[Analysis] How Dynastycrooks hurt themselves, hurt the Dynasty, hurt the BJP and hurt India

Let me show you this map:

E2004

It’s an electoral map of India from a certain General Election. Quick: can you take a look at it and tell me which party won? The one in pink or the one in green? Would you believe if I told you that Green won? Yes, this is a map of India from the 2004 General Election. This is 2004, where the Congress won 145 seats to the BJP’s 138. The gap was a mere 7 seats and the Congress secured some 26% of the total votes. It is clear that there was no national trend visible: the BJP swept a lot of areas with low concentration of Lok Sabha seats, the Congress did well in other areas and in the final count…the Congress was 7 seats ahead! That is all there was to the Congress’ historic victory over the BJP in 2004!

Hey…but the Congress won in 2004 fair and square. No one can question the people’s mandate, whether we like it or not.

Cut to 2014, when BJP won by a massive 282-44 margin, denying even the leader of opposition post to the Congress. There wasn’t a single state where the Congress reached double digits. The BJP secured 100% of the seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and won over 85% of the seats in Uttar Pradesh (!!!!!), Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra! This was the reach, the breadth and the depth of the electoral mandate of 2014 which brought the Dynasty to its knees.

In a sane world, the Dynastycrooks of Lutyens would have accepted their defeat and conceded that Modi won India fair and square. Instead, in their blinding hatred towards Modi, Dynastycrooks raised a stink over the BJP securing 31% of the votes and tried to whine and whine and delegitimize the Modi mandate. In their desperate anger, they decided that every election in India, no matter how small, should henceforth be seen as a test for Modi. Bypolls in Bihar? Test for Modi! Delhi Student Union polls? Test for Modi! Elections for the Cantt Board in Varanasi? Test for Modi!

By the way, it is when media started talking about poll results for Varanasi Cantt Board that I first heard that there is something called a Cantt Board and elections are held for it 🙂 🙂

Of course, the idea behind this is clear. No party can win 100% of elections. So whenever BJP trips up in any small poll anywhere, the Dynastycrook media can pounce on it and call it a result of “anger towards Modi”. But, this post is not about how ridiculously unfair the media is: we all know that. This is about how the effort to delegitimize Modi’s mandate has hurt the Dynastycrooks, has hurt the Dynasty, has hurt the BJP itself and is hurting the nation.

  1. So, first of all, how does this hurt the Dynasty? The Mameluks may not realize this, but in their desperate effort to find fault with the BJP’s victories they are only making life worse for the Dynasty. When BJP is mocked for winning “just 31%” of the vote and the Shehzada gets fulsome praise for showing up in Parliament once in a while, it only hurts the Dynasty. Because they are only lowering the expectations that the Congress has of itself. Here is how the Congress has fared in elections since 2014:

Maharashtra : Congress came 3rd behind BJP & Shiv Sena, just 1 seat ahead of NCP at 4th position

Haryana: Congress came 3rd behind BJP and INLD

Jharkhand: Congress came 4th behind BJP, JMM and JVM, again 1 seat ahead of AJSU at 5th position.

Jammu & Kashmir: Congress came 4th behind PDP, BJP and NC.

Delhi: Rank undefined as Cong won 0 seats!

Yet, in each of these elections, Congress has been consoled by their Mameluks in media by telling them that their performance was better than that in Lok Sabha polls and so they should just chill. When the Congress won 26 out of 113 civic bodies in Rajasthan, Times Now credited the Congress with “SWEEPING” the polls! Recently, when Congress became the first incumbent government in Karnataka to lose BBMP polls since the 1980s, Dynastycrooks told the Congress not to worry because despite losing, they had won a few more wards than in 2010! Ironically, Dynastycrooks have unwittingly conditioned the Congress to think like a loser….to whine and look for straws to clutch amidst the wreckage of defeat. And when you think like a loser, you keep losing. Think about it: the Bihar polls are fast approaching. It’s not clear who will win, but we do know that Congress’ best hope in Bihar is to come 5th behind BJP, RJD,JDU and LJP. In fact, the Congress would be lucky to manage the 5th position. With Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP contesting 23 seats and Manjhi’s HAM(S) contesting 20 seats, Congress which will probably win 4-5 seats might actually slip to 7th position!

