This is a post I wanted to write for a very long time. Since the beginning of time, the Gujarat govt was accused of helping to massacre Muslims in 2002 riots. Never mind the repeated court verdicts exonerating the Prime Minister, never mind the court verdicts thrashing the lies spread by the likes of Sanjiv Bhatt. We wont get into that because I don’t think there is anything on those lines that hasn’t been said before. Instead, I will try to come to a conclusion based purely on numbers.
Let me explain what I mean. How can we use numbers to conclude that there has been some wrongdoing? For instance, suppose there is a student who has a record of consistently scoring a mere 40-50% in Chemistry all through school. The same student who has struggled with Chemistry all his life suddenly takes the board exam and ends up scoring 99%! In fact, suppose it so happens that all the students in the school end up getting 99% or more! This could be fairly convincing evidence that something wrong has happened: either kids managed to cheat or the paper was leaked, or maybe the board simply graded the wrong set of papers. On the contrary, if there is a very high correlation between previous performance of students at school with their board exam scores, it is safe to conclude that everything was free and fair and no external agent was involved.
The population of Gujarat in the year 2002 was roughly 10% Muslim and 90% Hindu. Suppose now that a natural calamity were to strike Gujarat, say an earthquake. Since earthquakes do not distinguish between Hindu and Muslim, you would expect roughly 10% of the victims of the earthquake to be Muslim and about 90% to be Hindu.
But a riot is not a natural calamity. It’s a physical fight between two communities. In order to prevent our thinking from being emotionally charged, let us say there are two teams that are having a fight with water balloons. But the two teams are not evenly matched. In fact, Team B has just 10 players and Team A has as many as 90 players. Assuming that individuals on both teams are approximately equal in their water balloon throwing skills, how would the scores of the two teams against each other compare?
It is fairly easy to see that Team A which has 90 players would easily score much more than Team B. By how much? Since Team A has 9 times as many players as Team B, clearly you could expect that Team A would score 9 times more than Team B. This is what would happen if the game was not rigged.
Now consider the following possibilities:
A. Suppose we observe that despite having 9 times as many players as Team B, the Team A has scored only twice as much as Team B! In this case, we can safely conclude that the game was somehow rigged in favor of Team B….that there was some X factor…some invisible hand that was working behind the scenes
B. Suppose that we observe that Team A has scored 20 times as much as Team B. But the expected advantage for Team A is merely 9:1 whereas they have scored 20:1. In this case, we can safely conclude that the game was rigged in favor of Team A.
C. Only if the score of Team A was about 9 times more (perhaps in the range of 8-10) than Team B, could you conclude that the game was free and fair with no external agents involved.
I am sure you can see where this is going. Now, it is truly horrific to count relative body counts of communities, so first of all I must apologize for hurting anyone’s sentiments. Indeed, every single life that was lost in Gujarat riots was a precious human life that should never have been lost and can never be replaced. Every life lost in the riot was a grave injustice to the person and his relatives and friends. My aim is not to belittle the suffering of anyone, I just want to find out the truth….and having no other way, I am just using numbers to come to a conclusion. As such, once again emphasizing that every human life is priceless, let me apply this approach to the Gujarat riots.
Let’s see. There were 790 Muslims and 254 Hindus killed during the riots. That’s 3:1. Since there were 9 times more Hindus in Gujarat than Muslims, you would expect the ratio to be 9:1. In fact, if Modi sarkar had not interfered at all during 2002, Hindu-Muslim clashes would have killed 9 times as many Muslims as Hindus. But the data shows that the observed ratio was much less at 3:1! What does that mean? It means that Modi government stepped in to proactively to save Muslims from violence! Without the active intervention of Modi sarkar to protect Muslims, a lot more Muslims would have died in 2002!
I feel this test is quite conclusive and should completely lay to rest all doubts around the conduct of the Modi government in 2002. If Modi government was in fact complicit in killing Muslims, the ratio would have been much more than 9:1! Whereas here we see that the ratio is a mere 3:1! Forget the wild allegations of Modi being complicit in killing Muslims, it is fairly clear that Modi administration took active steps to protect Muslims.
There you have it! Again, I must emphasize that I do not want to disrespect the loss of any innocent human life, I just wanted to analyze and find the truth.