well. Again, not as a compare point; but to show that this idea of eternal victimhood has little basis on reality.

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    1. Statistics are just statistics. What you mentioned about children, women and handicapped etc. numbers nullify on both sides. So the consideration is not as bad as it sounds.

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  7. Speaking of stats and numbers, math genius Rana Ayyub strikes:
    “273 farmers committed suicide in past 3 months in Marathwada. Average of a 9 farmers each day taking their lives.”
    LOL

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  8. People may find it distasteful but analysis of such incidents is to be done in cold blooded manner. And one can’t disagree with Shan Shen. Many variables are involved. Riots are horrific, stupid and most inhumane thing people resort to in a civilized society.
    And it’s very good to see how people here discuss the posts in a civilized manner. Let the sanity prevail. Amen.

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