This is the writing on the wall. Dynastycrooks can console the Congress at their own peril. What’s next? Will Congress slip out of the Top 10 in Bihar?

2. Ok, now let us come to how this hurts the BJP. Stung by the constant cribbing over every little poll, the BJP has been unable to keep its cool. It has become equally obsessed with winning every single election. An example was when the entire Cabinet including the Prime Minister tweeted over the BJP winning some civic polls in Madhya Pradesh. Yes, the BJP understood that had it lost even a single seat in those polls, the media would have gone to town claiming that this is the end of Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

But then, isn’t the real problem with the BJP’s media management? Obviously winning polls is important; every poll is important, but is winning 100% of elections a sustainable goal? And remember, it’s not enough to win the election, you must win 100% of the seats. Remember how the BJP recently won civic body polls in Rajasthan by a 62-26 margin, but it became a “Congress SWEEP” in the media narrative? So, what is the BJP hoping for? It’s not enough to win the election, you must also win 100% of the seats. Oh wait! If you win 100% of the seats, Dynastycrooks will check the voteshares. So you must win not just 100% of the seats but also 50%+  of the vote! Is this a practical goal? Is this sustainable? The Dynastycrooks will just keep raising the demands on the BJP’s performance and the BJP will just keep obsessively chasing the higher and higher bar set by the crooks? Who is in charge, they or us? Would it not be easier and smarter to fix the media narrative?

In fact, if you look across the country, it is stunning just how much power the BJP has. Not only does it have its own majority at the Center, it is ruling most of the states. Congress is nowhere to be seen on the map except Assam and Karnataka…and Assam will fall into the BJP’s lap next year as the Dynasty watches helplessly. Never has the Congress been so weak and the BJP so powerful. And yet, ask any BJP supporter (including me…LOL 🙂 ) and he/she will say that winning Bihar is a do or die moment for the BJP. How did the Dynastycrooks manage to lay siege to the BJP in the current electoral situation? LOL! How did the herd of elephants allow itself to be hemmed in by a herd of goats?

3. Finally, how is this hurting India? It’s fairly obvious. As the ruling party, BJP’s current mentality is directly linked to the fortunes of our nation. Since the BJP feels it is under siege, so does policy making in Delhi. Since the BJP has put everything on hold until the Bihar polls, it means that the country itself is on hold till the Bihar polls. A similar situation can be expected for the six months before the UP elections…by which time it will be too late to push through the reforms needed to save our economy AND let the fruits grow in time for the 2019 elections.

Advertisements

21 thoughts on “[Analysis] How Dynastycrooks hurt themselves, hurt the Dynasty, hurt the BJP and hurt India

  1. they could say that 69% of people voted against Modi and tried to diminish the achievement because we didn’t have a single newspaper committed to calling out these sepoys who have been domesticated by congress and in this lifetime they have sold their conscience and loyalty to G&ND

    Like

  2. Brilliant piece of work. Really appreciate the foresight. I am sure PMO would be sensible to evaluate the merits of this argument and take suitable action. This is what real journalism is about. Our MSM is too busy serving the purpose of somebody even in rare occasions you don’t see such work

    Like

  3. You are absolutely bang on. There is a siege in the BJP mentality at the center and at states. The excessive scrutiny by the media is taking a toll. Inspite of being in such a commanding position they are behaving as if they are a minority govt.. BJP has to break the shackles and come out of this deplorable state of mind and should pursue the reforms more aggressively.

    Like

    1. Exactly…the media scrutiny is taking a toll on the BJP’s psyche. I always felt that one of the psychological reasons for the BJP’s defeat in Delhi was a deep seated fear of failure. Because the BJP feels like its under siege, it sees election victories as the only chance to get oxygen. This is not the BJP of Sept 13, 2013 when the party gambled on
      Narendra Modi against all entrenched political wisdom and charted a new course in political history. Back then, the BJP had just FOUR Chief Ministers but it wanted to take a big risk to win big. They took a bold decision because they gave up fear. Now BJP appears nervous and constantly scared of failing…

      Like

      1. I came first time and really became fan of you.
        Yes, I do not know ,why BJP is behaving like a opposition, when they have full majority. They really leg confidence. I see Modi going Vajpayee way, where he wants to appease eac hand every section of society. I understand his constraints, but I do not see real modi. All reforms are stalled. We have been tired after hearing that, wait till bihar election. I hope BJP will not tell after bihar elections that wait for UP elections to see reforms.

        Like

  4. In the West, the Press has an understanding with the Government. They toe the line on certain areas, they question others, etc. This is not a lack of freedom of press but a sensible arrangement where the press understand the power it wields and tries to use it for the benefit of the country rather than as a showcase for themselves or worse, to make money/power etc.

    In India, under the garb of freedom of press, it has become a free for all – especially the anti-nationals, the anti-Hindu brigade, etc.

    BJP has to learn the hard way on how to make the press act in a sensible manner. It is not an easy task, as many of these press houses have foreign backing – both power and money, thanks to the prior governments. But just because the task is tough, it does not mean they can shirk that job. It is needed and it is needed now.

    They also need to learn to use their power speakers, their smart marketing guys, to promote the right things into the press. By feeling they have to respond to everything that the press and opposition throw at them, at the same level, they are stooping down to the madness and coming across as shrill and defensive. They will be easy target for the likes of AG – when they don’t show up. But after a while , the empty chair will actually drive the TRP down and the crazy school of journalism will start dying.

    They also should teach some of their crazy guys to stop saying everything that comes into their head. As our DM found out, these press guys are waiting to pounce on anything and twist everything. I am not saying they should shut shop with the press, but don’t give them easy fodder.

    This is an uphill task, but it is for the benefit of the country.

    Like

    1. Of course Shah is a fantastic electoral tactician, but Shah is totally unable to keep the media on a leash. Just as you say, BJP needs a strategy to nurture its own media ecosystem. This is an uphill task because Congress is so deeply entrenched…but nevertheless…it is impossible to rule India without accomplishing this…

      Like

  5. I may be in a minority on this – but I think we should have the Congress around – as a left leaning national party to keep BJP honest and working hard. What they need to be is – Dynasty mukt Congress. When Congress becomes a democratic, sensible party electing true leaders through proper vetting and experience via the ranks, they will benefit the country. Two such giants in the national stage will prevent the TMC’s and DMKs and other regional junk parties from wielding national power and influencing the nation’s policies.

    Like

    1. I actually agree with you. All democracies have a Yin and Yang, i.e. left and right to keep the country balanced. Our problem is that the Congress has become completely invested in one single family. Congress today offers ZERO scope for talent. But again there are problems with the “2 party model” also…it creates a duopoly when both parties have mostly fixed bases and they get into comfort zones and stop responding to people at all. Some day, I will write an analysis on this…

      Like

  6. This is very good piece. Is anyone in the Government or the PMO or the PM himself thinking on these lines? It won’t be a bad idea for you to write this piece as a letter to PMO. Somebody needs to tell our only hope in decades (this government) where they are going wrong and what they need to do. 2019 is a very very important election which MUST be won by NDA. Or else, I just shudder to think what would happen if NDA fails to come to power.

    Like

  7. Very well analyzed writing. High time BJP has to take action against the dynasty crooks in media. Not sure whether AJ is the hurdle. BJP should give more powers to Subramanian Swamy. Even yesterday the TOIlet paper was giving huge coverage & analysis to the dumbo Raga meeting. They have not covered or reported the gathering. From the reader’s comments section I came to know that the crowd was very minimal.

    Like

  8. Looking from another point of view, playing dynasty crooks game of election politics of damned BJP wins majority seats (but varied percentage), and damned if does not, there is another big problem. If you look at those countries who have figured out how to achieve the goals through democracy, the national interest is nurtured through managing and giving away temporary ruling power in exchange of absolute synch withna nationalist agenda.
    This strategy can not be used with agenda set by anti national media and parties.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s